What is your strongest bet for UFC 120 tomorrow?

KCJMAC · 10-16-10, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by Boddhissatva

I'm leaning heavily toward Condit at +145....haven't pulled the trigger yet.

If you like Condit, I got him by decision at +425 on Bodog an hour or two ago. Very unlikely that Condit wins any other way against Hardy, who has never been knocked out and couldn't be submitted by GSP in 25 minutes.

Boddhissatva · 10-16-10, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

If you like Condit, I got him by decision at +425 on Bodog an hour or two ago. Very unlikely that Condit wins any other way against Hardy, who has never been knocked out and couldn't be submitted by GSP in 25 minutes.

that's a very good point. hopefully my book offers that prop.

KCJMAC · 10-16-10, 01:05 AM

I've got other suggestions as well in my picks post. Should have mentioned that in my initial post. Good luck.

JuicedUp · 10-16-10, 01:13 AM

Hardy -160 3x

lasker · 10-16-10, 01:14 AM

I don't know if it's the strongest play on the card, but the one I feel most certain about hitting is Fabio Maldonado -245. McSweeney is going to get destroyed.

Educ8d Degener8 · 10-16-10, 01:58 AM

For reasons stated in the 120 thread, Kongo vs Browne does not go to decision (-265).

I also like Wilks at his dog odds. Not sure why everyone is on Patrick there???

Originally posted by lasker

I don't know if it's the strongest play on the card, but the one I feel most certain about hitting is Fabio Maldonado -245. McSweeney is going to get destroyed.

I wasn't too impressed with Maldonado in the footage I saw.

It's no-play for me, but I surely won't be disappointed if McSweeney gets his head knocked off

BOL to you Lasker

Vaughany · 10-16-10, 02:26 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

If you like Condit, I got him by decision at +425 on Bodog an hour or two ago. Very unlikely that Condit wins any other way against Hardy, who has never been knocked out and couldn't be submitted by GSP in 25 minutes.

Yee decision is only way Condit wins IMO as well. Manage to get him at +650 tho on skybet

jacktheknife · 10-16-10, 03:03 AM

Can't see how anyone can think Bisping over Akiyama has better value then Maldonado over McSweeny. If you're not impressed by Fabio's near flawless boxing, be impressed by how poor a fighter McSweeny
is.

Poppa Catfish · 10-16-10, 03:58 AM

Winning a decision in England vs Hardy is going to be really, really hard (see Matt Hamill vs the Count). Then again it is really hard to say no to those odds, so I don't blame you.

I'm considering how much I want to play on +180 Hardy decision. That looks like the best value of the night.

rocky mattioli · 10-16-10, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by Poppa Catfish

Winning a decision in England vs Hardy is going to be really, really hard (see Matt Hamill vs the Count). Then again it is really hard to say no to those odds, so I don't blame you.

I'm considering how much I want to play on +180 Hardy decision. That looks like the best value of the night.

even disregarding the england aspect...condit has 24 finishes in 25 wins...
his losses are via sub or decision..
it seems logical to think condit inside the distance(via sub) or hardy via decision....

all of which means,expect just the opposite...

.......who expected leben to sub akiyama?.....

sundin4prez · 10-16-10, 07:25 AM

i like patrick

Educ8d Degener8 · 10-16-10, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by jacktheknife

Can't see how anyone can think Bisping over Akiyama has better value then Maldonado over McSweeny. If you're not impressed by Fabio's near flawless boxing, be impressed by how poor a fighter McSweeny
is.

A lot of it has to do with familiarity with a fighter, and the confidence in capping the fight. True, McSweeney is a dud and like I said, I'd like to see him get KO'd as he's a toolbag to boot; but, in the footage of Maldonado I did see, I guess I missed the flawless boxing you speak of -- Perhaps you could point us board members to some footage where he displays it? -245 is considerable juice to lay on an unfamiliar fighter. I think that's the major point here.

Another thing I didn't care for about Maldonado is that while he is 17-3, 2 of his last 4 opponents have records of 4-6 and 1-2 respectively. I'd expect a regarded Nog team prospect to be fighting higher caliber opponents 15 fights into his career. And the only notable fight I see on his rap sheet is against Cacareco -- and Maldonado lost that one in 27 seconds...

Juice is too high for me, but good luck to you regardless.

Vrakas · 10-16-10, 09:09 AM

hardy is my most secure pick

stefan084 · 10-16-10, 01:15 PM

Hardy--

Boddhissatva · 10-16-10, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

If you like Condit, I got him by decision at +425 on Bodog an hour or two ago. Very unlikely that Condit wins any other way against Hardy, who has never been knocked out and couldn't be submitted by GSP in 25 minutes.

I took your advice...

jacktheknife · 10-16-10, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8

A lot of it has to do with familiarity with a fighter, and the confidence in capping the fight. True, McSweeney is a dud and like I said, I'd like to see him get KO'd as he's a toolbag to boot; but, in the footage of Maldonado I did see, I guess I missed the flawless boxing you speak of -- Perhaps you could point us board members to some footage where he displays it? -245 is considerable juice to lay on an unfamiliar fighter. I think that's the major point here.

Another thing I didn't care for about Maldonado is that while he is 17-3, 2 of his last 4 opponents have records of 4-6 and 1-2 respectively. I'd expect a regarded Nog team prospect to be fighting higher caliber opponents 15 fights into his career. And the only notable fight I see on his rap sheet is against Cacareco -- and Maldonado lost that one in 27 seconds...

Juice is too high for me, but good luck to you regardless.

What I saw from the Louco and Miranda fights was a guy who could really range, roll and hold his ground. He can take a lot of stuff but nothing that even smelled threatening.

But damn, I wish I told you guys just how many light years I was staying away from those mains.

lasker · 10-16-10, 06:50 PM

Maldonado's professional boxing record is 22-0, with 21 coming by knockout. Add to that the fact that he's been training with team Nogueira and his opponent was a total mug who was known only for mediocre standup and nothing else (aside from acting like he's a lot better than he really is), and I just couldn't see Maldonado losing that fight. -245 seemed like a gift. Haven't seen the fight, so I don't know if it was as one-sided as I expected, but thankfully the right man won

Congrats to the Condit backers. I certainly didn't see that coming. Very crisp boxing, and even knockout power!

stefan084 · 10-17-10, 03:44 AM

who took condit by ko/tko and what were the odds i'd love to know?