Fissics MMA +3.5 Thread

Fissics · 10-09-10, 08:45 AM

Thinking about adding 1* Marloes Coenen +3.5 (+155)

Any thoughts?

Vaughany · 10-09-10, 09:59 AM

I personally think Coenen is the best dog on the card.

Eccocide · 10-09-10, 10:00 AM

I've went back and forth on the Kaufman/Coenen fight and can't come to a conclusion so I cant comment on a winner. But I'll say this about +3.5 for this fight. Its a 5 round championship fight so +3.5 isn't as solid as it looks IMO.

You are basically looking at 3 major scoring options of 50-45, 49-46 and 48-47.

If 1 judge scores it 49-46 or 4 rounds to 1 for Kaufman, you are in a tough hole to dig out of with +3.5, whereas in a 3 round fight, the person can lose on all 3 judges scorecards 29-28 and you still win. I just think theres too much variance in a 5-round fight for +3.5 to be worth it.

Fissics · 10-09-10, 10:24 AM

After re-watching some of their fights, I think Coenen fighting at 135 would make this a pretty live bet. She would have to pick up 2 rounds for the +3.5 to cover, and I think she should be able to pull it off with her explosiveness.

I went ahead and placed one unit on it. Thanks for the input guys.

Added:
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Noons II
1* Marloes Coenen +3.5 (+155)

lasker · 10-09-10, 10:32 AM

Personally I think there's more value in Coenen straight up at +250. I think if she wins any round, it's by winning the fight via submission. Otherwise I think Kaufman will win the rounds with her superior striking. Just my two cents... good luck!

Vaughany · 10-09-10, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by lasker

Personally I think there's more value in Coenen straight up at +250. I think if she wins any round, it's by winning the fight via submission. Otherwise I think Kaufman will win the rounds with her superior striking. Just my two cents... good luck!

Yee I would only do Coenen straight up at +250 as well.

Fissics · 10-09-10, 10:38 AM

I think she will be able to gain top control a few times which would help her get some points. Unfortunately sub attempts don't seem to be worth much, but who knows what crazy crap judges will pull tonight.

I do understand that I lose value not taking the straight up ML, but +155 with a bit of extra security aint too bad.

Fissics · 10-11-10, 10:25 AM

Well, not a great start.

1-2

-8.94u

Fissics · 10-16-10, 03:21 PM

UFC 120 Bisping vs Akiyama
5* Yoshihiro Akiyama +3½ (-130)
5* Carlos Condit +3½ (-155)