Dunham -237

[Riot]

No such thing as a lock... but is this as close as it comes. You got a guy with half his wins by submissions (6) fighting a guy who has all but 1 of his losses via submission (8)

I think mentally, Gulliard is screwd if this fight goes to the ground because hes going to get that "Here we go again mentality" I think this is a safe bet, maybe, for the sake of caution, somebody could convince me other wise ..

[Vaughany]

If you're so sure that Dunham wins this by sub then Dunham by Submission at +200 would make sense!

[Vrakas]

dunham will win how he wins is really anyones guess the way he pushes the pace, by submission most likely.

[Kaladarus]

+200 for submission is a great price considering Guillard loves getting submitted.

[lasker]

Guillard wins in round 1 +815 Dunham is rightly favored but if Guillard wins it's highly likely it will be in round 1 imo.

[Vaughany]

Guillard wins in round 1 +815 Dunham is rightly favored but if Guillard wins it's highly likely it will be in round 1 imo.

Yep this is tempting! But Im gonna wait and see what Guillard KO of the Night is first in case it's slightly better!

[ddream1]

i could see g.jackson having melvin just circling throwing jabs and kicks utilizing his speed, footwork and new found patience. i wanted to take melvin bad but my gut says no, its a pass for me, but i think u guys all have the right idea. factor here for me is jackson's gameplan and if melvin is willing to show up for a winner and not a highlight show. great matchup cannot wait

[snake11eyes]

Guillard wins in round 1 +815 Dunham is rightly favored but if Guillard wins it's highly likely it will be in round 1 imo.

Have you ever been so sure that fighter A will beat fighter B, but just cant pull the trigger. This is how I feel about this fight. Dunham is the favorite and should win fairly easy I believe, but I want to bet Guillard for some reason. My gut is telling me Guillard pulls this out somehow and that round 1 prop sounds real nice.

[lasker]

i could see g.jackson having melvin just circling throwing jabs and kicks utilizing his speed, footwork and new found patience. i wanted to take melvin bad but my gut says no, its a pass for me, but i think u guys all have the right idea. factor here for me is jackson's gameplan and if melvin is willing to show up for a winner and not a highlight show. great matchup cannot wait

yes, it should be a great match and I expect it to finish inside the distance. I agree that Melvin will probably adopt a patient gameplan, but Dunham is an aggressive fighter and will not be content to just keep it as a boxing match (like Stephens did). At some point in 15 minutes I think there will be a wild exchange leading to either a knockout by Guillard or submission by Dunham. Dunham has good offensive striking but I've felt his striking defense leaves a lot to be desired. He has a good chin, but against Guillard he won't want to have it tested.

[lasker]

Have you ever been so sure that fighter A will beat fighter B, but just cant pull the trigger. This is how I feel about this fight. Dunham is the favorite and should win fairly easy I believe, but I want to bet Guillard for some reason. My gut is telling me Guillard pulls this out somehow and that round 1 prop sounds real nice.

Go with your gut! I'm on the Dunham hype train, I've been backing him since his fights with Escudero and Griffin. In terms of styles, he hasn't faced an opponent similar to Guillard before (not even close) and I really feel he is being overrated in these odds. I included Dunham by submission in some props, but in terms of value Guillard is my pick (especially Guillard in round 1 +815 and Guillard wins by TKO +524).

[Poppa Catfish]

Have you ever been so sure that fighter A will beat fighter B, but just cant pull the trigger. This is how I feel about this fight. Dunham is the favorite and should win fairly easy I believe, but I want to bet Guillard for some reason. My gut is telling me Guillard pulls this out somehow and that round 1 prop sounds real nice.

I'm going to start tailing your gut.

[Vaughany]

yes, it should be a great match and I expect it to finish inside the distance. I agree that Melvin will probably adopt a patient gameplan, but Dunham is an aggressive fighter and will not be content to just keep it as a boxing match (like Stephens did). At some point in 15 minutes I think there will be a wild exchange leading to either a knockout by Guillard or submission by Dunham.

THis is key for me. I've noticed on other forums that dudes are sayin Guillard will just do the same as he did against Stephens and pull off a boring decision (due to the Jackson influence). They clearly arnt considering the differnt styles of Stephens and Dunham. Of course as you point out Lask, Dunham is not going to just stand there planting his feet looking for the one punch KO like Stephens did. If anything it will be the complete opposite and Dunham will rush in and look to use his superior grappling (an advantage that Stephens clearly didnt have and therefore was hesitant to get too close to Guillard). So for me you cant draw much from that last fight as Dunham and Stephens are very different (apart from both being very tough and resilient)!

[terpkeg]

Guillard has evolved as a fighter imo. He has been sub'd once in past 3 years when he made the mistake against Nate Diaz. Torres and Tibau had trouble controlling him on the ground when the got him there. Giullard has develped sold takedown defense and has a great wall walk to get back up.

I think it will be hard to sub Guillard early. If Dunham can turn this into grappling expo and fatigue Guillard, he very well could lock on up late 2nd or 3rd and I would not be suprised by any means. But, I think Guillard sub defense is very underrated since he has been training in N.M.

[terpkeg]

THis is key for me. I've noticed on other forums that dudes are sayin Guillard will just do the same as he did against Stephens and pull off a boring decision (due to the Jackson influence). They clearly arnt considering the differnt styles of Stephens and Dunham. Of course as you point out Lask, Dunham is not going to just stand there planting his feet looking for the one punch KO like Stephens did. If anything it will be the complete opposite and Dunham will rush in and look to use his superior grappling (an advantage that Stephens clearly didnt have and therefore was hesitant to get too close to Guillard). So for me you cant draw much from that last fight as Dunham and Stephens are very different (apart from both being very tough and resilient)!

I agree here. I dont think Guillard will be able to keep distance the entire fight. He wil have to survive grappling.

[sirchadwick1]

Post-Coke Guillard could take this fight via UD. I like +200. Dunham is awesome, but Melvin will give him trouble here.

Definitely not a lock for Dunham at all.