Strikeforce GP hedge, someone convince me otherwise

[v1y]

these are 5dimes lines.

Sergei Kharitonov is +950 to take the GP.

Kharitonov is either facing barnett or rogers in the semis, and then overeem/werdum/silva in the finals.

Assuming Barnett wins (which is pretty likely), I don't see Barnett being more than -200 against Kharitonov (in fact my prediction is that it'd be about -160 barnett if not closer).

Lets assume Overeem kills Werdum and kills Silva, and lets assume Barnett was -200 against Kharitonov. Overeem would have to be more than -425 for us to fully hedge our bet. Is this even likely considering the style matchup?

Here's the scenario:

You put 100 on kharitonov to win 950
If Barnett is -200, you put 250 on barnett to win 125 (25 profit)
If Kharitonov beats Barnett, you hedge another 550 or so on overeem at -425 to win 130 (30 profit)
If Kharitonov beats Barnett and Overeem, you'd still end up with profit.

So does anyone think my hypothetical lines are off on barnett/kharitonov and overeem/kharitonov which would make this a bad bet?

[jin2daj]

barnett is NOT a safe bet. i dont think he has the offensive wrestling to take advantage of his submissions.

against anyone with a wrestling background he would get smashed.

i think kharitonov is a safe bet. especially at +900

[v1y]

you did not address my question at all.

my potential hedge has nothing to do with predicting who will win, but rather predicting what the possible lines will be. if barnett loses to rogers, that's good for me, because kharitonov would actually be a favourite over rogers, and it would cost me very little to hedge the rogers/kharitonov bet.

[Ladle]

So does anyone think my hypothetical lines are off on barnett/kharitonov and overeem/kharitonov which would make this a bad bet?

Barnett would deserve to be worse than -200 against Kharitonov, and if he absolutely steamrolls Rogers, then he almost definitely will be worse than -200 (unless the bookies put out a dumb opening line). Kharitonov is a good fighter, but he's got absolutely nothing at all off of his back and he's not very durable either.

As for Overeem/Kharitonov, it wouldn't be overly surprising to see Alistair come out as a -500 favourite, particularly if he makes short work of Werdum (which is probable in my opinion). I don't see how Kharitonov poses a legitimate threat to Overeem in any area.

[v1y]

barnett was on top of yvel for two rounds and couldn't put him away. not so convinced he can do the same to kharitonov. further, kharitonov has way better takedown defense than yvel, and can definitely knock barnett out.

not convinced barnett would be -200 in that fight.

[omalley21]

I like bigfoot +500 essentially vs Overeem. If he beats Overeem, he's beating barnett.

[Ladle]

I like bigfoot +500 essentially vs Overeem. If he beats Overeem, he's beating barnett.

Agreed, though I wonder if there would be more value in betting on Silva to beat Overeem, then taking your return from that bet (assuming Silva wins) and putting it on Silva to beat Barnett.

barnett was on top of yvel for two rounds and couldn't put him away. not so convinced he can do the same to kharitonov. further, kharitonov has way better takedown defense than yvel, and can definitely knock barnett out.

Kharitonov is probably worse off of his back than Yvel is. Sure, he could potentially knock Barnett out, but so could any other hard-hitting heavyweight. Sergei's takedown defense isn't much to write home about and I suspect Barnett would bring him to the mat sooner rather than later.

[v1y]

Agreed, though I wonder if there would be more value in betting on Silva to beat Overeem, then taking your return from that bet (assuming Silva wins) and putting it on Silva to beat Barnett.



Kharitonov is probably worse off of his back than Yvel is. Sure, he could potentially knock Barnett out, but so could any other hard-hitting heavyweight. odds are that Barnett would get him down sooner rather than later.

but silva probably won't be +500 straight against overeem...

hmm.. maybe silva is the better line...

[Ladle]

but silva probably won't be +500 straight against overeem...

Yeah, he definitely won't be. Whether or not what I outlined would be profitable depends on the hypothetical Silva/Barnett line, as well as the Silva/Overeem line.

[omalley21]

Its basically parlaying Bigfoot +250 ( vs Reem) with Bigfoot -350 (vs Barnett) which would pay out at +350. Im obviously guessing here but I think its good value. Also Werdum could sub Overeem and Bigfoot gets an easier road to the finals.

Im pretty confident that either Overeem +135 or Bigfoot +500 are gonna win it.

Dana's picking Barnett to beat Werdum in the finals. i don't see Werdum beating Reem though.

[bogbat]

You obviously put a lot of thought into this but I don't that it is very easy to predict the lines. A lot will hinge on subsequent outings. I personally think its safe to say Barnett will handily beat Rogers. Rogers obviously has a punchers chance but he look terrible against Warpath and only beat him by a small margin his last time out.

[NunyaBidness]

If you think Kharnitov to win is +EV bet it.

If you think the other lines along the way are +EV bet them.

Planning out this convoluted hedging strategy is a lot of work for possibly no reward. Especially counting the possibility of it never being completed, or being won by an opponent who isn't even listed. There was at least 1 japanese tourny (possibly more) I can recall where "the Field" won after bringing in a late replacement.

[snake11eyes]

If you think Kharnitov to win is +EV bet it.

If you think the other lines along the way are +EV bet them.

Planning out this convoluted hedging strategy is a lot of work for possibly no reward. Especially counting the possibility of it never being completed, or being won by an opponent who isn't even listed. There was at least 1 japanese tourny (possibly more) I can recall where "the Field" won after bringing in a late replacement.

Exactly. Remember you need all these scenarios to make a $25 or $30 dollar profit. Not worth it.