0-3 on all my MMA bets. I'm giving away the money I made in NBA and NCAA. It started with Martin Kampmann losing a very controversial fight against Sanchez. So I chase with Feijao, who dropped Henderson but couldn't finish. Then I chase with Shogun who get annihilated. Now I'm think of chasing with Rogerio. I'm a big MMA fan and have been watching for many years now but **** me, I'm cursed im MMA.
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Chasing with Rogerio would only compound your misery I'm afraid!Comment -
I make money on mma and lose on nba. Just tail Vaughany.Comment -
Were my bets unlucky or were they just the wrong plays? To me Kampmann had about 60-70% chance of winning the fight. And the other fights were 50/50 but I was getting + money so I took the value. I hate how you have to lay big juice to get an easy winner. I just want to win one solid play and I'm done with MMA.Comment -
IMO Kampmann was the wrong play, but not because Sanchez is the better fighter but only because of how Kampmann and Sanchez styles matched up and because of how judges score a fight. So although I'd agree that in terms of ability Kampmann probly would have a 60% chance of winning, this percentage has to be reduced when you take in to account the fact that the fight was probably going to go to decision more than 80% of the time as both lack KO power and both tough to finish. You then have to think who has the better chance of winning a decision? WHo is going to apply the pressure and show "octagon control"? Who is gonna look for takedowns and probably eventually get one which will score points? Sanchez was always going to be the busier fighter and the one who applied the pressure therefore he was always going to be the favourite to take a decision in my eyes. The awareness and considerations of these different types of variables in MMA only become more clear after u've been betting on MMA for a while and been through situations like these, and u'll start to have a better feeling of when a play might not be as a good value as it seems.
With regards to one solid play, look out for the odds coming out this week for next UFC event, I plan do go pretty big on Semerzier and Morecraft should the odds be favourable.Comment -
Yeah good points about the Sanchez fight. I knew Kampmann was going to be able to stuff most of his shots but the two Sanchez sneaked in won him the fight. Even though I feel it was bs decision because Kampmann did more damage, although I'm obviously biased. The more I think about it, I'm probably not going to chase with Rogerio because with how judges score take downs, he is going to have to get a knockout or submission to win. I'll look for plays, I'm thinking undercard fights might be a bit easier to handicap anyways.Comment -
I think the kampmann was the wrong play even though he was the better fighter, i did it myself. The fights that goes to decision, and has the potential to be even fights do i have as a rule to try to keep away from. off course, it is very easy to say this hindsight.
My rule is, dont bet against people with good wrestling or KO power, unless you know that the other is significantly better or is able to stay away from those areas. I also betted feija, but i did no bet a lot only parlayed him, knowing that he it was a 5050 ending op losing.
For me that pick was a category B fight, which means i parlayed him with another fight to get odds round 500plus. A category A fight is a fight were i mean the guy i bet on is good enough on the ground and standing, and that the fighter will be were he is best during the fight.
So my suggestion to you, next time you look over the next ufc event, try to spot the fighter you think is the weakest, so that you may find the fight that has the biggest gap in overall skillset. An example of this is was ufc 126 with gabe reudiger against paul taylor, or kenny robertson against mike pierce. I often just pick 2 fight, with the combined odds in 2-2.5 range (pluss 100 - pluss 150) and bet a couple of units. For me, this works almost every single ufc event, i lose and win some on under dogs or pro, but the safe bets almost always wins. Like shaub, and marquart that was my parlay for yesterdays evening.
If you cant find that types of fight, you might wanne think betting on bellator or a minor league mma promotion were the skillset gap is much bigger. UFC fighters these days are so even, it is sometimes smart to just dont bet. sometimes 1.30 fights is as even as 1.90 fight in a minor league promotion, no point betting then.Comment -
dude phil davis is going to win dont doo it!!!Comment -
Thanks for the support boys. Wow am I glad I didn't bet on Nog although he could still win. I went big on Mike Russow and basically got back all of my losses.
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Dam I can't get the Homer Simpson pic to work, but I love Mike RussowComment
