chris lytle vs matt serra

Vaughany · 09-13-10, 04:53 PM

I'll copy and paste what I just said in Snakeeyes' thread!....

"Id be massively shocked if Serra subbed Lytle, out of the 17 losses that Lytle has on his record, none of them were by submission, only one by TKO/KO (Thiago Alves) and all the rest were decision losses (15). Add to that the fact that Serra's BJJ doesnt adapt well to MMA because he is so small and not explosive meaning he cant latch on triangles - he only has one win by submission in his UFC career against Kelly Dullanty way back in 2002. Furthermore, Id be surprised if this fight even goes to the ground, I think it will be a stand-up fight and either be an absolute war or the complete opposite with a lot of hugging and jostling for position against the cage. Im going to be making a big play on this going to decision if I can get it at Evens or better."

To add to what I said in Snakeyes' thread, although Serra has beaten Lytle before that was back in 2006 and it was very close - a split decision. Lytle has improved since then and is on a good run after beating Burns, Foster and Matt Brown. I think the fact that he constantly fights like every 2 months while Serra has rather long gaps between his fights has also contributed to favourable odds for Lytle. Nonetheless, I dont see value in Lytle and if I was going to bet on one of them it would be Serra at +115 as it is pretty much a 50/50 toss up and Serra is one of my top 3 favourite fighters! However, I will probably resist and just bet big on it going to decision. They should cancel eachother out with regards to BJJ, neither have wrestling advantage, and both have great chins so dont foresee a TKO or KO.

snake11eyes · 09-13-10, 05:01 PM

This is the way I see this fight. There first fight was 4 yrs ago with Serra taking the split decision. I actually scored the fight for Lytle 29-28. Fast forward 4yrs both are 36 yrs old, but Lytle seems like the younger fighter to me. Maybe it's because he has fought 10 times since the first fight while Serra has only fought four. Lytle has amassed a 7-3 record in this time against decent competition. Serra record since is 2-2. He got lucky against gsp (This is mma and anything happens, but that's 1 out of 100 maybe higher) or he could easily be 1-3 with his only win against that bum Trigg. Now we are talking about gsp so maybe you throw those two fights out leaving him 1-1. In the end I do not think Serra will be able to get this fight to the ground where he needs it to be to grind out a decision or try for a submission. Lytle with better standup will keep the fight standing on his way to a decision victory. I do feel there is a small chance for a Lytle tko.

snake11eyes · 09-13-10, 05:04 PM

Damn Vaughany while I was typing you posted before me stealing some of my lines. lol

Vaughany · 09-13-10, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

Damn Vaughany while I was typing you posted before me stealing some of my lines. lol

haha I meant to say what u said about Lytle seeming like a younger fighter as well but forgot!

Straight Cash · 09-13-10, 06:01 PM

I like Serra by decision here.

Kaladarus · 09-13-10, 06:13 PM

It should be a close fight, but Serra as a dog is a good play in my opinion. I don't see this ending in a submission since both guys have good ground games. Also Serra has good takedown defense and is the stronger fighter. Serra can potentially get a takedown or rock Lytle on the feet. If either of these happen the judges can give Serra the round. Lytle is unlikely to do either of these to Serra. If Lytle can keep distance and outstrike Serra he can take a decision, but if Serra comes in with a good strategy he can win this fight in more ways than Lytle can.

Shagdogy · 09-13-10, 08:24 PM

I think Serra can win this fight just based on positioning. He looked good vs. Hughes (I thought he won) and Trigg. I didn't put much stock in the Hughes fight, but Hughes has since turned it on and may have been tougher in that fight than I originally thought. All together, I like Serra here by decision... but I'm with Vaughany, fight goes to decision is the best bet if the odds are decent.

sundin4prez · 09-13-10, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Straight Cash

I like Serra by decision here.

100%.....

BIGDAY · 09-13-10, 09:11 PM

Careful with Serra guys, I personaly think that Lytle is well rounded enough and has enough takedown skill to take this to the ground and win a very uneventful dec, IMO. Look for Lytle to do what Hughes did a couple fights ago. Very uneventful, but unfortunatly a very effective way to beat Serra IMO.
Best of luck everyone!

LearningTree · 09-14-10, 01:04 AM

Pretty close stylistically and it's not like Serra is a big dog...

cooldavid3169 · 09-14-10, 11:47 AM

Originally posted by snake11eyes

This is the way I see this fight. There first fight was 4 yrs ago with Serra taking the split decision. I actually scored the fight for Lytle 29-28. Fast forward 4yrs both are 36 yrs old, but Lytle seems like the younger fighter to me. Maybe it's because he has fought 10 times since the first fight while Serra has only fought four. Lytle has amassed a 7-3 record in this time against decent competition. Serra record since is 2-2. He got lucky against gsp (This is mma and anything happens, but that's 1 out of 100 maybe higher) or he could easily be 1-3 with his only win against that bum Trigg. Now we are talking about gsp so maybe you throw those two fights out leaving him 1-1. In the end I do not think Serra will be able to get this fight to the ground where he needs it to be to grind out a decision or try for a submission. Lytle with better standup will keep the fight standing on his way to a decision victory. I do feel there is a small chance for a Lytle tko.

What fight were you watching that fights is top 3 most boring fights in the history of the UFC. Chris Lytle had no offense the entire fight. Granted Serra didnt do much more but Lytle alsmot got cut from the UFC for his performance.

koscheckbaby · 09-14-10, 07:00 PM

Kind of like a stoppage here either way with the odds favoring this to go to decision. Lytle's wild brawling is not gonna do him any favors potentially against Serra's heavy hands. Remember, Kevin Burns almost finished him standing and Foster caught him good during the brief time they stood. Lytle will also be winging bombs, which also gives him a shot of KO'ing Serra, who doesn't have a great chin.

I'm assuming this will stay standing and Serra won't be a complete pussy this time around with all the fence hugging. He can afford to fight a little bit this time with no title shot on the line.

snake11eyes · 09-14-10, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by cooldavid3169

What fight were you watching that fights is top 3 most boring fights in the history of the UFC. Chris Lytle had no offense the entire fight. Granted Serra didnt do much more but Lytle alsmot got cut from the UFC for his performance.

Where in my post did I say anything about the fight being exciting. Maybe I'm missing something here.

Vaughany · 09-15-10, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

Kind of like a stoppage here either way with the odds favoring this to go to decision. Lytle's wild brawling is not gonna do him any favors potentially against Serra's heavy hands. Remember, Kevin Burns almost finished him standing and Foster caught him good during the brief time they stood. Lytle will also be winging bombs, which also gives him a shot of KO'ing Serra, who doesn't have a great chin.

I'm assuming this will stay standing and Serra won't be a complete pussy this time around with all the fence hugging. He can afford to fight a little bit this time with no title shot on the line.

What makes u think Serra doesn't have a great chin? He only has one loss by KO and that was the freakish spinning back fist from Shonie Carter. The GSP loss was from brutal knees to the body.