UFC 126 Card

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  • terpkeg
    SBR MVP
    • 10-26-09
    • 2364

    #1
    UFC 126 Card
    Mike Pierce over Kenny Robertson -240 5dimes 2.4u/1u
    Maybe I am missing something here, and feel free to critisize the play, but Robertson seems to fit right into Pierce's style. Why is this line dropping? Openign -400 accurate imo. Robertson still seems uncomfortable on the feet, He has only been training MMA for 3 years and still has a day job. Pierce lives off of taking people down and grinding them from guard wrestling, but has the power to boot with the big overhand right that can change a fight at any moment. Comes from a better camp in Team Quest. If Robertson cant consistantly put Pierce on his back, I dont see how he wins this fight. Robertson does have a D1 wrestlign background, but he took out Larson and Bradley, who both have very strong wrestling backgrounds. Plus Robertson has to deal with UFC jitters and is coming off of an injury.

    Silva over Belfort inside Distance -130 Bodog 1.3u/1u
    Silva always brings it in the biggest fights (see his early UFC fights, Franklin, Hendersen and Griffin) and he seems extremely focused for this fight. I excpet a slow start as both guys may be looking to counter strike, but Belfort will be first to break down imo as he has in the past. I cant see him pushing hard for 3 rounds, where Andersen has shown a great chin and resilance. Silva is best striker in world, a great wrestler is the best chance to take him out imo unless injuries and age have actual cought up with him. But, I am not betting on that.

    Franklin/Griffin to Distance (if you can get this under -150) 5dimes currently has -155, i played -115 while back.
    Basically, both guys do not have big power and are not explosive grapplers, but are still very skilled grapplers nonetheless. Griffin's size make Franklin stay at range imo. Best chance for finish is when guys are fresh in first and early second, but I think the layoff from both guys may lead to a slower opening round. Biggest fear is Griffin's chin.
  • Eccocide
    SBR MVP
    • 01-12-09
    • 2126

    #2
    GL Terp! Im on all 3 but I have Pierce in a parlay, not SU.
    Comment
    • Vaughany
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 03-07-10
      • 45563

      #3
      maybe the Pierce movement is because of the weigh-ins at 172 And although he beat larson he has lost to all other wrestlers he has faced...Fitch, Coy and Munoz (allbeit the latter two were at beginning of his career).
      Comment
      • Eccocide
        SBR MVP
        • 01-12-09
        • 2126

        #4
        Pierce gave Fitch the most problems Fitch has ever had outside of GSP and Robertson's nowhere near Fitch's level standing or wrestling.
        Comment
        • terpkeg
          SBR MVP
          • 10-26-09
          • 2364

          #5
          Thoughts on other dark fights:

          Kingsbury v. Romero
          Kingsbury has shown decent hands imo. I feel like he has good timing and a fast 1/2 combo. All AKA fighters stand up seems to improve at a rapid rate as well. Romero is tough as nails, he came out of the Petruzelli fight with partia tear in acl, torn pec, torn bicep and broken jaw. Yet, still imposed his will. He was a very good college wrestler and has good subs. However, his stand up has not progressed as much as I would expect from earlier fights. I lean Kingsbury and was close to taking him. But, he was taken down by Al Hassan not too long ago wish is not promising and Mike COnstitino at AMA seems to put together good game plans. Kingsbury doesnt throw many kicks and does seem suseptible to them. I still lean Kingsbury, but no play for now.

          Taylor v. Ruediger
          I really wanted to take Taylor at -180, but held off, now out of the question at -220 to -250 for me. Taylor is former pro title holder in kickboxing. I thought he beat Lytle on feet and many people thought he beat Stout, so take 3-5 record for what it is in UFC. He has trouble when put on back (see Kelly and Hathaway fights). Question is can Ruediger, who is well rounded on feet and has solid bjj, get him there. I dont think so, but maybe I am underestimating his wrestling. Can't take taylor at -200 and up when so suseptible in one area.
          Comment
          • Educ8d Degener8
            SBR MVP
            • 01-12-10
            • 3177

            #6
            Like the last 2 plays for sure....

            I like Pierce -- he's done good for me on some past bets... But, I got a real funny gut feeling here, and given the line movement, I'm just staying away, but wish you luck none the less. (Robertson's stand up did look pretty pedestrian in all the footage I saw.)
            Comment
            • terpkeg
              SBR MVP
              • 10-26-09
              • 2364

              #7
              Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
              Like the last 2 plays for sure....

              I like Pierce -- he's done good for me on some past bets... But, I got a real funny gut feeling here, and given the line movement, I'm just staying away, but wish you luck none the less. (Robertson's stand up did look pretty pedestrian in all the footage I saw.)

              I know what you mean. I feel uneasy about this play when I am usually confident. Tried to find a reason why I am wrong and could not though.
              Comment
              • terpkeg
                SBR MVP
                • 10-26-09
                • 2364

                #8
                Jones over Bader -3.5 -160 5dimes 1.6u/1u

                Jones comes in with immense hype. But this is a different type of hype imo. It isnt just fans and media, every high level MMA trainer who has scene this guy in the past few years has all but guarenteed he will be a champion one day. Bader cannot stand at a distance and try to strike with Jones, this means he has to get inside, either maul Jones on the cage, or put him on his back. Thing is, the athelisim of Jones seems unmatched. He threw Matt Hamill around like he was a little kid. I just dont see Bader, while being a very accomplished wrestler, being able to consistently take Jones down. I think Jones hurts Bader throughout, makes him pay for takedown attempts and finishes him in 2nd or 3rd. Bader is a tough dude, and if he survives, im not sure he does enough to take a round on all three cards.
                Comment
                • terpkeg
                  SBR MVP
                  • 10-26-09
                  • 2364

                  #9
                  Omigawa over Mendes inside distance +694 5dimes .15u/1u
                  Omigawa +3.5 +163 5dimes .4u/.66u

                  Inside Distance moved off of +830 as I was putting bet in which was a little dissappointing. Maybe I am just fishing for an underdog cause I dont like too many tonight and it makes me uneasy. But, I think Omigawa is live. We know what Mendes will do, shot for takedowns and grind it out.
                  Omigawa is an accoplished Judaka, he has very good inside and outside trips from the clinch. Since moving to FW, best wrestler he has faced in probobly LC Davis who he took down at will. I expect Mendez to score takedowns, but his style may not be appealing to the judges and the crowd. Therefore, it may not be a stretch for Omigawa to steal a round and take the +3.5. He has power for a FW and is dangerous off of his back. Mendes chin has not been tested from what I have seen and even if Omigawa doesnt get a finish, maybe he lands a nice strike to start a round or after a stand up or scramble and takes a round. He should be active the whole time, has a huge heart and puts on a show.
                  Mendes grinding a decision 30-27 would not be a suprise by any means, but I like my chnces here since I dont see a finish.
                  Comment
                  • rocky mattioli
                    SBR MVP
                    • 08-26-10
                    • 1263

                    #10
                    could you explain the +3.5 to me?........i`ve never played those props....

                    would 30-27 /3 times be a -9?.....cause i suspect that`s how it`s going down....

                    help a brother out....

                    thanks...
                    Comment
                    • rocky mattioli
                      SBR MVP
                      • 08-26-10
                      • 1263

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
                      Like the last 2 plays for sure....

                      I like Pierce -- he's done good for me on some past bets... But, I got a real funny gut feeling here, and given the line movement, I'm just staying away, but wish you luck none the less. (Robertson's stand up did look pretty pedestrian in all the footage I saw.)

                      agreed...i thought robertson looked very pedestrian...
                      Comment
                      • Poppa Catfish
                        SBR MVP
                        • 09-22-10
                        • 3352

                        #12
                        Win lose or draw I'm with you on Pierce
                        Comment
                        • Vaughany
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 03-07-10
                          • 45563

                          #13
                          Pierce gets second round TKO.
                          Comment
                          • rocky mattioli
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-26-10
                            • 1263

                            #14
                            pierce handles robertson...stoppage in the 2nd...
                            Comment
                            • Poppa Catfish
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-22-10
                              • 3352

                              #15
                              The round ends with a Pierce takedown. 10-9 Pierce.

                              Wait is the play by play on sherdog lagging?
                              Comment
                              • rocky mattioli
                                SBR MVP
                                • 08-26-10
                                • 1263

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Poppa Catfish
                                The round ends with a Pierce takedown. 10-9 Pierce.

                                it`s over brother...you`re home...
                                Comment
                                • Poppa Catfish
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-22-10
                                  • 3352

                                  #17
                                  yes, yes it is. Alright! Nice way to start the night.
                                  Comment
                                  • Eccocide
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-12-09
                                    • 2126

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Poppa Catfish
                                    The round ends with a Pierce takedown. 10-9 Pierce.

                                    Wait is the play by play on sherdog lagging?
                                    Sherdogs play by play is always much behind mmafighting and mmajunkie.

                                    And yay Pierce starts off the night well for us!
                                    Comment
                                    • Poppa Catfish
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-22-10
                                      • 3352

                                      #19




                                      I was on that play much too large for my tastes, just didn't see anything out of Robertson
                                      Comment
                                      • xelance
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 11-25-10
                                        • 1750

                                        #20
                                        nice call on pierce! going to start an infight thread
                                        Comment
                                        • terpkeg
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 10-26-09
                                          • 2364

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Poppa Catfish




                                          I was on that play much too large for my tastes, just didn't see anything out of Robertson

                                          I hear you. I was on it larger than I posted as well. To start new year i decided to constrict my own variation a bit and to only post to win 1 unit plays, even when I am on it more because I dont always trust my own assesment of my edge and feel terrible if people tail my plays large.
                                          Comment
                                          • Poppa Catfish
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-22-10
                                            • 3352

                                            #22
                                            Totally understand that. Seen it happen to a lot of handicappers, the weight of the many seem to really drag them down. I would just stick to just listing the plays and saying I medium like this, etc.
                                            Comment
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