I'll be honest, I have no idea, other than I'll always think of Guida as a guy that can't break through to the top level of LWs. Didn't give him a prayer versus Florian or Diego. If Pettis is worthy of the hype, he should at least win here. But I haven't seen much of Pettis to understand if he can avoid being hugged or smothered to death by the Carpenter. And you know Clay doesn't mind doing what it takes to win. Your thoughts?
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Pettis was able to stifle henderson's wrestling. I think Hendo is a far superior athlete to guida, and his wrestling and physical strength are at least on par. With regards to the grappling and wrestling, Pettis should be able to do the same to Guida.
Clay's new style of striking seems to be over the top feints, and ridiculous movement. It tricked gomi, but gomi was never the type of fighter that could pick off clean shots from the outside like pettis can. I doubt Pettis will be fooled by this type of standup. He is disciplined, measured, keeps great distancing, and his technique is solid. He can throw very straight punches, and hooks when he needs to, with solid timing. Overall, his movement is more fluid to me, plus his long limbs are perfect for his style of striking.
I'm have been very impressed with the guys from the roufus camp. They all have an excellent striking game, and are quite competent at keeping it there. Guys like Mitrione, koch, pettis, barry.... all very solid. Pettis is young and i've seen noticeable progress each fight.
Simply put... Pettis is on his way up. The tools and the resources are on his side...can he put it together? I dont know, but i certainly believe he's got more than Guida.
I'd take pettis at -155 now... but what direction do you think the lines will move? If there is strong opinion that it would get closer... i'll hold off for a bit.Comment -
Im confident in pettis too.Comment -
Guida has been looking better and better every fight. He's been doing well at Greg Jackson's. One thing we know for sure is that Guida will come out with the necessary game plan to win this fight. I think Pettis has a small edge in this fight, but if his line keeps moving I think I will be looking to make a small play on Guida. I do believe Guida's chances are slightly better than what the current lines are giving him credit for.Comment -
I think Pettis is too dangerous everywhere. A few years ago I may have favoured Guida on the basis that Pettis used to fight like he was trying to take the "Best Fighter with the Worst Takedown Defense" title from Donald Cerrone. However, the Roller and Henderson fights proved that he's been very successful in improving that aspect of his game.
I currently have money on Pettis at -140. Might hedge with Guida by decision to be on the safe side.Comment -
Im confident in Pettis but not confident in the judges! Guida could get a couple of takedowns and pressure Pettis against the cage enough to get a decision from the judges even if Pettis out-strikes him and gets up from the ground and/or puts Guida in tricky situations on the mat (which I expect him to do). With this in mind I think I'll stick with fight goes the distance.
I agree with Hannibal tho that Henderson is a better version of Guida. Difference is this is 3 rounds rather than the 5 that Pettis had against Henderson so increases the chances of a dodgy decision IMO. However, Pettis' wrestling defence is only gonna get better whilst he working with Askren. Also, due to Guida's wild style, Pettis could have considerable success with his unorthodox Capoeira like kicks...I wouldn't be surprised if Pettis landed a head-kick similar to what Sanchez landed on Guida.
If people are liking Guida I'd recommend waiting and taking him by decision, really don't see how he could finish Pettis. Pettis showed great submission defense against Roller and Henderson.Comment -
yes I am confidentComment -
I see him doing what Rampage did to Hamill last night (although probably in a more entertaining fashion) i.e keeping Guida in check with his superior striking and stuffing all the takedown attempts. If Bendo and Roller couldn't wrestlefuk him than Guida won't either imo.Comment -
Anthony Pettis has not fought in the cage since December.
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Over the past few years, I've noticed that young up and comers training with exceptionally high quality partners (contender quality) do NOT show any kind of decrease in performance even from extended layoffs. If anything, they usually come back with significant improvements.
But.... if you ask me to list specific examples my mind will pretty much draw a blank hahaha.Comment -
That's a great point Vaughany. Three rounds is scary as hell. Guys like Guida, or Sanchez can win judges with their aggression, movement, and wild striking even when ineffective.
I got crushed on Sanchez vs Kampmann... and it's left a bad taste in my mouth.Comment -
the judges love guida so Pettis will probably have to finish him remember one judge actually scored the Diego fight in favor of guida.Comment -
I think the line will get worse because of the henderson fight and pettis history beating other wrestlers. I take Pettis now. 1.65 is good enough for me.Comment -
Yep. Me too with that fight. Also, it reminds me of how much love Guida got in the Diego fight decision. I scored it a clear 30-26, since Diego was constantly inflicting damage. But because Guida got a few takedowns that did nothing, I believe there was 29-28s and maybe even a score in Clay's favor for a fight he got dominated in.
I gotta give Vaughany A LOT of credit for his opinion in the Diego-Kampmann fight pre-fight. He said Diego's wild brawling might sway judges Garcia style. And it did just yet. Hopefully Pettis doesn't get screwed.Comment -
Yup. Patricia Morse-Jarman scored it 29-28 in favour of Guida. Total lunacy.
I think Pettis to win out-right hedged with Guida by decision is the play to make here. Betting on the fight to go the distance probably won't let you down, but I wouldn't rule out a Pettis submission. He's got a very slick triangle, and there's always the possibility that he could smash Guida on the feet and finish him off with a sub. Kenny Florian and Roger Huerta both choked out Guida immediately after dropping him with strikes.Comment -
I agree about that hedge. Remember last year though when everyone was on Guida NOT inside distance or NOT to win by submission over Rafael Dos Anjos and that flukey ending happened? I bet that screwed people. But lightning won't strike twiceComment -
Cain didn't fight for 10 months before he put Brock Lesnar in the fetal position!Comment
