New blog post:
Background:
Nate Diaz is 12-5-0 overall, with 8 finishes by submission, and 3 by TKO. He is 7-3 in the UFC, with losses to Gray Maynard, Joe Stevenson, and Clay Guida, all by decision. He currently fights out of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, and is unranked in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.
Marcus Davis is 17-6 overall, with 8 finishes by submission, and 6 by TKO. He is 9-3 in the UFC, losing to Mike Swick and Dan Hardy via decision, and to Ben Saunders by TKO. He currently fights out of Team Sityodtong, and is unranked in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.
Diaz and Davis have no recent common opponents, since this is only the second fight for Diaz at Welterweight after moving up from Lightweight with a recent win over Rory Markham.
Skills:
Diaz is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt and an improving striker who is comfortable on the ground or on his feet, although he is much more likely to finish a fight from the ground.
Davis is primarily a boxer, with 20 professional fights before moving to MMA. .
Matchup:
While Diaz should work to take the fight to the ground as soon as possible due to his significant advantage there, he may instead opt to box with Davis, relying on his 6 inch reach advantage and strong chin to stay out of danger. Although takedowns are not one of Diaz's strengths, I do expect this fight to end up on the ground at some point.
Davis will attempt to keep the fight standing where he has at least a small advantage in power. On the ground he will find his hands full with Diaz and his constant submission attempts.
Lines:
Prediction:
I expect an exciting fight between these two Welterweights. Diaz has 2 Submission of the night awards and 3 Fight of the Night awards in 10 UFC contests, while Davis has 2 Fight of the night awards, 1 Submission of the Night award, and 1 Knockout of the Night award in 12 UFC contests.
Diaz can win this fight by submission, TKO, or decision, although his style is not well-suited to grinding out decisions. Davis is unlikely to submit Diaz, although he could win by TKO, or more likely by decision.
I expect Davis to win the first round due to superior boxing, but as the fight continues I expect the fight to move to the ground and Diaz to secure a submission.
Wager(s):
I believe Diaz wins this fight better than three-quarters of the time, so I like him at the current price of -199. The remainder of the time I expect Davis to win by decision.
A prop bet on this bout being the Fight of the Night may be an option, given the track record of the combatants. Another option is Davis by decision, currently at +380 on 5 Dimes.
A parlay with Diaz should also be worthwhile due to potentially favorable odds and the high likelihood that he will win the fight.
2 units on Diaz to win 1 unit.
Background:
Nate Diaz is 12-5-0 overall, with 8 finishes by submission, and 3 by TKO. He is 7-3 in the UFC, with losses to Gray Maynard, Joe Stevenson, and Clay Guida, all by decision. He currently fights out of Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu, and is unranked in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.
Marcus Davis is 17-6 overall, with 8 finishes by submission, and 6 by TKO. He is 9-3 in the UFC, losing to Mike Swick and Dan Hardy via decision, and to Ben Saunders by TKO. He currently fights out of Team Sityodtong, and is unranked in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.
Diaz and Davis have no recent common opponents, since this is only the second fight for Diaz at Welterweight after moving up from Lightweight with a recent win over Rory Markham.
Skills:
Diaz is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu brown belt and an improving striker who is comfortable on the ground or on his feet, although he is much more likely to finish a fight from the ground.
Davis is primarily a boxer, with 20 professional fights before moving to MMA. .
Matchup:
While Diaz should work to take the fight to the ground as soon as possible due to his significant advantage there, he may instead opt to box with Davis, relying on his 6 inch reach advantage and strong chin to stay out of danger. Although takedowns are not one of Diaz's strengths, I do expect this fight to end up on the ground at some point.
Davis will attempt to keep the fight standing where he has at least a small advantage in power. On the ground he will find his hands full with Diaz and his constant submission attempts.
Lines:
Prediction:
I expect an exciting fight between these two Welterweights. Diaz has 2 Submission of the night awards and 3 Fight of the Night awards in 10 UFC contests, while Davis has 2 Fight of the night awards, 1 Submission of the Night award, and 1 Knockout of the Night award in 12 UFC contests.
Diaz can win this fight by submission, TKO, or decision, although his style is not well-suited to grinding out decisions. Davis is unlikely to submit Diaz, although he could win by TKO, or more likely by decision.
I expect Davis to win the first round due to superior boxing, but as the fight continues I expect the fight to move to the ground and Diaz to secure a submission.
Wager(s):
I believe Diaz wins this fight better than three-quarters of the time, so I like him at the current price of -199. The remainder of the time I expect Davis to win by decision.
A prop bet on this bout being the Fight of the Night may be an option, given the track record of the combatants. Another option is Davis by decision, currently at +380 on 5 Dimes.
A parlay with Diaz should also be worthwhile due to potentially favorable odds and the high likelihood that he will win the fight.
2 units on Diaz to win 1 unit.
The only play that I might consider is Davis/Diaz goes 3 round distance +115 or the prop you mentioned, Davis wins by 3 round decision (though it is now down to +370).