MMA plays & thoughts

[bjpenn85]

cool. Belfort probably win this one, i might consider taking belfort tko/decision 1.44.
Gustaffson is my play also, later hedged with hamill decision, although i feel its pissing money away. hamill is the ufcs scott smith of absorbing punishment. its really sad

I think the pride of el salvador is an ok as i got him @ 1.60. what sucks is that nick pace decision probably wont be available. i didnt thought about that. hmm, what do you think?

[v1y]

Blanco? Really? Dude looked terrible against park (who is not that bad of a fighter admittedly), and unless you consider Damm a good win, he hasn't beaten anyone.

[sag3000]

I wouldn't say terrible. He didn't look good, but Park was playing very ellusive. Rampage didn't look to good in his decision win over Machida. Any ways, styles make fights, and in a fight between Josh Thomson and Maximo Blanco, two fighters who will be in each others face from the get go, I feel the line is off. I would've thought it should be maybe Josh -165 / Maximo +130 the former the justified favourite no doubt but not playable below -200.
Also I don't think it's always who you beat, but how you beat them
What I might regret is playing this so early. If you think this will be a beatdown, chances are the line will move against my favour and I could have gotten better price if I had waited..

[sag3000]

Starting to add to my UFC 133 bets:
1,80 units on Hendricks vs Pierce to go the Distance at -180 to win 1 unit
Was thinking of doing this in combo with Hendricks inside the distance, but since the line is not out yet and the "to go the distance" - line seems to be falling I'm jumping on this now!

[Vaughany]

Pierce is one of the most powerful dudes in the division, I wouldnt rule out him TKO/Ko'ing Hendricks.

[sag3000]

Really? I was inclined to think it could end the other way.. Hm..
Hendricks has been tko'ing some tough dudes in Brenneman and Sadollah

[Vaughany]

Really? I was inclined to think it could end the other way.. Hm..
Hendricks has been tko'ing some tough dudes in Brenneman and Sadollah

Yes it could end with Hendricks TKO'ing an overly aggressive and cocky Pierce, Hendricks has good enough boxing and power, but I just wouldnt rule out Pierce doing the same.

[NunyaBidness]

Starting to add to my UFC 133 bets:
1,80 units on Hendricks vs Pierce to go the Distance at -180 to win 1 unit
Was thinking of doing this in combo with Hendricks inside the distance, but since the line is not out yet and the "to go the distance" - line seems to be falling I'm jumping on this now!

Where'd you get this line? I want to bet the other side.

[sag3000]

Paddy Power. Line is even better for the other side now, currently at +137.

[sag3000]

Plays for UFC 130:

Straight Ups:
Mike Pyle @ +205 -- 0,3 units
Pyle is again massive underdog against an up and comming wrestler with loads of hype. Pyle is the kind of guy who is killing it in the gym tough, and Rory faded against Condit after the hard pace in round 3. Think Pyle could pull of the same here.

Alexander Gustafsson @ -190 -- 1,9 units
I said I would play The Mauler when he hit better than -200 and he did. All the Hamill backers seem confident and Te Huna did get Alexander down, but I think he is to fast for the rather slow shot of the Hammer.

Johny Hendricks @ -115 -- 1,7 units
The better wrestling creditentials, stays composed and I think he has a chance of finishing Pierce. I understand the same could happen, but I think the crisp edge goes to Hendricks, and more ways of finishing.

Props:
Hendricks vs Pierce to go the Distance @ -180 -- 1,8 units
Big power and ability to tko other opponents, but I don't see any clear mismatches in the skills of these two fighters, so most likely, and more often than 2 out of 3 times do I see this go to a decision.

Menjivar vs Pace to go the Distance @ -150 -- 1,5 units
These two guys also match up well and I see this going the distance.

Good luck everybody!

[Vaughany]

Liking this statement from Hendricks...

"They can expect a hard-fought three round, 15 minute war. I'm not expecting anything less. We're gonna go toe-to-toe and I'm getting my hand raised no matter what the cost is. I'm hoping that they have to drag me out because that's how hard I went inside the Octagon where my coaches have to lift me up just to get my hand raised. That's the kind of chance that I've been preparing for is going as hard as I can and not regretting anything."

[Chairib]

Whenever I went into most of my fights, I had the mindset of getting my hand raised by TKO on the feet. That's what it was, what my mindset has been. After watching that fight and the success Rick Story has had, you gotta be a whole fighter. That's one thing that I'm trying to do after that loss to Rick Story. I was like "You know what? He does it all. He has good stand up and he does good takedowns." That's what I'm trying to integrate into my stand up is to also use my wrestling.

This quote from Hendricks is very very interesting, especially the part in bold. He's changed up his style.

[sag3000]

Plays for UFC 133:

Straight Ups:
Mike Pyle @ +205 -- 0,3 units
Pyle is again massive underdog against an up and comming wrestler with loads of hype. Pyle is the kind of guy who is killing it in the gym tough, and Rory faded against Condit after the hard pace in round 3. Think Pyle could pull of the same here.

Alexander Gustafsson @ -190 -- 1,9 units
I said I would play The Mauler when he hit better than -200 and he did. All the Hamill backers seem confident and Te Huna did get Alexander down, but I think he is to fast for the rather slow shot of the Hammer.

Johny Hendricks @ -115 -- 1,7 units
The better wrestling creditentials, stays composed and I think he has a chance of finishing Pierce. I understand the same could happen, but I think the crisp edge goes to Hendricks, and more ways of finishing.

Props:
Hendricks vs Pierce to go the Distance @ -180 -- 1,8 units
Big power and ability to tko other opponents, but I don't see any clear mismatches in the skills of these two fighters, so most likely, and more often than 2 out of 3 times do I see this go to a decision.

Menjivar vs Pace to go the Distance @ -150 -- 1,5 units
These two guys also match up well and I see this going the distance.

Good luck everybody!

Somewhat disappointed in Pyle, but at least Rory is very legit. Menjivar vs Pace was close to finish alot of times, but still went in.
Man, you guys were right, Pierce was very strong, but my boy Johny did it for me. Really liked those knees he threw!

Income on the event: +4,5 units

[Vaughany]

Yeah gd shit Sag

[sag3000]

Yeah! Thanks How did you do yourself? I've been away for a couple of days and your thread has moved way past your results and started to look for UFC Live odds it seems

Talking of UFC Live:
I might do a four fight parlay for the first time ever - Hettes, Vemola, Sadollah and Dollaway at nearly +200?
Also I like a lot of the favourites, especially Benavidez, Figueroa and Cole Miller, but I don't think the odds are worth it.

Straight up I like Aloe Vera as well as Herman and Volkmann for two good live dogs. I find the main and co-main event to be harder to cap, and since the odds have been out for a while and the lines moved it's hard to have an oppinion without being biased by the thoughts of others..

[sag3000]

Adding to the UFC Live on VS show:

Charles Oliveira to win: 2 units @ -125
Jim Miller had the tools to beat Aloe Vera, Cerrone not so much. I was not impressed with his performance against Rocha. I know a lot of people were, but I thought it showed that Cerrone did not have the necessary killer instinct. He has finished a lot of fights with submissions, but I think Aloe Vera is too slick in his bjj-game to get caught, and standing he shows more of a killer instinct, and I don't think Cowboy can skip around en route to a dec. win here. Aloe Vera will put it to him.

Volkmann to win .8 units @ -105'
Going with what a lot of people on the board thinks!

Hettes to win + Miller vs Henderson to go the distance 2 units @ -182
Caceres is clearly outmatched and I see no mismatches in the fight between Miller and Gumby.

[omalley21]

I like these plays. GL.

[sag3000]

Thank you
Any on here who think Hettes will finish Caceres already in the 1st??

[Vaughany]

Thank you
Any on here who think Hettes will finish Caceres already in the 1st??

Would think so, but then it is his first fight in big time and he might have a few jitters and need a round or 2 to settle. Quite a few fights that have potential to finish early, I'm currently waiting for sportbet to release the "Quickest TKO/KO" and "Quickest Sub" props.

[sag3000]

Interesting, which fights do you see as 'contenders' to the fastest sub?

Adding:
Vemola by t/ko .5 units @ +200. Would have added more if I had gotten the better price like you did V!
Castillo by dec .75 units @ +187. To take the sting of my play on Volkmann.

[sag3000]

Adding:
Sadollah vs Ludwig over 2,5 rounds 2 units @ +105.
Most other books have this matchup going to the judges at -110, so I take the extra juice at half a round less. I think Sadollah will win, but lacks the power to put Ludwigs lights out.

[Vaughany]

Im thinking Hettes and Figueroa are obvious early finish possibilities. Also considering playing Vemola quickest tko/ko hedged with fight goes over 1.5

[sag3000]

I like that last play! Vemola is really going all in for that t/ko. Originally I thought this would be an easy 1st round sub for Hettes, but you were talking of UFC-jitters and stuff - got me thinking. I will have to rewatch some tapes of Caceres fights, but if I do not find the time to watch I will probably not play.

Recap:
Charles Oliveira to win: 2 units @ -125
Volkmann to win: .8 units @ -105'
Hettes to win + Miller vs Henderson to go the distance: 2 units @ -182
Sadollah vs Ludwig over 2,5 rounds: 2 units @ +105.
Vemola by t/ko: .5 units @ +200.
Castillo by dec: .75 units @ +187

So thats already 8 units on the line. Perhaps I'll settle with that, and save some resources for UFC 134.
What do you guys think the lines will be for some of the prelim-fights?
Interested in Thiago vs Mitchell and Palhares vs Miller..

[Vaughany]

I like that last play! Vemola is really going all in for that t/ko. Originally I thought this would be an easy 1st round sub for Hettes, but you were talking of UFC-jitters and stuff - got me thinking. I will have to rewatch some tapes of Caceres fights, but if I do not find the time to watch I will probably not play.

Recap:
Charles Oliveira to win: 2 units @ -125
Volkmann to win: .8 units @ -105'
Hettes to win + Miller vs Henderson to go the distance: 2 units @ -182
Sadollah vs Ludwig over 2,5 rounds: 2 units @ +105.
Vemola by t/ko: .5 units @ +200.
Castillo by dec: .75 units @ +187

So thats already 8 units on the line. Perhaps I'll settle with that, and save some resources for UFC 134.
What do you guys think the lines will be for some of the prelim-fights?
Interested in Thiago vs Mitchell and Palhares vs Miller..

Yeah, just I remember Leroy on TUF being the type of fighter who would just bounce around on the outside grinning away, then when his opponent eventually grabbed hold of him he'd either getting taken down and controlled or he'd get taken down and then triangle them, but all the time not really engaging so would eat up minutes of a fight.

Palhares vs Miller will be interesting, hopefully we get a generous line for Palhares like against BRanch where he was only -165 or something. If he is too steep at -250 or something then I will just take the Palhares by sub line as I think he can sub Miller, they are different level black-belts for sure!

[sag3000]

Recap:
Charles Oliveira to win: 2 units @ -125
Volkmann to win: .8 units @ -105
Hettes to win + Miller vs Henderson to go the distance: 2 units @ -182
Sadollah vs Ludwig over 2,5 rounds: 2 units @ +105.
Vemola by t/ko: .5 units @ +200.
Castillo by dec: .75 units @ +187

Net total: +.75 units

I was very impressed with Volkmann and Henderson, Aloe Vera and Sadollah - not so much. And Markes dominating Vemola with wrestling? This was a night which didn't go according to common belief, that's for sure.

Hettes had jitters like you predicted V, but he got the sub in the end. My two "big" plays on Sadollah-Ludwig and Miller-Henderson to go the distance cashed, but I was a bit anxious at times..

[Vaughany]

Did well to come out with profit, a lot of people had piss-poor performance thanks to Sadollah and Oliveira!

[bjpenn85]

Good job! this like winning gigantic on a regular event. big props

[sag3000]

Thanks guys, you'll get them next time! Yeah Sadollahs performance was woeful, just rewatched it.. Why did he only try to get a tkd when he was rocked??

Adding to my UFC 134 plays:

Yushin Okami to win: .5 units @ + 400.
A. Silva to win inside the distance: 2.74 units @ -137
My head is saying that Anderson will just dispose of Yushin like the rest, but still. Gotta think there is some value at +400 on a guy with that good top control. If he can follow up Chaels bell-to-bell constant pushing he might get Andy frustrated..

Still looking for Paul Harris and Paulo Thiago odds.

Do people here think Erick Silva can live up to his hype?

[Vaughany]

Really don't see how Dan Miller beats Palhares...poor dude keeps getting fed against high-level dudes!

[kmdubya]

Really don't see how Dan Miller beats Palhares...poor dude keeps getting fed against high-level dudes!

I like Miller a lot, but he has little chance in this fight. Palhares is a tank for 185. Strong and mean submissions. Miller is scrappy, but I don't see this one going his way (or the distance).

[sag3000]

Adding to the next Strikeforce event:
A. Silva to win: 1,65 units @ -165
If it's extremely well priced I will hedge with Cormier dec. but most likely I will not..

Adding to UFC 134:
Big Nog by sub: .2 units @ +600
Schaub by TKO/KO: 1 units @ +115
Most likely outcome of the fight. I do however believe that a motivated Nog can take Schaub out on the deep waters, playing it technically sound in his boxing defence in the first rounds and wear on Schaub. Getting past first and second round, rocking him in the third and sinking in a guilliotine choke as Schaub dives for a slow takedown :P
Big Nog in round three: .15 units @ +2100

[NunyaBidness]

Adding to UFC 134:
Big Nog by sub: .2 units @ +600
Schaub by TKO/KO: 1 units @ +115

I'm not in love with all the complicated hedges that everyone here does.

You've basically got Nog by sub or Schaub by KO at -155, but you can get Fight does not go distance at -160, which gives you Nog by Sub, Schaub by KO, Nog by KO, Schaub by Sub, and even win the rare technical decision (i.e.Cerrone v Varner). While these are rare, they are definitely worth the 5 cents. Especially if you're going to add in a further hedge with nog in rd 3, which is already covered in this play.

[sag3000]

Yeah, that's true.. I'll pick more wise next time

[sag3000]

Ok, so I had a bad start with picking for this event as I, like Nunya pointed out, could have covered more outcomes for the same price, but oh well. First I thought that the price on Nog by sub was very good so I played that, and afterwards I figured I should hedge with Schaub TKO/KO like I did with Rogers vs Barnett, and then I saw the "fight does not go the distance"

Anyways, added a couple more plays, and here's the recap of 'em all including aforementioned:

Straight ups:
P. Thiago to win: 1 unit @ -420 which I actually think is too steep, I had really hoped to catch this at -350 or something.
S. Nedkov to win: .35 units @ +170 after seeing some love here I thought this would be played down, but it seems the money has been coming in on Cane.
Yushin Okami to win: .5 units @ + 400

Parlays:
P. Thiago + R. Palhares: 1,69 units @ -169
I. Loveland + R. Assuncao: 1 units @ +126

Props:
A. Silva to win inside the distance: 2.74 units @ -137
Big Nog by sub: .2 units @ +600
Schaub by TKO/KO: 1 units @ +115
Big Nog in round three: .15 units @ +2100 For fun.
P. Thiago by TKO/KO: .15 units @ +650 Think he will be very motivated for a finish
P. Thiago vs D. Mitchell U2.5 rounds: .2 units @ EV see above, Paulo will go btw in this one
R. Palhares by sub.: .15 units @ +210 The weigh ins convinced me. I feel bad for the legs of Miller!

Best of luck everybody! I'm excited!

[sag3000]

Wow, one judge actually gave it 30-27 to Loveland.. 1 unit down so far, but it's to be expected that at least one of the faves loose. This wasn't my biggest bet, so hopefully the others will come through

Man, Erick Silva is real Should have jumped on the tko bet!