Nick Diaz: best conservative bet since Phil Davis?

[jacktheknife]

-313 on Pinnacle. Damned if I'll get anything like that.

Nevertheless, I find myself wondering how this Santos is given a better shot then the Jets against the patriots.

[Straight Cash]

Yeah, I dont see Santos even close to Diaz's league...

[Poppa Catfish]

Nevertheless, I find myself wondering how this Santos is given a better shot then the Jets against the patriots.

Even if the other team pulls off the most miraculous TD, a team like the Patriots will always have the remaining time in 4 quarters to assert their dominance over the opposing side. All it takes in MMA is one mistake.

[jacktheknife]

Even if the other team pulls off the most miraculous TD, a team will always have the remaining 4 quarters to assert their dominance over the opposing side. All it takes in MMA is one mistake.

Frankie Edgar says read that first sentence back slowly.

[Poppa Catfish]

You mean the sentence I edited 15 minutes prior to your post, bro? How long exactly did it take you to think up that clever post with the pic and whatnot?

[Vaughany]

You mean the sentence I edited 15 minutes prior to your post, bro? How long exactly did it take you to think up that clever post with the pic and whatnot?

hahha I guess 14minutes 59 seconds!

[Vaughany]

Maybe Cyborg CANtos has a better shot than u think because Diaz might not be very motivated for this fight whilst CANtos undoubtedly will be.

[Poppa Catfish]

hahha I guess 14minutes 59 seconds!

I don't know, I would wager it probably took him a minute or two to find the submit reply button. Maybe an extra minute to figure out how to right click, so lets say 11 minutes 59 seconds

[Poppa Catfish]

Maybe Cyborg CANtos has a better shot than u think because Diaz might not be very motivated for this fight whilst CANtos undoubtedly will be.

ha you would have hit the perfecta if you had worked in the fact that his non black skin cuts when the wind picks up.

Do you also think that Diaz might also be a tad bit overrated? Granted that probably has more to do with his wrestling deficiency than anything else, but still the guy hasn't fought the sharpest of competition. I don't see him losing to the aptly named Cantos, but I sure wouldn't be surprised if it did happen. Your thoughts?

[terpkeg]

I tend to agree with the TS. I have yet to make a play on this one and have been wanting to watch more Santos footage. But, nothing off the top of my head makes me think he can exploit Diaz lack of wrestling.

Plus, while the one mistake aspect of an MMA fight is always there, I feel like this mindset is what keeps value in favorites in MMA. While you regularly see boxing fights with -500 and up lines, all the way to -2000, MMA favs seem undervalued more often.

Will one mistake really hurt Diaz here? Yeah, anything is possible, but the guy has shown an iron chin his whole career and nothing would lead me to believe Santos will be in a position to take advantage of a mistake on the ground.

Cut is always something to consider, but hasnt been an issue post surgery and cuts seem overblown in MMA. How many fights actually end by cut? I dont know, maybe 1% - 2%.

Like i said, I realy need to do some more work on this fight. Re-watch footage, examine training camps, but at first glance, this looks no different than any of Diaz other fights in strikeforce angainst Strikers with either no takedown ability, or no desire to take the fight down.

[Vaughany]

ha you would have hit the perfecta if you had worked in the fact that his non black skin cuts when the wind picks up.

Do you also think that Diaz might also be a tad bit overrated? Granted that probably has more to do with his wrestling deficiency than anything else, but still the guy hasn't fought the sharpest of competition. I don't see him losing to the aptly named Cantos, but I sure wouldn't be surprised if it did happen. Your thoughts?

ha oh yes I forgot that Diaz isnt actually black (His mannerisms and gang affiliated attitude sometimes makes it confusing though)! My general rule is that I dont go for anybody at -300 unless they are a dominant wrestler with good gameplanning (a la GSP) then -300 isnt necessarily bad value. And I will sometimes use -300 or worse in parlays as I have done with Diaz as long as I think there is a decent chance that they win. With regards to him being overated...well lets be honest, without creating another "You suck Dana White's balls" or "You're a UFC fanboy" shit-storm, dare I say that the level of competition that Diaz has faced in recent times is not exactly impressive! Since he lost to Noons back in 2007 he has beaten (all convincingly) Inoue, Corbbrey, Denny, Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith, Zaromskis, Sakurai, and Noons. Non of them are upper level LW's or Welterweights but then of course he can only beat what is put in front of him so I dont know whether it is fair to say he is overated or not. Nontheless, the fact is that he has not beaten a high-level fighter in the last 3 years, so Im sceptical as to whether he should be considered a top 10 welterweight as many claim including Joe Rogan. But with regards to this fight against Cyborg, of course he should win and Im happy to include him in a parlay or two, but I dont think Id play him straight up at -313 and certainly not at -500 (Bodog line). Should also bare in mind that Cyborg should have a considerable size advantage. Diaz has fought at LW in the past while Cyborg as fought big middleweights and LHW like James Zikic, Mousasi, Shogun, Manhoef, allbeit lost to all of them! I also read an article the other day about how Diaz is misunderstood, but the writer even said that he didnt think Diaz seemed motivated for the fight.

[terpkeg]

ha oh yes I forgot that Diaz isnt actually black (His mannerisms and gang affiliated attitude sometimes makes it confusing though)! My general rule is that I dont go for anybody at -300 unless they are a dominant wrestler with good gameplanning (a la GSP) then -300 isnt necessarily bad value. And I will sometimes use -300 or worse in parlays as I have done with Diaz as long as I think there is a decent chance that they win. With regards to him being overated...well lets be honest, without creating another "You suck Dana White's balls" or "You're a UFC fanboy" shit-storm, dare I say that the level of competition that Diaz has faced in recent times is not exactly impressive! Since he lost to Noons back in 2007 he has beaten (all convincingly) Inoue, Corbbrey, Denny, Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith, Zaromskis, Sakurai, and Noons. Non of them are upper level LW's or Welterweights but then of course he can only beat what is put in front of him so I dont know whether it is fair to say he is overated or not. Nontheless, the fact is that he has not beaten a high-level fighter in the last 3 years, so Im sceptical as to whether he should be considered a top 10 welterweight as many claim including Joe Rogan. But with regards to this fight against Cyborg, of course he should win and Im happy to include him in a parlay or two, but I dont think Id play him straight up at -313 and certainly not at -500 (Bodog line). Should also bare in mind that Cyborg should have a considerable size advantage. Diaz has fought at LW in the past while Cyborg as fought big middleweights and LHW like James Zikic, Mousasi, Shogun, Manhoef, allbeit lost to all of them! I also read an article the other day about how Diaz is misunderstood, but the writer even said that he didnt think Diaz seemed motivated for the fight.

You see the interview with Greg Savage on Sherdog? Was suprised about Diaz attitude re: not getting anything back from the Sport. Seemed discontent re: pay, maybe recognition.

I dont know if it has any effect on his performance though. May even be a motivator, especially if SF has win bonuses.

[Vaughany]

You see the interview with Greg Savage on Sherdog? Was suprised about Diaz attitude re: not getting anything back from the Sport. Seemed discontent re: pay, maybe recognition.

I dont know if it has any effect on his performance though. May even be a motivator, especially if SF has win bonuses.

I havnt listened to that one, but seems like it was similar sentiments to what I read...think it was this article on sportsillustrated...http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/201...#ixzz1Auk1NF89

Yeah, Diaz is clearly a natural born scrapper so Im pretty sure on the day he is always motivated or at least as soon as he takes a punch to the face his motivation is suddenly ignited!

[Pride>UFC]

Nick Diaz= baddest mofo on the planet...he's the only guy that can beat GSP

Cyborg Santos= just some ugly guy whose wife is the best p4p fighter in the world

I can't wait for the stare down...Diaz by submission round 2

[Vaughany]

Nick Diaz= baddest mofo on the planet...he's the only guy that can beat GSP

You're on fire today Pride!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Nick Diaz= baddest mofo on the planet...he's the only guy that can beat GSP

beat GSP??? the guy couldn't beat Diego Sanchez, Joe Riggs or Sean Sherk. He beats up on some cans outside of the UFC and now he's a bad mofo

[lasker]

beat GSP??? the guy couldn't beat Diego Sanchez, Joe Riggs or Sean Sherk. He beats up on some cans outside of the UFC and now he's a bad mofo

obviously that's because when he fought for the UFC he was a can, like all UFC fighters. But now he's with Strikeforce, therefore he has become the baddest mofo on the planet.

[jacktheknife]

You mean the sentence I edited 15 minutes prior to your post, bro? How long exactly did it take you to think up that clever post with the pic and whatnot?

Nope.

This one right here.

Even if the other someone pulls off the most miraculous something, someone will always have the remaining 4 somethings to assert their dominance over the opposing side.

Take your time.