Missed -130 opener, but like this to about -175. I think this plays out much like the Florian fight for Guida. I don't think he will be consistently successful with the tds. If he gets a couple, I dont think he keeps Pettis down long enough to win rounds. Roller and Bendo couldn't out grapple Pettis and he has the distinct stand up advantage that Guida will be forced to engage.
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Agree. I'm thinking of making this my biggest play of the night.Comment -
Love this play. Ill be on it as well.Comment -
Any reason to think the lines will get better than -155?Comment -
oh shit its -140 nowComment -
i don't understand this line. i don't see any advantages for guida--i do think it will be fun to watch guida get lit up thoughComment -
Pettis is def the play. What he did to ben henderson was a huge surprise to me. Fight is still gonna be a war though.Comment -
this is the weirdest line movement agreed. I dont understand why people seem to bet on him. It must be the notion that he has improved a lot, and his submission win over gomi. Its sweet that people dont really understand how good pettis is. Ill guess there always be people that dont understand risks, and are not able to evaluate. Yesterday a guy at this forum said that nogueira vs brendan shaub was a 50 50 fight.Comment -
this is odd matchmaking(unless the ufc is relatively sure that pettis can get it done...which to me,seems a little dicey)....
pettis is a hot commodity at the moment(coming off that highlight reel k.o. of henderson).....he`s the new,flashy aldo/jon jones.......
his win over henderson was very big(even though it was competitive, i had pettis ahead...pretty sure most did).......
but why guida?..he`s different than henderson...henderson has a modicum of stand-up..great kicks ...and a great sub game....but henderson will stand in there...
guida`s a one-trick pony...he`s a wrestler,but he`s one of the best wrestler`s in the ufc considering that he imposes his will in spite of his opponents knowing exactly what he`s gonna do going in........yeah,his striking`s improved,but if he stands with pettis for any length of time,he`ll get decapitated... his striking is better...but that`s not saying much...
he`s better than henderson at taking an opponent to the mat and keeping them there...henderson does quite a bit of good work from his guard....guida is a total top control guy......a better top control guy than most guys considering most of his fights end up in life and death grappling matches with guida hugging out many more wins than losses.......
so,imo,it basically boils down to whether or not guida can get pettis to the mat...and every mma fan knows this...
i`m guessing that the ufc will be verrry unhappy if guida upsets the applecart...he`s fairly popular,but he`s not the potential draw that a flashy pettis would be in a high profile championship headliner....pettis is the hot commodity...
i`m guessing the ufc thinks that pettis wins this...personally,i would have stuck him in with another,lesser striker to maybe get another potential highlight reel k.o. to sweeten the pot for a pettis championship fight(which should come next)....
i lean pettis here....the odds are very do-able....but i`m not quite as sure as the ufc seems to be...would be a real faux pas for the organization if pettis shits the bed....Last edited by rocky mattioli; 05-31-11, 08:00 AM.Comment -
Well Guida is a pretty popular fighter, Pettis has a lot to gain by taking his scalp. Flip side is that if Guida wins then all the better, Guida can stake his claim at the belt, and young Pettis easily can climb the ladder back to his current spot.
Great matchmaking imo. I don't know if the UFC really has a rooting interest in this fight, after all they have plenty of easier matches to offer Pettis, if a gimme is what they want.Last edited by Poppa Catfish; 05-31-11, 08:10 AM.Comment -
that`s what i was thinking....i guess we disagreee that a loss to guida diminshes pettis a good deal....and certainly nixes any hope he might have for a title fight in the near future....
i was thinking that the ufc basically had pettis penciled in as the opponent for the winner of maynard/edgar after sotiropoulos took the pipe......but,i guess it could be guillard is he beats roller......or florian...
i just read that guida was rated #8(at least in february)...that surprised me...but he has been aon a bit of a roll(subbing guys)...
we`ll see...although i do lean pettis,they certainly aren`t giving him a walkover....we agree on that...Comment -
Yeah, we are quite similar, but disagree on that one part. Also got to remember the angle of fighter losing shot at the title losing next time out, kind of like a trap game in football I suppose. Happened to Okami, happened to Marq, among many others.Comment -
When the ufc was building up huerta they gave him guida, same with florian. Now pettis. If you can't beat guida, you don't belong in the title conversation. Its a safe fight. You know a young fighter won't get damaged fighting guida, at worst he'll get a 15 minute hug.Comment -
Close fight.... tough to call. Guida tends to push the pace in his fights and the judges like to give him decisions. I feel that Pettis is the better fighter and will easily win on the feet. He has the height and reach advantage and he's also skilled enough with his BJJ that he'll avoid the sub here. I just hope he can avoid the takedowns to prevent Guida from winning in the judges eyes. My play is Pettis by decision at +185.Comment -
I do think the UFC loves Pettis, but as far as popular goes...there arent many fighters more popular than Guida. He always goes 100%, and its normally a bloddy mess either way. I actually like Guida in this fight, he is a gamer and should be able to secure multiple takedowns. Ill take the value in Guida in this one....Comment -
How much are you willing to bet on guida?Comment -
Im putting my normal 2 units on it.Comment -
Wonder what odds I could get for Guida by split decision?Comment -
For what it worth my final card looks like this:
Pettis -145 2.9u/2u
Guida by Dec +232 .5/1.2
Pettis in 3rd +1000 .1/1
Jorgensen -400 4/1
Edwards -185 (bdog) 1.85/1
Credeur/Herman o2.5 (5dimes) .7/1
Pettis/Jorgensen/Edwards/Credeur o2.5 plus Oniell/Cope o2.5 +1000 .1/1Last edited by terpkeg; 06-04-11, 04:04 PM.Comment
