Who is afraid of MMA parlays?

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • sideloaded
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-21-10
    • 7561

    #1
    Who is afraid of MMA parlays?
    Not the squarest books of all time. But sbrsportsbook sure is. LOL.
  • sirchadwick1
    SBR MVP
    • 06-02-10
    • 1375

    #2
    I'm not a huge fan of parlays... but I do play quite a few 2-man parlays (usually favorites) and have been quite successful lately.
    Love GSP + Aldo coming up.
    Comment
    • teaserpleaser
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 08-14-08
      • 26015

      #3
      yeah when mma odds are over -200 i parlay i've done very well with them and play them often last time i lost a mma two teamer was when we found out bobby lashley really isnt a fighter and quit for the most part vs griggs i think. If 5dimes cuts mma parlays im in trouble.
      Comment
      • teaserpleaser
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 08-14-08
        • 26015

        #4
        yeah sbr sportsbook should let us parlay one day they will snap out of it i think.
        Comment
        • jin2daj
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 11-01-09
          • 816

          #5
          i only parlay for fun. i think statisically its just bad money manageent. same EV with higher variance.


          but theyre really fun to play.
          Comment
          • teaserpleaser
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 08-14-08
            • 26015

            #6
            They reduce risk im not laying -440 or whatever gsp is vs another world class fighter when i can reduce my risk. Its not hard to put together a well thought out 2 teamer when books like 5dimes give you odds on 2 or 3 sometimes more events. Nothing about betting is fun for me but the end result of cashing out... I enjoy it but i dont do this for action or recreation its to make money.
            Comment
            • sirchadwick1
              SBR MVP
              • 06-02-10
              • 1375

              #7
              Just laid down a parlay on Pitbull and Warren. Pays out about .6u for every 1u... but I'm confident in them both.
              Comment
              • Educ8d Degener8
                SBR MVP
                • 01-12-10
                • 3177

                #8
                Waiting for closure of:
                Tim Kennedy (-325) over Manhoef
                Jose Aldo (-360)
                GSP (-460)

                Payout is 1:1

                Liked the play when I booked it (and still do), but Kennedy fight to UFC 129 was damn near 2 months, so just put 1.00u on it. It was my 3 favorite (albeit, square) plays on the board at the time of the Henderson-Feijao event.
                Comment
                • thesox0311
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 01-23-10
                  • 365

                  #9
                  ive asked bet diamond about it, and the answer was just NO we dont offer that. sucks.
                  Comment
                  • Pratik
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 09-08-10
                    • 89

                    #10
                    If I had extra cash lying around i would parlay GSP, Aldo and Overeem. I wish Overeem fight was sooner.
                    Comment
                    • Educ8d Degener8
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-12-10
                      • 3177

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Pratik
                      If I had extra cash lying around i would parlay GSP, Aldo and Overeem. I wish Overeem fight was sooner.
                      Haha... I was contemplating parlaying Kennedy with the Reem, but would've tied up cash for like 4 months...
                      Comment
                      • terpkeg
                        SBR MVP
                        • 10-26-09
                        • 2364

                        #12
                        Originally posted by teaserpleaser
                        They reduce risk im not laying -440 or whatever gsp is vs another world class fighter when i can reduce my risk. Its not hard to put together a well thought out 2 teamer when books like 5dimes give you odds on 2 or 3 sometimes more events. Nothing about betting is fun for me but the end result of cashing out... I enjoy it but i dont do this for action or recreation its to make money.
                        Don't follow how this is profitable.

                        So if you have two -440 faves, and you normally bet to win 1 unit ($100). You don't want to lay -440. However, you dont need to lay -440 because you need two fights to come in to win 1 unit.

                        So play both Straight: Fight A risk 220 to win 50 and Fight B risk 220 win 50

                        You are taking action on two fighters given over an 80% chance to win the fight. You shouldnt be losing both of these fights. I am certain that mathematically it favors you to play these as straight wagers unless each outcome is somehow correlated, which isnt likely.

                        I am not trying to be a smart ass here as it took me quite a while to ween off the 2 and 3 fight parlays. But imo, if the odds are not favorable enough to play straight, then you are probably betting an overvalued line and it wont work in the long run. If there is value in the line, play it straight.

                        I still find myself putting in one small 5-7 fight parlay per UFC event for action purposes. Also stupid for the bankroll. 0-9 this year. I have had two events miss by one fight and one of them was Kampman by decision to close it out. But i get what I deserve.
                        Comment
                        • sideloaded
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 08-21-10
                          • 7561

                          #13
                          why is sbr sportsbook so afraid of -ev plays?
                          Comment
                          • Ladle
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-21-11
                            • 835

                            #14
                            If you believe that the chances of two fighters winning are very, very strong (and the odds reflect that) then it can often be worth parlaying them. I've done that four times this year, and have been successful on all accounts: I parlayed Charlie Brenneman and Yves Edwards in January; I parlayed Herschel Walker and Roger Gracie in January; I parlayed Chad Mendes and Mike Pierce in February; I parlayed Justin Wilcox and Eddie Alvarez earlier this month. All paid better than even money.

                            Generally speaking, I think too much variance comes into play with anything exceeding a two fight parlay. There can be exceptions though.
                            Comment
                            • rocky mattioli
                              SBR MVP
                              • 08-26-10
                              • 1263

                              #15
                              makes total sense if you`re averse to laying large odds(as i am)....all it takes is one -440 loser and you`re digging out for a good while...


                              we all play our own way...whatever works......you play your way,i`ll play mine......
                              Comment
                              • GunShard
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 03-05-10
                                • 10031

                                #16
                                Two team parlays are profitable.
                                Comment
                                • ufcmma36
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 02-22-10
                                  • 1065

                                  #17
                                  everyone hate 4-5 even 6 team parlays.... My thing is 2 "teams" from each sport. especially when UFC is in town. I take two fighters (usually undercard fights) and add em to a nice parlay with NBA, NHL,MLB. I have hit numerous parlays this way... Lakers, Spurs, GSP, Aldo, and if you feel lucky throw another on the Kings... lol Just saying I love the multi sport parlays!
                                  Comment
                                  • teaserpleaser
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 08-14-08
                                    • 26015

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by rocky mattioli
                                    makes total sense if you`re averse to laying large odds(as i am)....all it takes is one -440 loser and you`re digging out for a good while...


                                    we all play our own way...whatever works......you play your way,i`ll play mine......
                                    Comment
                                    • teaserpleaser
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 08-14-08
                                      • 26015

                                      #19
                                      Terpkeg - pm sent
                                      Comment
                                      • teaserpleaser
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 08-14-08
                                        • 26015

                                        #20
                                        By the way 5-6 team parlays in any sport = bad 2 or 3 team well thought out chalk parlays are profitable TRUST ME.
                                        Comment
                                        • terpkeg
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-26-09
                                          • 2364

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by teaserpleaser
                                          Terpkeg - pm sent
                                          Didnt get it.

                                          I dont doubt that you are very profitable w/ 2 and 3 fight parlays. Id have to go through my numbers the past few years (which is too cumbersome because my old records before I took an afternoon to figure out excel are a mess), but im almost certain I am + on my MMA parlays the past 5 years. My only point is the math seems to dictate that it would be more profitable in the long haul to play the same wagers in your parlay for straight wagers.

                                          However, as people reinterated above, whatever works for you. If losing a -440 wager sends you on tilt, and losing a parlay at -130 doesnt, then do what works for you. Winning at sports betting is so much more than picking winners and eveyone needs to find what is profitable for them. Im constantly trying to control my beast (gambling addiction) and make this thing work. Still comfident I will be able to do it (maybe delusional). But still have my slip ups. One of them is my current action parlays I am throwing out.

                                          One thing that I will say about my cross event parlays over the years: I think it cost me profit (as opposed to straight wagers) because I find myself scalping back the last leg at times. Ill have the last leg of a four teamer that I snagged at -330. Its not -420/+360 and I feel more comfortable hedging off a bit. Well the parlay closes and I cost myself profit where as I would have ben happy to let the -330 ride on a striaght wager seeing the value I got in the line.
                                          Comment
                                          • teaserpleaser
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 08-14-08
                                            • 26015

                                            #22
                                            Terpkeg nevermind nevermind pm not sent.
                                            To each his own i was going to send you my bellator , ufc 129, strikforce and nhl series parlay plays i already have booked and how im making my profit but i just spent 8 hours with a car dealership going back and forth over over payment and how far off we could get from sticker price... im beat i really am that and a combination of not wanting to explain in detail for some troll to come and start shit. I posted my opinions on at least 15-20+ fights in here diego+ to why reinhardt and Lee Higgins were Bad picks to dyah davis +500 without Ego how many times have you seen me be dead wrong on mma/boxing? I was wrong on johnson hardy being a close fight but that was a no play from jumpstreet dont know why you would doubt my style being profitable. PM if you want to the plays or have questions i probably wont be back in this thread. Ps i hate car salesmen i havent had a drink in 14 months and feel hung over from that grind last night unreal how hard these bloodsuckers fight you when they are still going to make a profit.
                                            Comment
                                            • Jordan23
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 04-26-10
                                              • 1227

                                              #23
                                              Parlays are always pretty fun. I like them
                                              Comment
                                              • Ladle
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 03-21-11
                                                • 835

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by teaserpleaser
                                                Terpkeg nevermind nevermind pm not sent.
                                                To each his own i was going to send you my bellator , ufc 129, strikforce and nhl series parlay plays i already have booked and how im making my profit but i just spent 8 hours with a car dealership going back and forth over over payment and how far off we could get from sticker price... im beat i really am that and a combination of not wanting to explain in detail for some troll to come and start shit. I posted my opinions on at least 15-20+ fights in here diego+ to why reinhardt and Lee Higgins were Bad picks to dyah davis +500 without Ego how many times have you seen me be dead wrong on mma/boxing? I was wrong on johnson hardy being a close fight but that was a no play from jumpstreet dont know why you would doubt my style being profitable. PM if you want to the plays or have questions i probably wont be back in this thread. Ps i hate car salesmen i havent had a drink in 14 months and feel hung over from that grind last night unreal how hard these bloodsuckers fight you when they are still going to make a profit.
                                                It would help your case to post these parlays on the forum before the event. Then, if you win consistently, there's definitive proof that your style of betting is successful.
                                                Comment
                                                • freelee
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 02-02-10
                                                  • 751

                                                  #25
                                                  none of the fights are going on at the same time so it's still possible to parlay them you just have do it yourself right before the fight starts
                                                  Comment
                                                  • xelance
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-25-10
                                                    • 1750

                                                    #26
                                                    hit 4 fight parlays in the last two UFC events..pretty nice payout. I hope to continue that success
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Kaladarus
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 11-11-09
                                                      • 1876

                                                      #27
                                                      Pro tip

                                                      If you're afraid of a MMA parlay it's a bad play.
                                                      Comment
                                                      SBR Contests
                                                      Collapse
                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                      Collapse
                                                      Working...