Kiefynugs' MMA Picks

[kiefynugs]

Just a tard postin my nickel and dime picks to keep record.

Strikeforce Challengers 14:
David Douglas 3.1u -310
Lee Higgins 1u +300
Pat Healy 1u +160
Total of +1.6u

UFC 127 so far:
Jon Fitch -175 3u to win 1.71u

[kiefynugs]

UFC 127:
Nick Ring 1u @ -100 to win 1u
Maciej Jewtuszko 1u @ -145 to win 1.24u


cant believe nick ring turned to +105 right after I placed the bet. Must be in the minority thinking Fukuda's wrestling isn't that great

[illmatick]

solid plays.

Sorta/kinda agree with you on the Ring fight. I played Fukuda anticipating a buy-back. Line probably isn't going to move as much as I hoped.

Pinnacle indicating some sharp money on Maciej Jewtuszko last night.

[kiefynugs]

Well I promised myself I was going to hold off on 127 but after a couple beers last night

More UFC 127 plays:

Fitch by decision 6.7u @ -134 to win 5u
Reinhardt 1u @ +200 to win 2u
Blackledge 2u @ -180 to win 1.11u

kind of ashamed that I bet drunk but I'm 90% sure on fitch and 70% on Blackledge.

The reinhardt bet is just feeling that this is the UFCs desperate attempt to keep Zhang around when he doesn't really cut the mustard... But its a real shot in the dark as I don't know Reinhardt from jack. Gotta lay off the sauce for 128

[kiefynugs]

solid plays.

Sorta/kinda agree with you on the Ring fight. I played Fukuda anticipating a buy-back. Line probably isn't going to move as much as I hoped.

Pinnacle indicating some sharp money on Maciej Jewtuszko last night.

Thx Ill. Maciej is a bet I studied hard and am confident on. Warburton is sloppy bringing his hands back after throwing and Maciej is a great striker with many unorthodox strikes, and has a good chin. He's also 6' tall with a 74" reach which I love at LW. Especially with decent BJJ against someone not known for wrestling and coming out of Wolfslair. He can win this fight in more ways I think.

He has been rocked before and Warburton is a tough striker too though...

[jin2daj]

Well I promised myself I was going to hold off on 127 but after a couple beers last night

More UFC 127 plays:

Fitch by decision 6.7u @ -134 to win 5u
Reinhardt 1u @ +200 to win 2u
Blackledge 2u @ -180 to win 1.11u


The reinhardt bet is just feeling that this is the UFCs desperate attempt to keep Zhang around when he doesn't really cut the mustard... But its a real shot in the dark as I don't know Reinhardt from jack. Gotta lay off the sauce for 128

i agree that reinhardt is put in there to give zhang a win, but thats exactly the point. the UFC knows what their doing and they're giving zhang a fight hes going to win. YES he's being set up, but that shouldnt change any outcomes.

[kiefynugs]

i agree that reinhardt is put in there to give zhang a win, but thats exactly the point. the UFC knows what their doing and they're giving zhang a fight hes going to win. YES he's being set up, but that shouldnt change any outcomes.

haha well I was the first to admit its not my greatest bet, but I wouldn't count reinhardt out because zhang is a real piece of crap too

[kiefynugs]

Alright this is a little experiment that I've never done before and will probably never do again

More UFC 127 Plays:
Rivera KO of the Night 1u @ +1350 to win 13.5u
Siver KO of the Night 1u @ +1750 to win 17.5u
Penn Sub of the Night 1u @ +1200 to win 12u
GSot Sub of the Night 1u @ +555 to win 5.55u
Zhang quickest sub 1u @ +725 to win 7.25u
Blackledge quickest TKO/KO 1u @ +775 to win 7.75u
Jewtuszko quickest TKO/KO 1u @ +1400 to win 14u

Also a parlay with Fitch by sub and Gustafsson/Machida .5u @ to win 10.44u

[kiefynugs]

UFC 127
Fitch 3u @ -175 to win 1.71u
Fitch by decision 6.7u @ -134 to win 5u
Nick Ring 1u @ -100 to win 1u
Maciej Jewtuszko 1u @ -145 to win 1.24u
Reinhardt 1u @ +200 to win 2u
Blackledge 2u @ -180 to win 1.11u
Rivera KO of the Night 1u @ +1350 to win 13.5u
Siver KO of the Night 1u @ +1750 to win 17.5u
Penn Sub of the Night 1u @ +1200 to win 12u
GSot Sub of the Night 1u @ +555 to win 5.55u
Zhang quickest sub 1u @ +725 to win 7.25u
Blackledge quickest TKO/KO 1u @ +775 to win 7.75u
Jewtuszko quickest TKO/KO 1u @ +1400 to win 14u

[xelance]

tailed you on jewtuzko, best of luck!

[kiefynugs]

UFC 127
Fitch 3u @ -175 to win 1.71u
Fitch by decision 6.7u @ -134 to win 5u
Nick Ring 1u @ -100 to win 1u
Maciej Jewtuszko 1.8u @ -145 to win 1.24u
Reinhardt 1u @ +200 to win 2u
Blackledge 2u @ -180 to win 1.11u
Rivera KO of the Night 1u @ +1350 to win 13.5u
Siver KO of the Night 1u @ +1750 to win 17.5u
Penn Sub of the Night 1u @ +1200 to win 12u
GSot Sub of the Night 1u @ +555 to win 5.55u
Zhang quickest sub 1u @ +725 to win 7.25u
Blackledge quickest TKO/KO 1u @ +775 to win 7.75u
Jewtuszko quickest TKO/KO 1u @ +1400 to win 14u

Total risk:21.7u
Return: 13.25u
Profit: -8.45u
Total net gain: -6.85

Yikes. The draw hurts everyone so that sucks, but I was really surprised to see Siver unable to secure that KO after neutralizing the TD so well. Some close calls on big money plays that would've put me over.

Next time I'm going to clean up my bets a little.


PS: F**k you Bisping.

[kiefynugs]

Alright time to save my skin and creep back to evens here.

UFC on Versus 3 Plays:
Mark Munoz 1.85u @ -185 to win 1u
Martin Kampmann 3.1u @ -155 to win 2u
Thiago Tavares 3.3u @ -110 to win 3u
Rousimar Palhares 3.3u @ -165 to win 2u
Steve Cantwell 2.5u @ -125 to win 2u
Danny Castillo 1u @ -100 to win 1u

Parlays:
Weidman/Bowles/Tavares 2u to win 5.62u
Sanchez/Weidman 2u to win 4.38u

[kiefynugs]

Alright time to save my skin and creep back to evens here.

UFC on Versus 3 Plays:
Mark Munoz 1.85u @ -185 to win 1u
Martin Kampmann 3.1u @ -155 to win 2u
Thiago Tavares 3.3u @ -110 to win 3u
Rousimar Palhares 3.3u @ -165 to win 2u
Steve Cantwell 2.5u @ -125 to win 2u
Danny Castillo 1u @ -100 to win 1u

Parlays:
Weidman/Bowles/Tavares 2u to win 5.62u
Sanchez/Weidman 2u to win 4.38u

Also had a late square parlay here:
Bowles/Mizugaki/Yang/Pokrajac 1u to win 2.95u
Risk: 20.05u Gain: 20.48u Profit: +0.43u
YTD: -6.42u

Really creeping back here.

[bogbat]

You make too many different wagers. Surely you didn't feel strongly for all of them?

Or do you just enjoy having a little action on most of the fights to make it more interesting?

[kiefynugs]

You make too many different wagers. Surely you didn't feel strongly for all of them?

Or do you just enjoy having a little action on most of the fights to make it more interesting?

I feel both ways... the latter moreso when I get a few beers in me.

I'm not betting big money yet though so no worries. I started because I had a great pick record but the last couple events its gone to shit . Just trying to sharpen my betting skills a little.

[GoGoGadget]

If your going to keep a thread to post your picks and track you shouldn't grade picks that weren't posted before the event. GL on future bets

[kiefynugs]

If your going to keep a thread to post your picks and track you shouldn't grade picks that weren't posted before the event. GL on future bets

[kiefynugs]

Strikeforce Columbus plays:
Cavalcante 5u @ +175 to win 8.75u
Manhoef .5u @ +240 to win 1.2u
Masvidal 2.6u @ -130 to win 2u

BFC 35 Plays:
Lozano 1.5u @ +115 to win 1.73u
Wallhead 1.5u @ +125 to win 1.88u

[kiefynugs]

Strikeforce Columbus plays:
Cavalcante 5u @ +175 to win 8.75u
Manhoef .5u @ +240 to win 1.2u
Masvidal 2.6u @ -130 to win 2u

BFC 35 Plays:
Lozano 1.5u @ +115 to win 1.73u
Wallhead 1.5u @ +125 to win 1.88u

-6.42u + -5.9u = -12.32u
utter failure of a run so far

[kiefynugs]

UFC 128 Plays

Shogun 5u @ +170 to win 8.5u
This one is messing with me big time. I've spouted plenty of opinions about why I think shogun will win that you can find in other threads but basically I think jones is going to get knocked out early or badly beat up.

Jim Miller 4.3u @ -215 to win 3u
I love this bet. Miller is going to mop the floor with Shalorus everywhere the fight goes. Kamal could get the KO maybe 2/10 times with his very aggressive first round striking but he softens quickly and Miller is a cardio machine and one of the more technical fighters at LW. He will be patient and let Kamal wear himself out then dominate wrestling and striking.

Parlay
Rua/Wineland .5u to win 5.24u
I think this has a much better chance of cashing than the odds they're giving me indicate. Faber is a big target at BW and there is plenty of tape on him. Wineland is a beast and is on a big streak at a prime age. We'll see what happens

Parlay
Miller/Marquardt/Shaub 1u to win 1.65u
This parlay is square and I shouldn't have made it. I don't see sexy beating marquardt anywhere but he is a surprising fighter sometimes so we'll see. Cro Cop hopefully will get tired of gatekeeping one of these days and retire. Hopefully it won't take another big KO to do it.

[kiefynugs]

Added 2u to Shogun at +170 for a total of 7u to win 11.9u

[FlashinLeather]

UFC 128 Plays

Shogun 5u @ +170 to win 8.5u
This one is messing with me big time. I've spouted plenty of opinions about why I think shogun will win that you can find in other threads but basically I think jones is going to get knocked out early or badly beat up.

Jim Miller 4.3u @ -215 to win 3u
I love this bet. Miller is going to mop the floor with Shalorus everywhere the fight goes. Kamal could get the KO maybe 2/10 times with his very aggressive first round striking but he softens quickly and Miller is a cardio machine and one of the more technical fighters at LW. He will be patient and let Kamal wear himself out then dominate wrestling and striking.

Parlay
Rua/Wineland .5u to win 5.24u
I think this has a much better chance of cashing than the odds they're giving me indicate. Faber is a big target at BW and there is plenty of tape on him. Wineland is a beast and is on a big streak at a prime age. We'll see what happens

Parlay
Miller/Marquardt/Shaub 1u to win 1.65u
This parlay is square and I shouldn't have made it. I don't see sexy beating marquardt anywhere but he is a surprising fighter sometimes so we'll see. Cro Cop hopefully will get tired of gatekeeping one of these days and retire. Hopefully it won't take another big KO to do it.

How come you are on shogun so hard, don't blow your whole stack haha. Always I like the miller bet a lot, and I like your Rua/Wieland both have a lot of value. As for your last parlay I just can't bet against CroCop, and Marquardt has been such a disappointment in the past that I can't put money on him.

BOL, hoping your Shogun bet hits

[kiefynugs]

i bet the 5 on 5dimes forgetting I had bet the early 2 on bookmaker, but I'm confident that shogun takes this

[kiefynugs]

added jones by decision 1.25u @+465 to win 5.81u

[Camdemonium]

Is it just me or are your last two posts contradictory?

[xelance]

its a hedge bet...meant to cut down on losses if Shogun loses. Of course if shogun loses inside the distance, then he loses even more...but you wont find Jones +465 inside the distance ANYWHERE. Odds wise, for a hedge, it was played correctly.

[kiefynugs]

honestly jones could knock shogun out. I just really dont see it. People have to use all their energy just to stay on top of shogun.

And knocking him out in the standup? Forget about it.

The sub is a little more dangerous if shogun gasses out.

[kiefynugs]

More 128 Plays
Miller by sub 0.5u @ +325 to win 1.63u
Shaub by TKO/KO 1u @ EV to win 1u
Shalorus/Miller Draw .5u @ +3500 to win 17.5u
Almeida 3.2u @ -160 to win 2u
Pellegrino 2.4u @ -120 to win 2u

That last one I'm completely ashamed of. I completely misjudged the line movement for this fight. Didn't realize so many would be leaning Tibau. I do think Kurt will take it but I could have gotten much better odds.

[kiefynugs]

UFC 128 Plays
Shogun 7u @ +170 to win 11.9u
Jim Miller 4.3u @ -215 to win 3u
Parlay Rua/Wineland .5u to win 5.24u
Parlay Miller/Shaub 1u to win .97u
jones by decision 1.25u @+465 to win 5.81u
Miller by sub 0.5u @ +325 to win 1.63u
Shaub by TKO/KO 1u @ EV to win 1u
Shalorus/Miller Draw .5u @ +3500 to win 17.5u
Almeida 3.2u @ -160 to win 2u
Pellegrino 2.4u @ -120 to win 2u

I'm not even gonna do the math. something like -10u

[kiefynugs]

Adding a couple UFN 24 Plays to this trainwreck of a thread.
Morecraft 9.5u @ -190 to win 5u
Garcia 2.2u @ -110 to win 2u
Fortunately I've made up for my apparently shitty MMA picking with pro hoops

[The HOFF]

I think those are two solid bets. McCorkle looked ok at the weigh-in and appears to be in the best shape I have seen. But that doesn't magically fix his shitty technique and cardio, so hopefully Morecraft does some work for us.

[Vaughany]

I think those are two solid bets. McCorkle looked ok at the weigh-in and appears to be in the best shape I have seen. But that doesn't magically fix his shitty technique and cardio, so hopefully Morecraft does some work for us.

Yeah but I think Morecraft looked like he had less body fat around the midrift as well!

[kiefynugs]

This is a bad style matchup for McCorkle. He is the worse striker and it will be very hard for him to get the TD. Morecraft meanwhile can do major damage from top and can wear McCorkle out easily standing.

If Morecraft stays off his back he won't lose.

Probably bet too much on this but there's nothing else on the card I'm too enthused with.

[omalley21]

I think you're gonna do well on the card. GL.

[kiefynugs]

I think you're gonna do well on the card. GL.

hell yeah. My morecraft bet landed and the fight went exactly how I thought it would. A small glimmer of hope in an otherwise tragic mma betting career