My UFC 131 Parlay

**bjpenn85** · 06-06-11, 01:35 PM

Kenny florian
Dustion poirier
dave herman
chris weidman
JDS Carwin Not going the distance

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 01:35 PM

I took Herman over Einemo. Are you really willing to put a guy who hasen't fought since 2006 on your parlay? And check out who he has fought. His last win was James Thompson lol. Other than that, Diego Nunes is a bold prediction, but one I feel is possible as well.

**Wrecked** · 06-06-11, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by bjpenn85

Kenny florian
Dustion poirier
dave herman
chris weidman
JDS Carwin Not going the distance

What's your wager?

I personally don't have faith in Florian's weight class.
Not to mention Nunes fights with team blackhouse which is doing very well at the moment.

I think Einemo is going to power through Herman since Einemo was training to fight Carwin and has something to prove, and I don't like the way Herman looked in his last fight.

What are the odds on JDS and Carwin not going the distance? That play sounds a lot safer than mine D:

Originally posted by NickBaragona

I took Herman over Einemo. Are you really willing to put a guy who hasen't fought since 2006 on your parlay? And check out who he has fought. His last win was James Thompson lol. Other than that, Diego Nunes is a bold prediction, but one I feel is possible as well.

Eh, I like his team, he looks good in training (well while he wast training for Carwin). And I wouldn't put money on Herman right now, I feel like he's getting sloppy.

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 01:54 PM

Well thanks for telling me now. I have $55 riding on him on Saturday. Oh well lol.

**bjpenn85** · 06-06-11, 02:35 PM

they are not all on one slip. I have a florian and herman on a parlay. 0.33 unit to win .08u
poirier, weidman jds carwin not going the distance 2 unit to win 2 unit

I will most probably hedge the parlay with nunes decision. and maybe einemo sub. I dont like the way herman fight either. But the dude is norwegien, like i have posted before. They do all suck in sports. This is a talented guy from USA, its simply not likely that a talented guy from usa, with some impressive wins, get beaten by a norwegian guy that once was good in bjj and hasnt fought in four years. But, herman may be totally unfocused and not well trained, so a hedge should be in place.

**Al0n3'** · 06-06-11, 02:37 PM

i put some $$ on einemo too, cos he trains with overeem and has a good team... well see!

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 02:47 PM

How the hell is Einemo even in the UFC? I mean, you don't fight for almost 5 years, and then all of a sudden you are fighting on the main card of a UFC PPV? Lol its just strange they wouldnt make him have a tuneup fight in a small organization first. But you guys have officially made me nervous enough to place a side wager with Einemo by submission.

**Ladle** · 06-06-11, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by NickBaragona

How the hell is Einemo even in the UFC? I mean, you don't fight for almost 5 years, and then all of a sudden you are fighting on the main card of a UFC PPV? Lol its just strange they wouldnt make him have a tuneup fight in a small organization first. But you guys have officially made me nervous enough to place a side wager with Einemo by submission.

Because, on the ground, he's lightyears ahead of the vast majority of heavyweights out there (yes, he's better than Frank Mir). In that capacity, he represents an interesting challenge for pretty much anyone in the division.

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 02:56 PM

Wow, I didnt realize he was such a good grappler. I guess a side wager of Einemo by submission would definitely be appropriate.

**Ladle** · 06-06-11, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by NickBaragona

Wow, I didnt realize he was such a good grappler. I guess a side wager of Einemo by submission would definitely be appropriate.

Yup, can't argue with that.

**rocky mattioli** · 06-06-11, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

Because, on the ground, he's lightyears ahead of the vast majority of heavyweights out there (yes, he's better than Frank Mir). In that capacity, he represents an interesting challenge for pretty much anyone in the division.

well said...anybody with this caliber grappling ability at 6`5"/240 is gonna be a dangerous guy to get in the cage with.....

i watched a fight or two of his....he`s not bad on his feet.....is he dos santos/carwin good on his feet?...no....

but some of herman`s fights(at least the ones i watched)ended up on the floor......

balls to the wall,i`ll probably use herman in a par or two.....but i may hedge depending on the props available....

**cheeese** · 06-06-11, 04:36 PM

He's had a lot of time to get better at striking and he is likely still badass on the ground. If Herman does not have success on the feet he is pretty much dead. I worry about possible cardio issues with the layoff. Maybe Einemo in the 1st round is worth a look.

**jesuseatsnubs** · 06-06-11, 05:19 PM

this will be a good month .. 5 more days till UFC 131 !! we got strikeforce on the 18th .. and UFC on the 26th

**Kaladarus** · 06-06-11, 05:57 PM

Not a big fan of many of your picks, but you play can win. Good luck.

**RaiderNation MMA** · 06-06-11, 06:02 PM

highly unlikly that hits, lots of razor close fights

**Wrecked** · 06-06-11, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by RaiderNation MMA

highly unlikly that hits, lots of razor close fights

I know right?

These fights are all so close.

Regardless, it'll be a great event to watch Saturday, and I can't wait to place my first bet, and watch some great fights...

**bogbat** · 06-06-11, 07:39 PM

If I was to make a parlay for this event it would be

Shane Carwin +145
Yves Edwards +135
Damian Mia EV

Bet $100 to win $1,052

Probably won't hit but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

**RaiderNation MMA** · 06-06-11, 07:42 PM

its gonna be a fun card no doubt!!! if u hit that parlay id b happy for you, but goddam! youve got like 4 underdogs there!

**RaiderNation MMA** · 06-06-11, 07:42 PM

GL!

**Wrecked** · 06-06-11, 07:57 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

If I was to make a parlay for this event it would be

Shane Carwin +145
Yves Edwards +135
Damian Mia EV

Bet $100 to win $1,052

Probably won't hit but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.

I might switch onto Yves... I gotta do abit more research. I'll update picks on fight night for sure!
I think you should pull off Maia. Munoz isn't going to stay in his guard to long or get stuck in there. I personally don't think Maia's chin is tough enough to take the unrelenting strikes from Munoz.

Originally posted by RaiderNation MMA

its gonna be a fun card no doubt!!! if u hit that parlay id b happy for you, but goddam! youve got like 4 underdogs there!

Yeah it's going to be great. Thanks, I am hoping my underdogs pull through! The ones I'm the most worried about is Shane Carwin "2.0" haha, and I'm thinking about hopping off Stout.

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 08:05 PM

$5.00 to win $47.34 Pending 6 Team Parlay
Pending6/11/11 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1002 Junior Dos Santos -165* vs Shane Carwin
Pending6/11/11 9:00pm UFC Fighting 1202 Dave Herman -240* vs Jon Olav Einemo
Pending6/11/11 10:00pm UFC Fighting 1301 Mark Munoz -125* vs Demian Maia
Pending6/11/11 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1402 Donald Cerrone -390* vs Vagner Rocha
Pending6/11/11 6:00pm UFC Fighting 1902 Dustin Poirier -325* vs Jason Young
Pending6/11/11 6:00pm UFC Fighting 2102 Aaron Rosa -180* vs Joey Beltran

This is what I currently have pending. Obviously not a huge payout, but I like its chances of hitting.

**Wrecked** · 06-06-11, 08:26 PM

You're basically betting that there are going to be no upsets! It's unlikely the night will go without an upset.

**Ladle** · 06-06-11, 08:29 PM

Yeah, I'd be very surprised if at least one of them didn't lose. That said, I noticed on Nick's SBR page that he hit a $300 four team parlay of Jones, Kongo, Guida and dos Santos last year. The man has clearly had success with parlaying favourites.

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 08:43 PM

Yeah, I bet a little different than most. I don't go for value, I just bet on ones I think will win. Not saying either is the "correct" way to bet, it's just what I do. I have been successful on 9 of the last 10 events (including Bellator), I haven't posted much lately. My winning streak came to an end when Alves was upset by Story. I cleary understimated Rick Story.

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 08:49 PM

And i didnt bet on ALL the favorites. I left the kenny florian fight out, as well as Weidman, Soszynski, Nick Ring, all favorites. These are the fights I think an upset are unlikely to happen. Plus its a $5 bet. All for fun

**Wrecked** · 06-06-11, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by NickBaragona

And i didnt bet on ALL the favorites. I left the kenny florian fight out, as well as Weidman, Soszynski, Nick Ring, all favorites. These are the fights I think an upset are unlikely to happen. Plus its a $5 bet. All for fun

Oh I get it! Best of luck

**v1y** · 06-06-11, 09:05 PM

Originally posted by NickBaragona

Yeah, I bet a little different than most. I don't go for value, I just bet on ones I think will win. Not saying either is the "correct" way to bet, it's just what I do. I have been successful on 9 of the last 10 events (including Bellator), I haven't posted much lately. My winning streak came to an end when Alves was upset by Story. I cleary understimated Rick Story.

but, if you think someone is a lock, you think their chances of winning are >90%, and then by definition there is value in the line.

**NickBaragona** · 06-06-11, 09:26 PM

Well, you have a point, but I am sure there have been some bets where I didn't have the best line possible. My problem in the past is putting my bets in at the last minute.

**GoldRush7** · 06-06-11, 09:48 PM

im going to be on the same side as most of those, good luck to you

**bogbat** · 06-06-11, 11:24 PM

Originally posted by Wrecked

I might switch onto Yves... I gotta do abit more research. I'll update picks on fight night for sure! I think you should pull off Maia. Munoz isn't going to stay in his guard to long or get stuck in there. I personally don't think Maia's chin is tough enough to take the unrelenting strikes from Munoz. Yeah it's going to be great. Thanks, I am hoping my underdogs pull through! The ones I'm the most worried about is Shane Carwin "2.0" haha, and I'm thinking about hopping off Stout.

If Mia gets tagged I can see him get KO'd too but his striking has improved with every fight. Munoz has some glaring defensive holes in his striking so I think the match up on the feet may be closer than you think. Also, Munoz's chin isn't incredible, I think he's been dropped at least once in every one of his UFC fights.

Outside of Mia's fight with Anderson silva he has been able to get his opponents to the ground, he is also very good at pulling guard and sweeping his opponent. If he can get Munoz on his back I think it will be over quick.

I don't think Mia is a lock by any means but I think he really should be the favorite here.

**GunShard** · 06-07-11, 01:53 AM

I usually win 2 team favorite or 4 team favorite Parlays.

**kmdubya** · 06-07-11, 12:55 PM

Originally posted by bogbat

If Mia gets tagged I can see him get KO'd too but his striking has improved with every fight. Munoz has some glaring defensive holes in his striking so I think the match up on the feet may be closer than you think. Also, Munoz's chin isn't incredible, I think he's been dropped at least once in every one of his UFC fights.

Outside of Mia's fight with Anderson silva he has been able to get his opponents to the ground, he is also very good at pulling guild and sweeping his opponent. If he can get Munoz on his back I think it will be over quick.

I don't think Mia is a lock by any means but I think he really should be the favorite here.

Totally agree with this. Maia is great value as the underdog. Munoz striking is OK (Dolloway was just way overrated) but his strength is wrestling. And Maia already handled a way better wrestler in Sonnen.

Munoz has big holes in his defence is a lot of places, and I think Maia exploits him.

**Vaughany** · 06-07-11, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by kmdubya

Totally agree with this. Maia is great value as the underdog. Munoz striking is OK (Dolloway was just way overrated) but his strength is wrestling. And Maia already handled a way better wrestler in Sonnen.

Munoz has big holes in his defence is a lot of places, and I think Maia exploits him.

I'd be surprised if Maia manages to get Munoz down with a Sasae Tsurikomi Ashi move like he used on Sonnen. I thinking pull guard will be his best hope.

**Wrecked** · 06-07-11, 01:34 PM

I also like the speed of Munoz over Maia.

It's going to be a close fight. Any of these fights could make or break my parlay! This will be a very exciting event.

I'm not sure if I'm going to go with a 20$ or a 50$ wager on it yet.