Sports Threadagogy ! MMA

[SportsPedagogy]

I decided to make one long running thread since all the cool kids were doing it. Past 2 UFCs have been great 6-2 combined. Ill start this thread off with UFC 131.

ELKINS +250 I salivatated when i saw this price. Migawa has the experience but Elkins has the size and wrestling advantage. Most Japanese fighters are weak against wrestlers, its always seemed to be Migawas weakness. Migawa could pull out a submission. His last two wins were by submission, but i think Lay and Pray earns the Pay. Who cares if its not exciting, its money.

BELTRAN +135 What worries me the most about Rosa is his body. He recently was fighting light Heavyweight, now hes walking around 260ish ? Insane. I think Beltran will lose a round to the ground, but he has the wrestling to keep in standing and win on punches, who knows, maybe Rosa tires and Beltrans scores with hos own takedown.

STOUT -160 My lone fav. Edwards is on a 3 fight win streak, but he hasnt beaten anybody, he looked a li confused against the crazy Cody McKenzie until he caught him in a slick submission (Which i predicted to be sub of the night at +1200) Stout is a legit UFC fighter. He can be trouble for anybody in his division. His last two loses were split decisions. I think this one goes alot smoother. Stout by 30-27 DEC

EINEMO +165 This fight reminds me of Pat Barry Vs Frank Mir. If it happened, and went to the ground, Mir would remove a limb. PeeWee has hands of steel and is very powerful, but Einemo is 6'6" and one of the best Heavyweight grapplers in the world. I think he gets Sub of the night and will progress into a legit contender.

CARWIN +150 Carwin can generate so much power in such a lil space, i think we finally see Dos Santos take some legit shots. I think we will try and press Carwin against the cage and tire him out. Im counting on the good wrestling of Carwin to create space and bang. This fight can end at any second, i think it ends close to the end of the first in favor of Carwin. Hopefully Carwin doesnt gas, its amazing how you can live and train in Colorado, then gas out somewhere at a lower altitude.

Best of luck tomorrow !

[jesuseatsnubs]

excellent picks .. best of luck to u .. hope we both win big

[Vaughany]

EINEMO +165 This fight reminds me of Pat Barry Vs Frank Mir. If it happened, and went to the ground, Mir would remove a limb. PeeWee has hands of steel and is very powerful, but Einemo is 6'6" and one of the best Heavyweight grapplers in the world. I think he gets Sub of the night and will progress into a legit contender.
!

You'll never see Barry pulling off a omoplata like Herman did on Kita though! Einemo does have a good chance tho, considerable size advantage as well

[The HOFF]

BELTRAN +135 What worries me the most about Rosa is his body. He recently was fighting light Heavyweight, now hes walking around 260ish ? Insane. I think Beltran will lose a round to the ground, but he has the wrestling to keep in standing and win on punches, who knows, maybe Rosa tires and Beltrans scores with hos own takedown.

This one could be spot on. I saw Rosa at the weigh-in and said holy shit!

[SportsPedagogy]

You'll never see Barry pulling off a omoplata like Herman did on Kita though! Einemo does have a good chance tho, considerable size advantage as well

The green ranger won his first fight by oma plata. Lol therefore, that move is no longer the most embarrassing to get finishEd by. It's now ... The bicep cutter lol

[SportsPedagogy]

2-0 thus far, guaranteed profit and we havent even hit the half way point

[SportsPedagogy]

3-0, didnt go as i thought, but its another win

[SportsPedagogy]

Enimo +165 fails, close to getting the finish but Herman is a beast, Enimo has no business throwing wildly, hes got enough strength and size to mix in shots, cage presses and takedowns against the cage to either get a sub, or win on points

[SportsPedagogy]

3-2 +485 not to shabby. Was helped a bit by a controversial decision, I feel like an idiot for the Carwin pick, he got outclassed and lost alot of his contender status. BOL to you guys, Lets get ready for next time

[Vaughany]

Good job

[Hannibal]

You made a profit, but i don't know if you can count that as a success.
That's like someone hitting a running straight and thinking he made a good call.

I'm not dogging on your successful profits... but i hope your win doesn't give you unnecessary confidence in future events, rather it teaches you something valuable.

[Hannibal]

^ sorry if i came off as a pretentious douche bag
I do appreciate your analysis and picks!

[Go4theJugular]

lol it's better to be lucky than good...you really went 2-3...you should've taken Munoz and you would've gotten another gift from the judges

[SportsPedagogy]

My thoughts on the Elkins fight were dead wrong, i thought he would lay and pray and he decided to stand and bang. The first two rounds were close, he obviously lost the 3rd round. I thought he lost, but i can see how the judges gave him 29-28. I think the blood made people think it was alot more lopsided then it was. Also, Enimo was in a great position to win and just got rocked. Alot of fights can go either way, you just have to figure out which ones have value to them. Most japanese fighters struggle with wrestlers, and they always seem to be on the bad end of controversial calls, therefore +250 was great value. Im never over confident in any pick, but i do feel i have a strong feel for a fighters strength and weakness

[SportsPedagogy]

Its time for UFC Live 4 ! Looking up and down the card, i see a two matches that i like.

VAZQUEZ +170 For starters, 3 of the mans 4 losses were split decisions. Stevenson has a tendency to tire out during fights, im not so sure this cut to featherweight is going to help to much. I think somewhere between the late 2nd and early 3rd Stevenson will run out of Gas, Vazquez will either take his back and work for a rear naked or catch joe in a guillotine. I think Stevensons is beat mentally, and physically at this stage in his career. 3 straight loses will always keep a seed of doubt in your mind on wither or not you are still capable of fighting at a high level and once things start going sour in this match, the flood gates of doubt will open on Stevenson.

Story -110 I hope im wrong about this, but Story appears to be Nates cryptonite. Hes a strong wrestler with a strong chin. He may eat some shots, but i think Story is going to make this fight about as interesting as a Story about a bridge. Hes going to use the Chael sonnen blueprint in this one. Hes not as good as Sonnen, but he can press Nate against the cage and look for a takedown when the time is right.

Just looking down the card at the rest i would take
Kongo over Barry - Hope im wrong, but Kongo takes this 70% of the time
Howard over Brown - Brown has some strong hits, but thats about it
Mitrone over moorecraft - Anytime a guy has fun fighting like Mitrone does, he has a serious edge.
Griffin over Manny - Should be a decent fight, but i think Griffin is more well rounded and will keep it standing.
Lauzon over Warburton - I think Joe grabs a nice submission against a standup fighter
Lentz over olivera - I like Olivera, but hes going to need a crazy submission or a random knee to stop this lay and prey machine.
Lamas over Grice - pretty decent matchup, but Lamas has better standup so i give him the slight edge
Johnson over Faaloloto - I think this fight is a gimmie from the UFC. MMA is to flueky for the -550 tho

Fight of the Night : Howard Vs Brown - I think each guy will rock each other, the crowd will love it, eventually Howard will pound him out on the ground, get up and scream "Are you not entertained ? " This will be a fun fight to watch !

KO of the night: Meathead over Moorecraft. Its so hard to keep your guard up the whole match, especially as a heavyweight, unfortunatly for Moorecraft, he will have to, because Mitrione keeps coming and coming . Leg kicks in the 1st will break his spirit, once they are mixed with body shots and head shots, he will be in a world of pain, by the third, he should be demoralized and will be left open for a highlight real KO by mitrione.

Sub of the Night: Lauzon over Warburton. warburton is a few inches taller, but that can be a disadvantage on the ground. Longer limbs are harder to hide and i think Lauzon will walk away with an Arm when its all said and done.

Best of luck tonight gentleman.

[ufcmma36]

nice write up. Im thinking Moorecraft definitely has a chance too take him down and pound him out. May even turn out to be a pretty exciting fight! BTW. its on Sunday

[SportsPedagogy]

I think Matts time as a football player have helped his transitions into take downs and TDD. All the core strength that he has built and the motions from driving the sled, tackling drills and shedding blockers. The muscle memory he has built from that has helped him in the transition. Should be a good fight.

Also, i had no idea the fights were tomorrow, i just assumed it would be Saturday. thanks for the heads up.

[ufcmma36]

yea me too. I kept searching to tivo then realized its sunday... But yea definitely a great match up!

[spargament]

who HONESTLY thought during TUF that Mitrione would have anywhere near the level of success that he has.

[SportsPedagogy]

Definitely not me. He was a tough SOB on the show tho. Alot of the guys that go on the show are still pretty raw, then they find a great camp and start fluerishing. I think joining the Duke Roufus camp and training with Barry all the time has helped him alot.

[Ladle]

I think Matts time as a football player have helped his transitions into take downs and TDD. All the core strength that he has built and the motions from driving the sled, tackling drills and shedding blockers. The muscle memory he has built from that has helped him in the transition. Should be a good fight.

It hasn't helped his takedown defense. He dropped a round to Joey Beltran after being out-wrestled, was taken down by Kimbo, and was taken down repeatedly by a nearly dead Marcus Jones. Hopefully training under Tom Erikson has improved his wrestling, because otherwise, Morecraft could give him a lot of problems. I think we see an exciting fight either way.

[Hannibal]

His takedown defense hasn't looked great.. He doesn't know how to control his hips and weight as well as i would like to see.
What he does have is amazing speed, movement, footwork, and long straight punches. If he develops his fighting instinct, knowing when to move and where to move, most guys will have trouble closing the distance to get a hold of him.

[xelance]

I put 1 unit on morecraft/mitrione FOTN +600...good odds if you ask me considering their size, abilities, and "hatred" towards one another. I actually think this war goes the distance

[SportsPedagogy]

i actually didnt see the Beltran fight, i did see the Kimbo fight, i don remember the takedown, ill have to go watch it again.

[ufcmma36]

definitely thinking fotn!!! Im also putting a small play on the Punishment fighter. Morecraft can win this fight Im seeing a gnp finish!

[ufcmma36]

even a sub has value!!!! Morecraft can easily submit him...

[SportsPedagogy]

Im adding
Lauzon -285 - i think hes just going to outclass warbourton
Lentz +135 I think he will lay and prey, i hope im wrong, i wanna see Olivera do well in the UFC. hes fun to watch

And ...

Im sprinkling half a unit on BRENNEMAN +345 ... Story has used his wrestling to win vs Alves, i think Brenneman is a better wrestler then most of Storys opponents, i think it will turn into a standup fight and i think Brenneman has a chance of out boxing him. This is the complete opposite fight style that Story was training for. Its worth a shot. BOL guys

[SportsPedagogy]

Sub of the Night: Lauzon over Warburton. warburton is a few inches taller, but that can be a disadvantage on the ground. Longer limbs are harder to hide and i think Lauzon will walk away with an Arm when its all said and done.

I thought he was literally going to walk away with that arm ..

[spargament]

Definitely not me. He was a tough SOB on the show tho. Alot of the guys that go on the show are still pretty raw, then they find a great camp and start fluerishing. I think joining the Duke Roufus camp and training with Barry all the time has helped him alot.

In retrospect I also think postproduction editing did a good job of painting him as a lot less deliberate and cunning, and more aloof, immature and whatnot..I think he 'played the game', and he's seeing the benefits.

No doubt he's done some personal growing since then, and his work ethic/ training doesn't hurt; but I think everybody had the bar set so low to begin with, that breaking those expectations wasn't difficult for him.

[corcoran65]

good write up on the lauzon warburton fight. has a chance for sub of the night

[SportsPedagogy]

KO of the night: Meathead over Moorecraft. Its so hard to keep your guard up the whole match, especially as a heavyweight, unfortunatly for Moorecraft, he will have to, because Mitrione keeps coming and coming . Leg kicks in the 1st will break his spirit, once they are mixed with body shots and head shots, he will be in a world of pain, by the third, he should be demoralized and will be left open for a highlight real KO by mitrione.

Looking good for KO'of the night

[xelance]

good shit, you seem to really know your stuff. Hope it pulls through for you!

[SportsPedagogy]

good shit, you seem to really know your stuff. Hope it pulls through for you!

Thanks man, also, apparently, according to Matt Mitrione, he pisses you ...

[xelance]

Thanks man, also, apparently, according to Matt Mitrione, he pisses you ...

LOL that was good stuff, yeah as long as he doesnt piss on me, im cool

[SportsPedagogy]

Im sprinkling half a unit on BRENNEMAN +345 ... Story has used his wrestling to win vs Alves, i think Brenneman is a better wrestler then most of Storys opponents, i think it will turn into a standup fight and i think Brenneman has a chance of out boxing him. This is the complete opposite fight style that Story was training for. Its worth a shot. BOL guys

Damn, wish i had more confidence in it