I know there are a lot of knowledgeable guys here, but there are also casual bettors and noobs who could use a few pointers as to how to go about betting to make profit. It's very easy to get caught up in this game and bet with you heart or on a whim and you can end up going broke very quickly. I know first hand as when I first started betting 2 years ago and went belly up (luckily only losing a couple hundred) 2 times in 3 months. Now, I've educated myself and taken the time to make more calculated bets and it's slowly but surely paying off.
I am just posting this to help you guys out. I know some of you may disagree with my tips and that's fine... but please debate respectfully with good reasoning. Also feel free to post your own tips in this thread! We're a small community, but growing fast everyday and this is like my home away from home. SBR rocks!
- Start slow and make small bets to build experience and confidence. Everyone wants to be that guy that hit the 12-team parlay to make $50k, but the nature of the game is that you most likely won't.
- Watch as many fights as you possibly can, study fighters key attributes/weaknesses. If you plan on betting on a particular fighter follow their Twitter account if they have one to keep up (even if you hate Twitter).
- Calculate what you think a fight line should be in your head before the lines are released. If you see value when the lines hit, make the play - many times the earlier the better.
- Stay away from heavy favorites (high juice fighters) on individual plays. Usually you're overpaying (eg. Mendes at -625) and this is a recipe to lose your money fast in the event an upset happens. I generally do not bet on any favorite over -300.
- Consistently betting on underdogs (live dogs) with good lines is a solid way to make profit in the long run. Sure you may lose 3 out of 5 picks... but your bankroll can still increase with those 2 dog wins.
- Never solely look at fighters paper records to determine an outcome (factor in recent performances, training camps, changing weight classes, weigh-ins, level of competition, etc.)
- Sign up for multiple books and shop for the best lines. Bodog is generally the worst for favorites, but can sometimes be the best for underdogs.
- Look for arbitrage (scalp)/free $ opportunities among multiple books (For instance Kongo opened at -115 at bodog, then shortly after Barry hit +170 at 5dimes. If you bet $100 on Kongo at -115 and $69.24 on Barry at +170 you make $17.71 regardless. May not sound like much... but over time it adds up).
- Only bet on fighters that you are familiar with. Never bet on every fight on the card.
- Never Never Never go ALL IN on one fight in MMA (fighters have 'off' nights and lucky punches do happen)
- Never call any fighter a lock with pure confidence (but saying "close" to a lock is OK)
- Become a Pro here at SBR and use your points to buy Sportsbook cash (I've added $200 to my 5dimes acct) in about a year
- Parlays are very tempting because of the reduced juice, but don't go crazy with them. Stick to 2 or 3 man parlays at best and only play them occasionally when you feel the most confident (eg. Anderson + GSP + Aldo)
- Wrestlers are killing it in the cage right now. I've had a lot of success taking 1-dimensional wrestlers over multi-talented BJJ guys w/ solid standup b/c they control the fight and most have great cardio. I highly advise staying away from betting against wrestlers unless you see a clear path to victory for their opponent.
- Sign up for email notifications at bestfightodds.com for new lines (good way to get a heads up and solid value)
- Never fade Vaughany (this dude knows his MMA).
I am just posting this to help you guys out. I know some of you may disagree with my tips and that's fine... but please debate respectfully with good reasoning. Also feel free to post your own tips in this thread! We're a small community, but growing fast everyday and this is like my home away from home. SBR rocks!
