I know the general consensus is that Bader will pick up an easy decision win over Tito since the guy has proven to be tough as hell to take out. But is anyone here thinking about making this play? I've already thrown down on Bader by DEC at -120, but that's now at -170 giving the (T)KO option more value. Anyone think Bader will actually get Tito down and work some GnP to get the stoppage? With all that's been going on in Tito's life and him being on the decline while Bader is on the rise... I happen to think this is a strong possibility. But I want to hear other opinions and I probably need to go back and watch his fights with Hamill and Griffin. I know Tito has solid TDD, but his hands are horrible. Bader is a better version of Hamill and doesn't necessarily need KO power for this play to hit.
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Yeah, I like it. Have money on the fight to go the distance at -130, so this is a nice accompaniment to that.Comment -
I really don't see it happening.... he's only been TKO'd twice in his career both times against liddell... his previous 4 opponents are all guys that have taken people out too... especially machida... Gonna be a snoozer I thinkComment -
Ortiz has that huge Mexican head and chin. Finishing him is a pretty good accomplishment. I think Bader by decision is the play.Comment -
Hamill and Griffin don't really have the best hands and I don't remember them being successful taking Tito down. Machida is normally a point fighter known for countering and keeping distance and his gameplan didn't involve getting Tito down either. I just have a feeling we're going to see Bader with a chip on his shoulder after the Bones loss... trying to prove something. And Tito's mental state and desire to win is a huge question mark at this point. Maybe I'm way off.Comment -
It's worth a shot. But I mean, The Master Bader really isn't anything special striking wise. He had his hands full with Eric Schafer and Keith Jardine. I think he'll prefer the takedown route and winning a decision via similar method that Matt Hamill employed.Comment -
I don't think so. It's hardly outrageous to think that Bader could stop him. While Ortiz has historically been able to withstand a lot punishment before going down, he still looks very out of sorts on the feet, still gets hit a lot, and still employs the peculiar form of defense of trying to shield his eyes with his wrists whenever anyone throws punches at him. Ortiz won't be able to take Bader down, so if Bader wants to turn this into a striking match, he has that option.
I think this is a good stand-alone play, and an even better hedge for the fight going the distance.Comment -
I don't think Bader KO's Tito , like others said it will probably be a boring decisionComment -
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The odds are right, Bader can do itShut your mouth when you talk to Me!Comment -
I like this play a lot.Comment -
Its a good hedge, but Tito is constantly talking about how he has never been knocked out. Its all hes got left. He clings to it. He will pull a mosely and make sure he doesnt get finished.Comment -
The line (+366) comes out to a 22% chance of it actually happening and I feel like it should be a higher percentage than that so I'm rolling with it.
10/(10+36)= 21.7%
Remember... Tito doesn't have to get KO'd. He just needs to get put in a bad position where Bader can work decent GnP to get the stoppage.Comment -
I Get where you are coming from when you talk about forrest but Hamill can bang. His record doesn't lie. As for Machida, I think the rashad KO, Thiago KO, and Couture KO speak for themselves.... all great fighters that he completely KTFO...
Bader: 2 TKO/KO's in the UFC... 5 Total in his career
Hamill: 5 TKO/KO's in the UFC... 6 total in his career
Machida: 3 TKO/KO's in the UFC...5 Total in his careerComment -
Ortiz's melon is a huge target, i like it.Comment -
You can and should compare Tito's past performances, but he seems to get beat up worse each time out. I think Hamill was close to getting the stop and at 22% this play has value imo. Just played it myself. Thanks for the heads up.Comment -
tito should not be finished.i want him to take another 3 round beating.bader please just pick him apart.Comment -
I don't like this play. Tito is going to be coming in trying to impress. He looked to be in decent shape against Hammil. Bader has a lot going on in his head. It really showed in the Jon Jones fight. In my opinion, Bader is going to come in and look for a safe win here. Tito is hard to finish and Bader is probably going to play a very safe game. Bader is also known for slowing down later on in the fight. The TKO/KO is still possible for sure, but for me it's still a no play even at +366.Comment -
If tito wins, it will be by submission which is +2000, good for hedging bader by decision.Comment -
Tito stating he'll be coming out swinging:
I believe this will be very similar to Randy and Lyoto, but much less brutal.
Tito gets tko'd and grabs his walking papers while he's out the door.
I'll be placing a bet, especially at +366
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