KCJMAC's MMA picks

illmatick · 08-27-10, 10:15 AM

MIRANDA DEC / MAYNARD DEC / SALTER .5

really like the return on this, considering the same parlay after the weigh-ins

also like the fastest tko prop with Winner and Ossip

good luck

snake11eyes · 08-27-10, 10:31 AM

Like your picks except for Ruediger, just dont see that loser winning he has no heart. Also dont miss the weigh-ins live 4pm on spike tv.

KCJMAC · 08-27-10, 01:11 PM

Agreed on Ruediger, Snake. I picked that up right when the line went up so I could arbitrage it out later. I probably should have mentioned that or taken it out.

I'll be at the weigh-ins

snake11eyes · 08-27-10, 01:48 PM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

I'll be at the weigh-ins

Nice that should be awesome, I'll have to settle for t.v. Let us know if you see anything live that the cameras might not catch.

KCJMAC · 08-27-10, 07:52 PM

You could probably see better on tv than we could. Got stuck in traffic so we were pretty far up on the side.

One thing that was interesting: While they were playing the final intro clip, BJ came out from behind the curtain and was talking to fans and hopping around a little bit for several minutes. That was a nice change from some weigh-ins I've seen where he seemed lethargic or bored.

Florian had the biggest crowd ovation overall, BJ second biggest. Ruediger got booed A LOT, and Edgar caught quite a few boos as well.

lasker · 08-27-10, 08:04 PM

Why would Edgar get booed? He's a classy guy. Oh well. Have fun over there, and GL!

KCJMAC · 08-27-10, 08:11 PM

I wondered about that as well. Once he got on the scales, the cheering picked up and got louder than the boos.

Not sure if the boos were because people disagreed with the decision that won him the belt, or there were a lot of Penn supporters in attendance, or maybe it was some kind of anti-NY/New Jersey thing from the Boston fans. Hard to say, but it was interesting.

phillybadboy · 08-27-10, 10:46 PM

Good luck dude

stefan084 · 08-27-10, 11:15 PM

edgar does seem like a good guy but i really think he's gonna get beat convincingly this time

clarkd32 · 08-27-10, 11:31 PM

gl... hope you hit one of your big plays. diaz in 3rd looks really good imo at those odds.

KCJMAC · 08-31-10, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

UFC 118

Straight / Prop (Pick & Line & Units):
OSIPCZAK -125 5.0 (-5)
LENTZ +115 2.5 (+2.875)
FLORIAN -140 3.5 (-3.5)
FLORIAN -160 2.5 (-2.5)
PENN -310 7.75 (-7.75)
DIAZ -190 3.8 (+2)
MAIA -180 4.5 (+3)
SALTER +225 4.0 (-4)
RUEDIGER +325 .5 (-.5)
MAYNARD DEC +256 1.0 (+2.56)
FLORIAN IN 3RD +1110 .5 (-.5)
FOTN LAUZON +1000 .5 (-.5)
QUICK TKO TONEY +900 .5 (-.5)
QUICK TKO OSIPCZAK +1400 .5 (-.5)
QUICK TKO WINNER +1100 .5 (-.5)
QUICK SUB LAUZON +1500 .5 (+7.5)
DIAZ IN 3RD +970 .5 (+4.85)

Risk 38.55 units to win 71.02 units (and return 38.55 units)

Parlay (Pick & Units)
OSIPCZAK / LENTZ / DIAZ / FLORIAN / PENN 5.0 (-5)
PENN / MAIA / FLORIAN / DIAZ / OSIPCZAK 1.5 (-1.5)
PENN / MAIA / FLORIAN / DIAZ 2.5 (-2.5)
PENN TO DEC / MAIA / LENTZ / OSIPCZAK 1.5 (-1.5)
MIRANDA DEC / MAYNARD DEC / SALTER .5 (-.5)
OSIPCZAK / LAUZON / DIAZ / FLORIAN 1.5 (-1.5)
PETTIS / CAVALCANTE / OSIPCZAK / FLORIAN .5 (-.5)
EDGAR DEC / MAYNARD DEC .5 (+8.95)
MAYNARD DEC / DIAZ IN 3RD .33 (+10.37)
EDGAR DEC / FLORIAN DEC / DAVIS DEC .5 (-.5)
PENN / FLORIAN / DIAZ ALL GO TO DEC 1.0 (-1)
PENN IN 5TH / FLORIAN IN 3RD / DIAZ IN 3RD .25 (-.25)

Risk 15.58 units to win 633 units (and return 15.58 units)

This event was a real rollercoaster. Lost all of my biggest bets on individuals (almost 19 units on Oscipzak, Florian, and Penn alone.) Won several props & parlays.

Straight & Props:
Risk 38.55 units to win 71.02 units (and return 38.55 units)
Result: -2.875 units
Parlays:
Risk 15.58 units to win 633 units (and return 15.58 units)
Result: +9.03 units

Total for UFC 118: +6.155 units

KCJMAC · 09-15-10, 10:41 AM

UFN 22
Straight / Prop (Pick & Line & Units):
PALHARES +190 2.5
J. MILLER BY DEC +225 1.0
TIBAU WIN IN 3RD RD +2850 .33
ESCUDERO -180 2.0
PEARSON -250 5.0
PEARSON BY DEC +230 1.0
PEARSON WIN IN 3RD +775 .5
C. MILLER WIN IN 3RD +1650 .5
C. MILLER INSIDE DIST +350 1.0
BRANCH +135 2.0
Risk 15.88 units to win 4023.61 units (and return 15.88 units)

Parlay (Pick & Units)
MARQUARDT / J. MILLER / PEARSON +230 2.0
TIBAU / C. MILLER / PALHARES +1951 .75
MARQUARDT / PEARSON / ESCUDERO ALL BY DEC +3216 .5
Risk 3.25 units to win 3531.25 units (and return 3.25 units)

I think I have a good read on the Pearson / C. Miller fight, but we'll see. This was a tough card for me to cap, so I included several long shots for fun.

KCJMAC · 09-15-10, 10:58 PM

Originally posted by kcjmac

ufn 22
straight / prop (pick & line & units):
palhares +190 2.5 loss (-2.5)
j. Miller by dec +225 1.0 win (+2.25)
tibau win in 3rd rd +2850 .33 loss (-.33)
escudero -180 2.0 loss (-2.0)
pearson -250 5.0 loss (-5.0)
pearson by dec +230 1.0 loss (-1.0)
pearson win in 3rd +775 .5 loss (-.5)
c. Miller win in 3rd +1650 .5 loss (-.5)
c. Miller inside dist +350 1.0 win (+3.5)
branch +135 2.0 win (+2.7)
risk 15.88 units to win 40.23 units (and return 15.88 units) total: -3.38

parlay (pick & units)
marquardt / j. Miller / pearson +230 2.0
tibau / c. Miller / palhares +1951 .75
marquardt / pearson / escudero all by dec +3216 .5
risk 3.25 units to win 35.31 units (and return 3.25 units) total: -3.25

TOTAL FOR UFN 22: -6.63 units

Vaughany · 09-16-10, 02:30 AM

Unlucky with Pearson dude...never expected that.

KCJMAC · 09-30-10, 09:38 AM

Was too lazy to post UFC 119 wagers. Had 35 or so bets and ended up finishing several units ahead thanks to Mir, Lytle, Bader, Guillard, and McCorkle. Watched the fights at Emeril Lagasse's Stadium at the Palazzo in Las Vegas. Good food, tvs everywhere including a 9 foot by 16 foot one, and most importantly a sports book in the restaurant. Highly recommend it to anyone in town.

WEC 51
4 units on Hominick at -165 on BM
2 units on Valencia at +400 on 5D
3 units on Zhang at -125 on 5D
1 unit on Gamburyan at +490 on 5D
.5 units on Cerrone / Varner FOTN at +400 on BM
1 unit on Cerrone / Varner to decison at +120 on 5D
1 unit on Cerrone by decison at +200 on 5D

BELLATOR 31
.5 units on Lozano at +195 on BM
9 units on Fujii at -355 on BM

Shoul be a good night of fights. Good luck, all.

KCJMAC · 09-30-10, 11:08 PM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

4 units on Hominick at -165 on BM = +2.5
2 units on Valencia at +400 on 5D = -2
3 units on Zhang at -125 on 5D = +2.5
1 unit on Gamburyan at +490 on 5D = -1
.5 units on Cerrone / Varner FOTN at +400 on BM = +2
1 unit on Cerrone / Varner to decison at +120 on 5D = +1.2
1 unit on Cerrone by decison at +200 on 5D = +1

BELLATOR 31
.5 units on Lozano at +195 on BM = +1
9 units on Fujii at -355 on BM = +2.5

Total = +9.7 units

JuicedUp · 09-30-10, 11:28 PM

Nice work KC.

Vaughany · 10-01-10, 06:35 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

Total = +9.7 units

Awesome stuff bro!

KCJMAC · 10-09-10, 11:02 AM

Strikeforce: Diaz v Noons II

Straight / Prop:
5 units on Diaz at -200 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Coenen at +270 on Bookmaker
3 units on Thomson at -150 on Bookmaker
3 units on Galvao at +240 on Bookmaker

Parlay:
1.5 units on Thomson / Galvao / Diaz at +642 on 5 Dimes
.4 units on Diaz inside / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside at +2595 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Diaz by sub / Thomson to dec / Coenen inside at +3973 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Diaz by sub / Thomson to dec / Kaufman by dec at +1940 on 5 Dimes
.25 units on Diaz by sub / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside / Woodley at +7990 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Not Diaz & Noons to dec / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside at +1237 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Not Diaz & Noons to dec / Thomson by dec / Kaufman by dec / Woodley at +827 on 5 Dimes
.25 units on Noons inside / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside at +7067 on 5 Dimes
.2 units on Diaz inside / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside / Galvao at +8525 on 5 Dimes
.1 units on Diaz in 5th rd / Thomson by dec / Coenen at +8698 on 5 Dimes

lasker · 10-09-10, 02:50 PM

I have a bunch of parlays going too. I like your plays, BOL

KCJMAC · 10-10-10, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

Strikeforce: Diaz v Noons II

Straight / Prop:
5 units on Diaz at -200 on 5 Dimes = +2.5 units
1 unit on Coenen at +270 on Bookmaker = +2.7 units
3 units on Thomson at -150 on Bookmaker = +2 units
3 units on Galvao at +240 on Bookmaker = - 3 units

Parlay:
1.5 units on Thomson / Galvao / Diaz at +642 on 5 Dimes
.4 units on Diaz inside / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside at +2595 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Diaz by sub / Thomson to dec / Coenen inside at +3973 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Diaz by sub / Thomson to dec / Kaufman by dec at +1940 on 5 Dimes
.25 units on Diaz by sub / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside / Woodley at +7990 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Not Diaz & Noons to dec / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside at +1237 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Not Diaz & Noons to dec / Thomson by dec / Kaufman by dec / Woodley at +827 on 5 Dimes
.25 units on Noons inside / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside at +7067 on 5 Dimes
.2 units on Diaz inside / Thomson by dec / Coenen inside / Galvao at +8525 on 5 Dimes
.1 units on Diaz in 5th rd / Thomson by dec / Coenen at +8698 on 5 Dimes

Total Straight/Prop = +4.2 units
Total Parlay = - 4.7 units
Total = -.5 units

I feel pretty good about these wagers even though the night was a slight loser overall. If either Noons or Diaz finishes that fight, I cash multiple parlays and win between 20 to 60 units. Maybe next time.

KCJMAC · 10-16-10, 12:10 AM

UFC 120

Put a lot of work into this card. 61 total wagers, but I'm too tired to transcribe them all from my spreadsheet. Here are the main ones:

Straight / Prop:
7.5 units on Aikiyama at +200 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Aikiyama/Bisping to decision at +405 on Bookmaker
.5 unit on Aikiyama quickest KO at +2500 on Bookmaker
2.5 units on Pyle at +440 on Bookmaker
4.25 units on NOT Pyle / Hathaway to decision at -170 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Pyle by sub at +560 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Hathaway in 3rd at +700 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Pyle in 3rd at +1950 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Pyle for quickest sub at +800 on Bookmaker
7.75 units on Hardy at -155 on Bodog
1 unit on Hardy by decision at +125 on Bodog
2 units on Condit by decision at +425 on Bodog
4.5 units on Hardy/Condit to decision at -180 on 5 Dimes
2.5 units on Broughton at +145 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Broughton quickest KO at +800 on Bookmaker
.5 units on Fisher / Warburton FOTN at +700 on Bookmaker
4.27 units on Patrick at -170 on Bookmaker
2.5 units on McSweeney at +200 on 5 Dimes
1.85 units on NOT Kongo/Browne to decision at -185 on 5 Dimes

Parlay:
5 units on Aikiyama / Hardy at +382 on Bodog
1 unit on Aikiyama / Pyle at +1202 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Aikiyama by dec / Condit by dec at +1718 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Aikiyama inside / Pyle inside at +2755 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Aikiyama / Hardy / Pyle & Hathaway not to decision / Nick Diaz at +1003 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Bisping by dec / Hardy by dec / Pyle & Hathaway not to decision at +882 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Broughton / McSweeney / Hathaway all by TKO at +1627 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Pyle by sub / Hardy by dec / McSweeney at +4292 on 5 Dimes

Overall I feel like the strongest plays in no particular order are the following:
1) Aikiyama (very underrated at +200, which is why you can't get him at that price now)
2) Pyle by sub
3) Hathaway by TKO
4) Pyle / Hathaway will not go to decision, because Pyle doesn't go to decision. This fact adds value to both options above.
5) Opposite is true for Hardy / Condit. Very unlikely that either guy will finish the other, so decision props are best.
6) Was not impressed by Vincius de Quieroz (except for his name) or the awful records of his opponents, so I think Broughton is a very live dog here.
7) McSweeney at +200, fighting to stay in the UFC at Light Heavyweight has some value.

Good luck, all.

lasker · 10-16-10, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

1 unit on Aikiyama/Bisping to decision at +405 on Bookmaker

When did you get this at +405?! Crazy line. The highest I ever saw it was +130, weeks ago.

KCJMAC · 10-18-10, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by KCJMAC

UFC 120

Straight / Prop:
7.5 units on Aikiyama at +200 on 5 Dimes = -7.5
1 unit on Aikiyama/Bisping to decision at +405 on Bookmaker = +4
.5 unit on Aikiyama quickest KO at +2500 on Bookmaker = -.5
2.5 units on Pyle at +440 on Bookmaker = +11
4.25 units on NOT Pyle / Hathaway to decision at -170 on 5 Dimes -4.25
1 unit on Pyle by sub at +560 on 5 Dimes = -1
1 unit on Hathaway in 3rd at +700 on 5 Dimes = -1
1 unit on Pyle in 3rd at +1950 on 5 Dimes = -1
.5 units on Pyle for quickest sub at +800 on Bookmaker = -.5
7.75 units on Hardy at -155 on Bodog =-7.75
1 unit on Hardy by decision at +125 on Bodog = -1
2 units on Condit by decision at +425 on Bodog =-2
4.5 units on Hardy/Condit to decision at -180 on 5 Dimes =-4.5
2.5 units on Broughton at +145 on 5 Dimes = +3.6
.5 units on Broughton quickest KO at +800 on Bookmaker = -.5
.5 units on Fisher / Warburton FOTN at +700 on Bookmaker = -.5
4.27 units on Patrick at -170 on Bookmaker = +2.5
2.5 units on McSweeney at +200 on 5 Dimes = -2.5
1.85 units on NOT Kongo/Browne to decision at -185 on 5 Dimes =-1.85

Total = -15.25

Parlay:
5 units on Aikiyama / Hardy at +382 on Bodog
1 unit on Aikiyama / Pyle at +1202 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Aikiyama by dec / Condit by dec at +1718 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Aikiyama inside / Pyle inside at +2755 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Aikiyama / Hardy / Pyle & Hathaway not to decision / Nick Diaz at +1003 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Bisping by dec / Hardy by dec / Pyle & Hathaway not to decision at +882 on 5 Dimes
1 unit on Broughton / McSweeney / Hathaway all by TKO at +1627 on 5 Dimes
.5 units on Pyle by sub / Hardy by dec / McSweeney at +4292 on 5 Dimes

Total = -10.5

-25.75 for the event. In retrospect I overbet Akiyama and Hardy. Congrats to all who had positive nights.

KCJMAC · 10-23-10, 07:21 PM

UFC 121

Straight / Prop:
8 units on Hamill at -160
2 units on Ortiz by dec at +300
4 units on Cote at -160
4.25 units on Madsen at -170
4.25 units on Stout at -170
3.3 units on Roberts at -135
4.3 units on Gonzaga at -175
1 unit on Schaub in 3rd at +2000
.5 units on Schaub by dec at +1000
2.6 units on Thiago at -105
5.7 units on Shields at -207
1 units on Shields in rd 1 +525
1 units on Shields by sub +375
1 unit on Shields by TKO +700
1 unit on Shields fastest sub +700
.5 units on Kampman in 3rd rd +2470
2.5 units on Velasquez +150
.5 units on Lesnar FOTN +325
.5 units on Stout FOTN +350
.5 units on Sanchez FOTN +450

Parlay:
1.5 units on Velasquez inside / Shields / Cote / Stout +1332
1 unit on Lesnar / Shields / Hamill / Cote +542
2 units on Lesnar not to rd 5 / Shields / Sanchez starts rd 3 / Hamill to dec / not Gonzaga by dec +322
1 unit on Shields inside / Lesnar TKO / Sanchez to dec / Hamill to dec +2242
1 unit on Lesnar TKO / Shields / Madsen +514
1 unit on Shields inside / Cain TKO / Sanchez to dec / Hamill to dec / Gonzaga inside +5876
.75 units on Lesnar inside / Shields / Sanchez to dec / Ortiz by dec / Madsen +2499
.75 units on Lesnar inside / Shields / Sanchez over 2.5 / Ortiz over 2.5 / Schaub TKO / Madsen +2342
5 units on Lesnar / Shields / Madsen +258
5 units on Shields / Madsen +112