Iced's MMA Plays

[Iced]

MMA is one of my favorite sports and also one of my most profitable. I'm going to be keeping a thread here to track my plays throughout the year and hopefully share some consistent winners with you guys. I strictly bet on the money line, so I don't do any props or exotics. I bet on all MMA organizations as well, not just the UFC.

Good luck everyone.

[Iced]

Saturday, April 9, 2011

Bellator Fighting Championships 40

Michael Chandler (-115)
[Risk 5.75 units to win 5.00 units]

Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley

Tatsuya Kawajiri (+250)
[Risk 2.3 units to win 5.75 units]

That will be all for tonight, best of luck to everyone on their plays.

[Iced]

Saturday, April 9, 2011 --- Recap
Michael Chandler (-115) [Risk 5.75 units to win 5.00 units] ----- WIN (+5 units)
Tatsuya Kawajiri (+250) [Risk 2.3 units to win 5.75 units] ----- LOSS (-2.3 units)

Pretty good night. It was nice to see Chandler win early in the night so I wouldn't have to worry about the Kawajiri fight. Woodard just couldn't handle Chandler's wrestling, though Woodard did give Chandler a little scare in the second round. Kawajiri got destroyed by Melendez though, it wasn't even close. It was a fun night of fights, and I'll gladly take a decent sized profit to go along with it.

2011 average bet MMA line: +168

2011 MMA Record: 1-1 (+2.7 units)

[The HOFF]

Nice way to start off. Is there a reason you don't bet props at all? There are a lot of bad ones, but a few gems to be found. I usually just bet moneylines but occasionally find some props I really like. Vaughany always finds nice props.

[Iced]

Thanks Hoff. I have paper bet on props in the past just to see how I would do, but I have never been too successful at it. I'm not really sure why that is, but I'm just much better at money lines. I don't do parlays either. And yeah, I took a look at Vaughany's thread, there's some pretty good stuff in there. I'm sure some people can find value in props but I've never been able to do so, so I'll stick with money lines until I can perhaps learn some better angles to look at props.

[Iced]

Saturday, April 30, 2011

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields

---
Mark Bocek (+120)
[Risk 19 units to win 22.8 units]
---
Ivan Menjivar (-175)
[Risk 21 units to win 12 units]
---
Ryan Jensen (-115)
[Risk 6.9 units to win 6 units]
--
Rory MacDonald (-115)
[Risk 6.9 units to win 6 units]
---
Sean Pierson (+175)
[Risk 4 units to win 7 units]
---
John Makdessi (-175)
[Risk 5.25 units to win 3 units]
---
Claude Patrick (-130)
[Risk 3.9 units to win 3 units]
---

I wait until the day of events to finalize my bets, so all the lines I post everyone should be able to get. Good luck tonight everyone, looks like a great night of fights.

===

Bellator Fighting Championships 40: 1-0 (+5 units)
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley: 0-1 (-2.3 units)

2011 MMA Record: 1-1 (+2.7 units)

[terpkeg]

Like Bocek a lot, huh? I have a larger than average wager on Bocek at +125 which I made some months bck with the idea that I would scalp off some or all of it which I had the oppurtunity to do at -105 yesterday but didnt pull the trigger. Now Bendo is getting steamed.

I just feel like Bendo puts himself in so many poor spots that Bocek will be able to control a large portion of this fight. And, as for Hendersen being "unsubmitable," I dont think that is the case. Although I do also lean on distance at -130.

What are your thoughts on this fight?

[Iced]

I have the same feelings. It seems like a lot of people on this forum are passing on this fight and instead just prop betting the fight to go the distance. Decision is a definite likelihood, but I think Bocek could submit Henderson as well. Henderson is getting hyped up to the max, and that's why I think he is a public favorite in this fight --- his fights (Cerrone, Pettis, Varner, etc) have all been pretty interesting. Mark Bocek is the mirror opposite though, he's a relatively boring fighter to most, which makes him one of the most underrated lightweights in the UFC in my opinion.

Bocek is a Toronto native and that should add some motivation in this fight. Standing up, Henderson has a pretty clear advantage. I don't anticipate the fight staying up though. Bocek's grappling and BJJ should be able to at least neutralize Henderson on the ground for the majority of the fight. I don't anticipate Bocek submitting Smooth, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bocek wins in the first round via RNC. "Smooth" is the exciting new-comer to the UFC who the public obviously loves, Bocek is the boring ground fighter who has won four of his last five in the UFC but the public hates him. I think the true line for this fight should be somewhere around Bocek -150, so +120 is great value.

[spargament]

Bocek by submission +EV anyone?

[Iced]

Bocek by submission +EV anyone?

That bet (+385 at 5dimes right now) is definitely +EV. Bocek is confident that he will submit Henderson and I think he can as well. I don't think he will, but he definitely has better chance than the odds let on. "Bendo" has gotten his nickname from getting out of arm locks. Bocek will try to submit him via choke, most likely RNC, and his Henderson's bendiness will be put to a test in that position. Personally, I won't be making the bet because I don't bet on props, but it's certainly not a bad bet if you decide to pull the trigger.

[Iced]

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields ----- RECAP: 4-3 (-5.9 units)
Mark Bocek (+120) [Risk 19 units to win 22.8 units] ----- LOSS (-19 units)
Ivan Menjivar (-175) [Risk 21 units to win 12 units] ----- WIN (+12 units)
Ryan Jensen (-115) [Risk 6.9 units to win 6 units] ----- LOSS (-6.9 units)
Rory MacDonald (-115) [Risk 6.9 units to win 6 units] ----- WIN (+6 units)
Sean Pierson (+175) [Risk 4 units to win 7 units] ----- LOSS (-4 units)
John Makdessi (-175) [Risk 5.25 units to win 3 units] ----- WIN (+3 units)
Claude Patrick (-130) [Risk 3.9 units to win 3 units] ----- WIN (+3 units)

I personally hedged before the Bocek fight because I was already up over $1300 by that point. So I personally finished the night up about 10 units ($1000 for me) but I didn't post my hedge on here so I obviously won't count that.

There's a lot of organizations other than the UFC who have fights in the month of May, so I'll probably be making plays on them.

===

Bellator Fighting Championships 40: 1-0 (+5 units)
Strikeforce - Diaz vs. Daley: 0-1 (-2.3 units)
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs. Shields: 4-3 (-5.9 units)

2011 MMA Record: 5-4 (-3.2 units)