Justin Wilcox +220 v. Vitor Ribeiro

[terpkeg]

I think there is a great chance Wilcox gets the win here, should be a pick em imo.

Wilcox took apart Shamar Bailey on the feet last time out. His stand up continues to improve greatly as does everyone at AKA. It was not too long ago that Ribeiro was out struck by Shinya Aoki fairly convincingly.

Wilcox has the wrestling backround to keep this fight up. I think he wins.

[Vaughany]

I agree, good value play. Unfortunately not available on any of my books

[omalley21]

I agree also. Where you find the line?

[Vaughany]

Just put 0.2 units on Wilcox at +220 on Pinnacle. I had a small play on Fancy Pants when he was the dog in Ribeiro's last fight. Ribeiro has lost 2 on the bounce so I was expecting Wilcox to come out between +175 and +200, so +220 is decent value IMO. Have also put 0.2 units on St. Preux at +205 and 0.1 units on Carmouche at +105. 3 underdogs but Im Hopefully 2 of those 3 will pull through and am confident that at least one of Wilcox or St Preux will win.

[lasker]

I agree there might be some value here, and I put a little bit on it myself earlier, but I wouldn't suggest going overboard with this one. Wilcox has stated in interviews that he'll be fine wherever the fight goes, that he's a fighter with a fighter's mentality and he thinks he can hang with Ribeiro on the ground. He trains hard and comes from a great camp, and Camarillo is one of the best BJJ trainers out there, but it seems like Wilcox doesn't think a whole lot about gameplanning. Ribeiro, meanwhile, is no longer working as a BJJ trainer in Brazil and has devoted himself full-time to training for this fight. This includes training a few times a week with strong wrestlers like the Miller brothers (dan and jim, not cole and micah ). He sounds highly motivated, and you'd have to think that if the fight hits the ground Ribeiro is on another level, no matter how hard Wilcox has been training. There's a good chance we'll see a better Ribeiro than we've seen before, and this fight may bring back some of the hype he had when he was a new prospect in MMA. Just some food for thought.

[rocky mattioli]

just watched video on jan finney`s opponent carmouche....she looks awfully small...likes to clinch and hold opponents up against the cage...

finney`s not going to beat the elite women...but she`s fought many of them...and basically holds her own(with the exeception of santos)...

she looks much bigger and stronger...and much more experienced...

the odds have flipped toward finney...i think i see why...heres the video...

http://www.mma-core.com/videos/_Colleen_Schneider_vs_Liz_Carmouche_Strikeforce_Ch?vid=10012020

[terpkeg]

I agree there might be some value here, and I put a little bit on it myself earlier, but I wouldn't suggest going overboard with this one. Wilcox has stated in interviews that he'll be fine wherever the fight goes, that he's a fighter with a fighter's mentality and he thinks he can hang with Ribeiro on the ground. He trains hard and comes from a great camp, and Camarillo is one of the best BJJ trainers out there, but it seems like Wilcox doesn't think a whole lot about gameplanning. Ribeiro, meanwhile, is no longer working as a BJJ trainer in Brazil and has devoted himself full-time to training for this fight. This includes training a few times a week with strong wrestlers like the Miller brothers (dan and jim, not cole and micah ). He sounds highly motivated, and you'd have to think that if the fight hits the ground Ribeiro is on another level, no matter how hard Wilcox has been training. There's a good chance we'll see a better Ribeiro than we've seen before, and this fight may bring back some of the hype he had when he was a new prospect in MMA. Just some food for thought.

I would not suggestg going overboard either. Too clarify for any lurkers in the MMA forum, I would not suggest going overboard on any play I post here. I start these threads lately recomending one specific play, instead of posting in my old year long thread, primarily because I want to generate more discussion about plays where I have an opinion and get dissenting viewpoints. I am not opposed to scaling plays down or betting off if I feel I made a mistake

If this fight plays out on the ground, I don't see a positive outcome either. And, I expect Ribeiro to be relentlessly trying to take this down. But I dont think it will be pretty for the judges if Wilcox can keep it up for extended periods of time where I think he has the advantage.

Where is he training with the Miller brothers? Is he in Jersey?

[terpkeg]

Now living in New York and operating a jiu jitsu school in Manhattan, the Brazilian knew that he needed to establish himself in his adopted home before he could once again challenge the best.

"I almost brought Marlon Sandro, but it didn't work well because he has a fight in December. I brought Gabriel Miglioli from Brazil, he's a very strong guy in wrestling and boxing. And a couple days a week I meet all the guys from AMA. Jim Miller, Dan Miller and a couple of guys. Charlie Brenneman and some guys with a nice background in wrestling to make sure I am used to that game. We have a couple of guys from Michigan here too, to train jiu jitsu in my school. I believe for this fight it has been amazing I have been able to get a good camp in. My school has started to do pretty good without me - so I've really focused myself on this fight. I train twice a day, one time Saturday, rest Sunday. Those guys (Nova Uniao) are all in Brazil right now. But it still worked well, because the friendship I have with Dan Miller, Jim Miller, is pretty good. It's a nice exchange of knowledge. A very tough wrestler and a really top fighter, so we can exchange good things together. My coach is going to come in too, so it will be me Gabriel, and (coach Andre Pedernairas) Dede together for my fight."

[Vaughany]

Wilcox looked like he's been on the juice judging from the weigh-ins! He's ripped and got veins popping out all over the place. His arms loo 3 times as thick as Ribeiro's!

[urge2kill]

You ain't kidding.

[urge2kill]

[Vaughany]

Check out the arm size difference! Ironically, Wilcox has featured in a lot of articles and talked about how he is a 'drug-free' body-builder! ....

[Vaughany]

Wilcox is down to +194 now on Pinnacle and even as far down +160 on Bodog. This is what I expected the line to come out as from the start so very happy to of got him at +220!

[ufcmma36]

bol... wilcox looks good

[NickTheGrip]

Well that went as planned. Good call.

[Vaughany]

Good stuff Terp, nice little profit for the night for me thanks to three dogs winning!

[Zeke1]

Nice call!