Penn wins inside distance +106
Penn wins by 5 round decision +198
Penn wins by 5 round decision +198
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Edgar wins by 5 round decision +430
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i like itOriginally posted by GoldRush7
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this guy is sharp. Pay attention boys.Originally posted by laskerEdgar wins by 5 round decision +430
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not this time...Comment -
Why not just play Penn to win? Better value.Originally posted by GoldRush7Comment -
its -320, I'm not exactly a genius when it comes to math, but how would that be better value?Comment -
ha yee do explain?!Originally posted by GoldRush7
What is Penn by sub prop?Comment -
good question, 5dimes does not have that prop listed for me thoughComment -
squallsquall is absolutely correct, you'd get better value if you just bet Penn to win. If you're betting both Penn by decision and Penn by stoppage, you're getting worse value.
Let's say that Penn wins 80% of the time (this is overly generous, in my opinion, but you're confident Penn will win). Of those 80%, let's say around 60% are inside the distance and 40% are by decision.
You bet $100 on Penn to win @-320 (although he's -310 at Bookmaker).
EV: 31.25 x 0.8 + (-100) x 0.2 = 25 -20 = $5... good, +EV.
Now let's say you bet $50 on Penn to win inside the distance and $50 on Penn to win by decision. First, Penn to win by stoppage @+106:
EV: (53 x 0.8 x 0.6) - (50 x {1 - 0.8 x 0.6}) = 25.44 - 26 = -$0.56... actually negative EV
Now Penn to win by decision @+198:
EV: (99 x 0.8 x 0.4) - (50 x {1 - 0.8 x 0.4}) = 31.68 - 34 = -$2.32... even worse.
And don't forget that if you win one of those two bets, you automatically lose the other. So even if one is giving better EV than Penn to win straight up, you have to subtract the amount you bet on the other prop.
Of course, you could play around with the percentages a bit, but with any reasonable estimate the much better value is with Penn to win, even at -320 (although if you have Bookmaker get him at -310, of course).Comment -
I think if Penn does win it will be by sub more than 60% of the time tho which would mean Id prefer to do a prop bet on him winning by sub at +200 or better. Edgar's never been finished, dont think he's ever been rocked even, and if Penn does get him to the ground it will probly end up similar to the Florian and Joe Daddy fight. Nontheless, im gonna be hoping for Edgar by decision!Originally posted by laskerComment -
More than 60% of Penn's wins vs Edgar would come via submisison?!
Penn has won 40% of his 15 wins via submission. Of his UFC wins, it's 36%.
Edgar, who has never been submitted, is a purple belt under Ricardo Almeida and trains regularly with the likes of Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida. Certainly Penn can submit him if it goes to the ground (especially if Penn gets top position or his back), but I would suggest around 33% (or less) of Penn's wins would come via submission, not more than 60%. But good luck to you if you take that prop!
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Ye but I mean 60% in this particular fight, clearly its not a guarantee but I've just got a bad feeling its gonna end up being a 3rd or 4th round submission similar to the Stephenson and Florian fights. I'll only be going for it if its better odds than BJ by TKO/KO and decent value in relation to BJ by decision....have to wait and see!Originally posted by laskerMore than 60% of Penn's wins vs Edgar would come via submisison?!
Penn has won 40% of his 15 wins via submission. Of his UFC wins, it's 36%.
Edgar, who has never been submitted, is a purple belt under Ricardo Almeida and trains regularly with the likes of Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida. Certainly Penn can submit him if it goes to the ground (especially if Penn gets top position or his back), but I would suggest around 33% (or less) of Penn's wins would come via submission, not more than 60%. But good luck to you if you take that prop!Comment -
When capping fights, I try to only think about long-term frequency. Unless you have a very trustworthy "gut feeling," it can be dangerous to cap that way! But of course, you're right that it's only one fight, and your prediction may very well come true.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
Yep I agree, and I have lost before due to going with my gut feeling such as bettin on Mir against LEsnar (2nd fight), but thn on the flipside I didnt go with my gut feeling tht Velasquez would destroy Nog - hesitated and didnt put anything on the fight fight which has always left a sour taste in my mouth!Originally posted by lasker
At the end of the day, I'm with you and most confident that Edgar will get another decision so will probly just stick with tht and have BJ in a couple of parlays as back up!Comment -
Lasker- like I said before math isn't my specialty and all these numbers really just confuse me even more. I'm looking at it in much simpler light....Originally posted by lasker
Example: If I were to put $100 on both Penn by decision and Penn to win inside distance, the scenario would go as follows:
1. Penn wins by decision I would net $98
2. Penn wins inside distance I would net $6
3. Penn loses I would lose $200
With this logic in mind, if I were to lay the 320 it would take in order for me to make $100 I would lose $320, which is more than the original $200 that I had in mind of laying.
Obviously the scenario I would be hoping for is that penn wins by decision, but if shit happens again and he loses I wouldn't be losing as much as if I were to lay down the large juice on Penn just to win.Comment -
That's not a fair example, because if you're laying $320 to win $100 one way, then, to compare, you'd have to see how much you're laying with the prop bets in order to net $100. The way you have it set up in your example, a win would mean you'd be netting $100 one way (Penn to win straight up) and either $98 or only $6 the other way (by betting both props).
For clarity, let's just assume that Penn wins -- but we don't know whether it's by stoppage or decision. You'd have to lay more by betting the props in order to guarantee $100 profit:
In order to have a guaranteed $100 by simply betting Penn to win, you'd have to lay $320
To have a guaranteed $100 by betting the two props (still assuming Penn wins), you'd have to bet $275 (to win $291) on Penn to win inside the distance and $190 (to win 376) on Penn to win by decision, so you'd be laying a much more expensive total of $465.
Of course, there's also the possibility that Penn loses -- so that's where the percentages come in for my post above.Comment -
I'm not trying to guarantee myself $100.... I'm looking for the safest and best value I can get while still being able to make a profit. In my eyes the safest scenario is the one I have proposed. I'm risking less than what it would cost taking the moneyline while still giving myself a chance to win as much if it goes to decision in favor of BJ. At the same time if he does lose I am saving myself $120 dollars by not laying the juice. And if he happens to finish edgar(which I don't think he will) I would still make a measly profit.
Sure, maybe I am better off just putting my nuts on the table and laying the $320 on BJ to guarantee my $100 with any victory, but I am not really thrilled about the extra $120 it would cost me. I understand what you are saying, but it just comes down to saving $ for me. No sense throwing that extra bone around in my eyes. Gotta leave me some for football in case this goes south
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If your goal is less than $100 due to risk, you just bet less than $320, or the amount you are willing to lose on this bet. My point is that no matter how much you are trying to net, whether it is $5 or $5000, the value is with Penn to win straight up rather than taking both props.
If you only take one prop, the greater value could be with that prop (though I dont' think it is in this case). But in MMA, you will almost never find greater value betting two exclusive props (to win inside the distance and by decision) over the straight win.
Anyway, if you've made up your mind about both props, good luck to ya. But to test it out, you might try keeping a tally for this and future UFC events -- even without actually betting, just keep a tally of what would happen had you bet $100 on a fighter to win straight up vs $50 on him to win by decision + $50 on him to win by stoppage. I believe you'd soon find that the tally on the straight bets nets far more (or loses far less) than the props.Comment -
Just take our word for it, GoldRush
and as lasker says, nothing forces you to bet exactly $100 on a +198 or exactly $320 on a -320 moneyline. You're free to bet whatever you want, the line just indicates the relation between bet and potential winnings.
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I appreciate the insight guys it's what makes this site awesome
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