Griggs/Reem, Wilcox/JZ, Masvidal/Noons

[NunyaBidness]

Hes betting in Mexico. They have no laws. Id max it too.

Ahh, I skimmed the first post and stopped at San Diego. Didn't realize they had books in TJ. Not sure how comfortable I would feel robbing them.

[sirchadwick1]

Nick, didn't know you were betting at a local book. You may be in luck then. However, don't go crazy and max your bet just b/c the line is off. I'm confident in Griggs, but he's not a huge favorite. If anything I see him winning this 60% of the time. Valentijn is likely to get cracked in a brawl sooner or later and his jaw isn't exactly steel.

[NunyaBidness]

53%? That's not that great...Vaughany seems to think it's much greater I'm guessing...because he took it at -120. I'm guessing Vaughany thinks it's at least 65%

getting +280 on a 53% shot is better than any investment Warren Buffet has ever made. That's pretty close to someone paying you 3 - 1 on the flip of a coin.

If you're making >3% in this game you're KILLING IT.

Why am I trying to help again? nevermind, you're right, don't bet it. A man wants to give you 3-1 on the flip of a coin, and you need someone to tell you if its a good idea.

[NickDiaz209]

Ahh, I skimmed the first post and stopped at San Diego. Didn't realize they had books in TJ. Not sure how comfortable I would feel robbing them.

It's a more professional place than you'd expect..you'd be surprised...I know someone who makes $300-$500 live bets there every day...now going in there and betting 500 on a +280 underdog and leaving with about 2k seems like a big deal, but I can pocket it and hop on the other side of the border in 30 seconds...not a problem.

[NickDiaz209]

getting +280 on a 53% shot is better than any investment Warren Buffet has ever made. That's pretty close to someone paying you 3 - 1 on the flip of a coin. If you're making >3% in this game you're KILLING IT. Why am I trying to help again? nevermind, you're right, don't bet it. A man wants to give you 3-1 on the flip of a coin, and you need someone to tell you if its a good idea.

lol ok I get it...it's a great bet...I'm just so nervous/excited that I wanna get a real idea as to how confident I should be

[NunyaBidness]

It's a more professional place than you'd expect..you'd be surprised...I know someone who makes $300-$500 live bets there every day...now going in there and betting 500 on a +280 underdog and leaving with about 2k seems like a big deal, but I can pocket it and hop on the other side of the border in 30 seconds...not a problem.

If this line was in vegas I would max it over and over until they turned me away. Then I would hire other people to max it.

[NickDiaz209]

If this line was in vegas I would max it over and over until they turned me away. Then I would hire other people to max it.

I hope I don't make the trip and the odds change drastically...but how could they? No one in TJ bets on fights...especially the 5th fight on the Strikeforce card

[NunyaBidness]

lol ok I get it...it's a great bet...I'm just so nervous/excited that I wanna get a real idea as to how confident I should be

It's not about confidence, it's about value.

Let's say you find a guy who gives you +5000 on every boxing squash match (ones where the favorites on sharp books are -2000 or worse). So you decide to bet every single one blindly. Should you have confidence in any single bet? No, you will go weeks and weeks losing bet after bet, but eventually some of those 50-1 shots will come in, and you should turn a profit at the end of the year. After several years you will be a rich man.

[NickDiaz209]

It's not about confidence, it's about value. Let's say you find a guy who gives you +5000 on every boxing squash match (ones where the favorites on sharp books are -2000 or worse). So you decide to bet every single one blindly. Should you have confidence in any single bet? No, you will go weeks and weeks losing bet after bet, but eventually some of those 50-1 shots will come in, and you should turn a profit at the end of the year. After several years you will be a rich man.

Yeah but this isn't betting on a bunch of +280 dawgs...this is one +280 dawg with one shot to win...if I go with my two friends and we all bet 500 each, we leave with 2k in each of our pockets........

but if he loses

[NunyaBidness]

Yeah but this isn't betting on a bunch of +280 dawgs...this is one +280 dawg with one shot to win...if I go with my two friends and we all bet 500 each, we leave with 2k in each of our pockets........

but if he loses

Its one long game of betting. Some days you're up, some days you're down. You can't let your life hang on any one event. Maybe its easier for me because I started off as a poker player. If you see edge you stick the money in, sometimes the variance hurts, but if the edge is there you've gotta hit it.

[NickDiaz209]

Its one long game of betting. Some days you're up, some days you're down. You can't let your life hang on any one event. Maybe its easier for me because I started off as a poker player. If you see edge you stick the money in, sometimes the variance hurts, but if the edge is there you've gotta hit it.

True...the only reason I was over there is because I had a dream the night before that Boston would beat Vancouver in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Only one time had that happened before, and that was when I was in Vegas and I had a dream that Henderson knocked out Wanderlei Silva, which seemed unthinkable at the time considering Wand was seemingly unbeatable at 205 and Hendo was just a Middleweight...I'll never forget that night...fukkin NickDiaz beating Gomi killed my ridiculous parlay

[Ladle]

True...the only reason I was over there is because I had a dream the night before that Boston would beat Vancouver in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Only one time had that happened before, and that was when I was in Vegas and I had a dream that Henderson knocked out Wanderlei Silva, which seemed unthinkable at the time considering Wand was seemingly unbeatable at 205 and Hendo was just a Middleweight...I'll never forget that night...fukkin NickDiaz beating Gomi killed my ridiculous parlay

Yeah, nobody cares.

Like anyone cares what you think...shut up before I kick you in your bitchass chin

Oh, intimidating words from an inbred cowering behind his computer screen.

[xelance]

on Griggs -140 as well He beat up Sefo, but that wont happen versus a very game Griggs. As for littlereems bro, Overroid is going to slaughter Werdum.

[NickDiaz209]

[quote=Ladle;10453839]

Yeah, nobody cares.



Apparently you cared enough to respond

[NickDiaz209]

Yeah, nobody cares. Oh, intimidating words from an inbred cowering behind his computer screen.

I found it....fast forward to 3:40

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq7BH5enN-k

[Ladle]

[QUOTE=NickDiaz209;10454221]

Yeah, nobody cares.



Apparently you cared enough to respond

That's what makes you such an effective troll. If nothing else, you know I respect your trolling ability.

I found it....fast forward to 3:40

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nq7BH5enN-k

Thank you for introducing this to me. I may have to use this line.

[NunyaBidness]

Griggs opens at -115 at bodog.

[NickDiaz209]

Griggs opens at -115 at bodog.

...I
Damn -115?! I think I'm gonna drive over to TJ in a couple hours to make a big bet....will keep everyone updated through my phone

[spargament]

word, if anything I am only going to put a small upset on monson... I think cormier should crush monson as well, but because he's green I won't be surprised if he makes a mistake and the proven veteran monson capitalizes on it...

Experience disparity is a gulf between monson and cormier

[Ladle]

Experience disparity is a gulf between monson and cormier

So is the ability to move.

[NickDiaz209]

So is the ability to move.

wow I agree with something you said lol

[Ladle]

wow I agree with something you said lol

You always agree with me, Nick. You just feign disagreement because you crave my attention.

[Vaughany]

[Hannibal]

Where did u get news that monson is basically a geriatric cripple?

[Ladle]

Where did u get news that monson is basically a geriatric cripple?

Various MMA analysts over the years. Reputable sources.

[sirchadwick1]

Crap, wish I had heard that before I laid down on him. Oh well... very small play so I can hope for the best.
I hope at the very least he puts up a fight or puts Cormier in some danger.

[koscheckbaby]

Monson is moving down to LHW after this fight and is weighing in the 220s. That should help Cormier control him better if they clinch or if Cormier takes him down.

[koscheckbaby]

Say what you want about Jeff Monson's BJJ accomplishments and muscles, but the guy has never really accomplished any major success in MMA. He's a top control BJJ guy that wins a lot of decisions on guys that can't wrestle. His best win was a fat, out of shape, unmotivated Sergei Kharitonov. He has a lot of wins over cans. Pretty much every name he has fought has beat him, including a green Forrest Griffin. He lost to Pedro Rizzo twice in the past few years and lost to Travis Wiuff last year. His entire game is contingent on being able to takedown and overpower his opponent, keeping them on the mat the rest of the round.

If Monson is able to takedown and control Olympic wrestler, Daniel Cormier, who apparently Cain Velasquez can't takedown in practice, something is seriously wrong.

[StanleySharp]

Griggs is going to knock out Overeem.... anything else and I'll be very surprised

[NickDiaz209]

Griggs is going to knock out Overeem.... anything else and I'll be very surprised

How confident are you?

[MMAbetMASTA]

I've given my thoughts on Griggs/Overeem and Masvidal/Noons in other threads. Just a few other things:



I think it's a pick 'em fight. You've got to think that Cavalcante has the more diverse skill set, but his recent form hasn't been very good; he didn't put on a great performance against Thomson, and he looked very rusty and slow against Katsunori Kikuno in July. Unlike the Kikuno fight, he's not going to be able to simply get a takedown and five minutes of back mount to win this fight late. I have a hunch we could see Wilcox sprawl and brawl on him, and maybe gets a few well-chosen takedowns of his own to earn a decision. That said, I wouldn't really bat an eye if JZ put him in serious jeopardy on the feet or on the ground.



Conor Heun controlled KJ Noons on the mat, so Masvidal is definitely capable of doing the same thing.



Poor bet in my opinion. Monson can barely sit down on his own due to back injuries. I'm shocked that he's capable of fighting at all.



I think people are basing their bets on the (false) assumption that, because he's Alistair's brother, he must be somewhat similar in ability and skill level.

Solid, Ladle. Thanks for the insight.

I was at the Heun fight and forgot how close that one was and that he even got noons down and stayed there. So overall do you like a play on jorge? I will check out your other discussion in the threads you're talking about.

And with regard to monson, you're right. I was just reading about the back injury thing the other day. I still might stick to a small upset bet, but yes, cormier should win decisively.

Wilcox/JZ is definitely my hardest pick... still haven't pulled the trigger.

[Nick The Greek]

Griggs, Wilcox, Noons will all take care of business Saturday night.

[v1y]

I got in on Wilcox at +140, down to +115 now at Bookmaker and -105 on 5Dimes. Good chance he tkes down JZ and lays on him for the win like Josh Thompson did

last i checked thomson won that fight by paying off the judges

[FightFightFight]

Very true, even got a 30-27 as I recall, but 29-28 wasnt absurd although it could easily have gone to JZ. Wilcox is twice the wrestler Thomson is though.

[Ladle]

I was at the Heun fight and forgot how close that one was and that he even got noons down and stayed there. So overall do you like a play on jorge? I will check out your other discussion in the threads you're talking about.

Yeah, I think he's worth a punt at the current odds. It's definitely Masvidal's fight to lose on the basis that he's a much better wrestler and submission grappler. Just depends on if he decides to play to those strengths, or indulge Noons in a stand-up fight. You never know with Masvidal.

Wilcox/JZ is definitely my hardest pick... still haven't pulled the trigger.

I'm personally going to stay away from it, but if I had to choose, I'd take Wilcox at better than even money. Good luck with whatever you decide.