A Parlay On Jan.1 That will start 2011 in a good way. :)

[RaiderNation MMA]

Jose Aldo (Vs. Josh Grispi)

Jeremy Stephens (Vs. Marcus Davis)

Mike Brown (Vs. Diego Nunes)

There are no lines on any of these fights as two of them were only just announced today.

But if you want sure bet as far as parlays go, this is it.

Mike Brown is a machine who will destroy anyone in his division except for mr aldo. his only other fluke loss came to manny G. however, rumors reported him and his girlfriend broke up and he allegedly missed 4 weeks of training camp.

Marcus Davis is very old and his generation of fighters are done. plus, this is his first fight at 155, the cut will suck the lfie out of him, look for jeremy on the easy KO.

and aldo. no explanation required.

i also like daniel roberts!!


i cant wait

[bogbat]

I would wager that you have lost far more money that you have won in your gambling career.

[RaiderNation MMA]

nope. i havent wagered any real money

[GoldenYAK]

25 point bet this doesn't hit??

[snake11eyes]

I would wager that you have lost far more money that you have won in your gambling career.

Yep I agree.

[Kaladarus]

I would wager that you have lost far more money that you have won in your gambling career.

It's kind of unfair to say that. He's got his reasons for this parlay and you haven't stated why you don't like the play. Seems like a pointless post. If anything Raiders could just be throwing these fights out there early to get opinions before the lines open. It's kind of pointless chasing away new people that are willing to discuss fights.

[RaiderNation MMA]

25 point bet this doesn't hit??

your on if your serious!!

yeah i just wanted to know what u guys thought, i like to think im alright at putting together parlays, im sure these three will be all favorites, but there are the biggest mis matches i have ever seen.

im really loving this parlay and there is no reason why any of these three dudes will lose.

i understand parlays dont always hit and lots of people have been screwed by them, but im almost 99% sure this will hit on new years.

but i guess we will just have to wait and found out wont we!

apologies if you felt i wasted your time, just something to think about i suppose

[Vaughany]

your on if your serious!!

yeah i just wanted to know what u guys thought, i like to think im alright at putting together parlays, im sure these three will be all favorites, but there are the biggest mis matches i have ever seen.

im really loving this parlay and there is no reason why any of these three dudes will lose.

i understand parlays dont always hit and lots of people have been screwed by them, but im almost 99% sure this will hit on new years.

but i guess we will just have to wait and found out wont we!

apologies if you felt i wasted your time, just something to think about i suppose

Looks good on paper but I wouldnt be so sure that they are all mismatches. Grispi will be Aldo's toughest fight yet, he's never faced anybody with Grispi's reach and size although he should clearly still win. His odds will be no better than -400 tho. I also like Stephens to beat Davis and will be placing a single bet on him if I can get Lil Heathen at -125 or better. Mike Brown always comes out as a big favourite, even against Aldo he was -175 or something, and against Manny he was -350 to -425. Obviously he should win comfortably but because of the chalk on Aldo and Brown you will probably find that the parlay equates to a maximum of +200 overall. When I do a parlay which isnt very often, I tend to only do them as a hedge to a single bet (like I've got Mendes in current parlay as I have a single bet on Vasquez), and also tend to only do 4 out of 5 fold, trebles out of 4 fold, etc... parlays and always include at least one underdog who is at least +150 odds just so that I'm more likely to get something back if one of the picks goes wrong. For instance, I've got 3 out of 4 folds on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin and Sotiropolous currently as I'm very confident at least 3 of those 4 will win and if my Vazquez single bet wins all is not lost with this parlay as I'll still get something back if Faber, Jabouin and Sotiropolous win. However, it seems only the UK based bookies seem to offer those type of parlay options

[RaiderNation MMA]

Looks good on paper but I wouldnt be so sure that they are all mismatches. Grispi will be Aldo's toughest fight yet, he's never faced anybody with Grispi's reach and size although he should clearly still win. His odds will be no better than -400 tho. I also like Stephens to beat Davis and will be placing a single bet on him if I can get Lil Heathen at -125 or better. Mike Brown always comes out as a big favourite, even against Aldo he was -175 or something, and against Manny he was -350 to -425. Obviously he should win comfortably but because of the chalk on Aldo and Brown you will probably find that the parlay equates to a maximum of +200 overall. When I do a parlay which isnt very often, I tend to only do them as a hedge to a single bet (like I've got Mendes in current parlay as I have a single bet on Vasquez), and also tend to only do 4 out of 5 fold, trebles out of 4 fold, etc... parlays and always include at least one underdog who is at least +150 odds just so that I'm more likely to get something back if one of the picks goes wrong. For instance, I've got 3 out of 4 folds on Faber, Mendes, Jabouin and Sotiropolous currently as I'm very confident at least 3 of those 4 will win and if my Vazquez single bet wins all is not lost with this parlay as I'll still get something back if Faber, Jabouin and Sotiropolous win. However, it seems only the UK based bookies seem to offer those type of parlay options

hmm i see, yeah hopefully the lines arent too bad but i was thinking about adding daniel roberts and brad tavares to the parlay so it;d b a 5 man deal. all are favs, but tavares and roberts shouldnt be too bad. im just looking at this card and trying to find people that will win for sure. there are a lot of great plays on this card! as for wec, its always hard for me to bet on thoose because theres always tons of upsets. although i think chad mendez and faber will do just fine.

[Vaughany]

hmm i see, yeah hopefully the lines arent too bad but i was thinking about adding daniel roberts and brad tavares to the parlay so it;d b a 5 man deal. all are favs, but tavares and roberts shouldnt be too bad. im just looking at this card and trying to find people that will win for sure. there are a lot of great plays on this card! as for wec, its always hard for me to bet on thoose because theres always tons of upsets. although i think chad mendez and faber will do just fine.

Ye Baroni is always a good fade, I like Tavares a lot in tht one and also like Roberts. I personally also like Thiago Alves now that he's sorted his weight issues out against Howard as long as his odds arent ridiculous.

[Vrakas]

marcus could finish this fight early you never know at 155 he could be a better fighter.

[brooks85]

i dont think stephens is going to be parlay worthy, the line should be fine for a SU play but I have been way off before. I hope that line follows suit with all these recent -115/-115 lines, Im liking stephens big time in the matchup.

[snake11eyes]

It's kind of unfair to say that. He's got his reasons for this parlay and you haven't stated why you don't like the play. Seems like a pointless post. If anything Raiders could just be throwing these fights out there early to get opinions before the lines open. It's kind of pointless chasing away new people that are willing to discuss fights.

No disrespect to Raiders, but what I think bogbat is trying to say is, you can't come on and pick three heavy favorites and call them upcoming lock parlay. Then turn around and pick three more -500 favorites and call it ufc sure thing parlay. Now they might all win who knows, but in the long run you are almost certain to lose money if in fact you are betting real money on these types of parlays. I've been saying from the beginning that Grispi will beat Aldo. Nunes has a good shot at upsetting Brown. The pick I like the best is stephens and he won't be as big of a favorite as the other two.

[RaiderNation MMA]

No disrespect to Raiders, but what I think bogbat is trying to say is, you can't come on and pick three heavy favorites and call them upcoming lock parlay. Then turn around and pick three more -500 favorites and call it ufc sure thing parlay. Now they might all win who knows, but in the long run you are almost certain to lose money if in fact you are betting real money on these types of parlays. I've been saying from the beginning that Grispi will beat Aldo. Nunes has a good shot at upsetting Brown. The pick I like the best is stephens and he won't be as big of a favorite as the other two.

trust me, aldo isnt losing any time soon...but i guess we will find out. i understand parlays can be a pain in the butt, but how else are u going to make money of these three?? im certainly not the type of capper that just takes the underdog everytime.

just becasue james toney was a plus +900, that doesnt mean u go and bet on him......favorites are favorites for a reason and i guess all im saying is, these three are all on the same card, so why not a throw a little parlay on it?

but if you really think aldo will lose thats fine too.

lets just wait and see!

[RaiderNation MMA]

Ye Baroni is always a good fade, I like Tavares a lot in tht one and also like Roberts. I personally also like Thiago Alves now that he's sorted his weight issues out against Howard as long as his odds arent ridiculous.

agreed, baroni is done. and if u follow him on twitter youll see the dude is practically hurt everywhere..every other week hes going to physical and massage therapy.

[RaiderNation MMA]

and id never make a parlay lock thread if i didnt mean it!!! i would put my money where my mouth is!!!

[Vaughany]

trust me, aldo isnt losing any time soon...but i guess we will find out. i understand parlays can be a pain in the butt, but how else are u going to make money of these three?? im certainly not the type of capper that just takes the underdog everytime.

just becasue james toney was a plus +900, that doesnt mean u go and bet on him......favorites are favorites for a reason and i guess all im saying is, these three are all on the same card, so why not a throw a little parlay on it?

but if you really think aldo will lose thats fine too.

lets just wait and see!

I think Snake and the others aren't suggesting that you should always take the underdog just because of the better odds, but I imagine they're implying that it's perhaps sometimes better to not bet on the favourite (or opposing underdog) at all because there are too many variables and/or there isn't good enough value either way...i.e sometimes the best bet is to not bet! Although you are correct, the majority of time favourites are indeed favourites for a reason, the key here is that you have to consider what is that reason??! It's important to not fall into the 'absolute' perspective that a favourite is a favourite simply because he is a better fighter as it's clearly not as simple as that. Take Brock Lesnar for instance, why was he the favourite against Cain? I would say it was mostly due to the hype, size advantage, fact that he came back from the dead against Carwin and perceived wrestling advantage, when in fact all of these advantages were actually either disadvantages or just not credible. But I guess that is the beauty of betting on MMA - trying to judge when the bookies are off and ultimately being right more of the time than you are wrong as it's naive to think that you will always be right and ultimately the quickest way to losing a lot of money!

[Vaughany]

i dont think stephens is going to be parlay worthy, the line should be fine for a SU play but I have been way off before. I hope that line follows suit with all these recent -115/-115 lines, Im liking stephens big time in the matchup.

I agree Brooks, as I stated in my initial reply - I don't think Stephens is parlay worthy either and will only be putting a single bet on him at -120 or better. As you say, I wouldnt be surprised if Davis comes out at -120 and Lil Heathen -110 or vice-versa or something there abouts. All I know is Stephens hits hard and Davis cuts easy which should result in Lil Heathen picking up a lot of points from the judges due to damage!

[GoldenYAK]

your on if your serious!!

yeah i just wanted to know what u guys thought, i like to think im alright at putting together parlays, im sure these three will be all favorites, but there are the biggest mis matches i have ever seen.

im really loving this parlay and there is no reason why any of these three dudes will lose.

i understand parlays dont always hit and lots of people have been screwed by them, but im almost 99% sure this will hit on new years.

but i guess we will just have to wait and found out wont we!

apologies if you felt i wasted your time, just something to think about i suppose

Your on buddy. By the way I think Aldo,Stephens,Nunes is the winner.

[RaiderNation MMA]

Your on buddy. By the way I think Aldo,Stephens,Nunes is the winner.

lol mike brown doesnt lose. but i guess i will see you on jan. 2 mr golden yak. i can smell the 25 points now, easy money

[Poppa Catfish]

Mike Brown is not only not going to lose, he will flat out dominate Nunes.

[RaiderNation MMA]

Mike Brown is not only not going to lose, he will flat out dominate Nunes.

shhhhhh dont tell kayak. i need my free 25 points.