I haven't been wagering seriously on MMA for very long, but I enjoy it and I am constantly looking for ways to improve. So I thought I would write down what I am doing and what I could do to improve. And I decided to share the steps that I'm using in case anyone else is interested, and to see if anyone wants to compare notes or has any feedback.
This is what I do today, along with some things I think I should be doing:
1) Analysis
4) Incorporating additional information into analysis (not yet fully implemented)
Realistically, I think I'm doing a couple of things well in the process, but I have several more things I can improve significantly on. For example, I seem to be better than expected at analyzing fights and predicting outcomes. However I need to improve a lot more in the following areas:
This is what I do today, along with some things I think I should be doing:
1) Analysis
a) The fighters
2) Wageringi) Records
ii) Finishes
iii) Camps
iv) Rankings
v) Common opponents
vi) Styles
b) The fightii) Finishes
iii) Camps
iv) Rankings
v) Common opponents
vi) Styles
i) Matchup
ii) Ways to win
iii) Other factors (e.g. ring rust, difficult weight cut, etc.)
c) The lines (money, parlay, prop)ii) Ways to win
iii) Other factors (e.g. ring rust, difficult weight cut, etc.)
i) Available now
ii) Likelihood of movement, direction, and amount (not yet fully implemented)
ii) Likelihood of movement, direction, and amount (not yet fully implemented)
a) Vig (not yet fully implemented)
b) Kelly Criterion (not yet implemented)
3) Gathering and documenting resultsb) Kelly Criterion (not yet implemented)
4) Incorporating additional information into analysis (not yet fully implemented)
Realistically, I think I'm doing a couple of things well in the process, but I have several more things I can improve significantly on. For example, I seem to be better than expected at analyzing fights and predicting outcomes. However I need to improve a lot more in the following areas:
- Determining likelihood of line movement, direction, and amount - I do this a bit now, but I am not formally tracking it and my analysis is pretty rudimentary. This is probably the weakest part of my current process, since it doesn't seem very intuitive to me and I'm not very experienced at it.
- Formally factoring vig into betting decisions - I calculate the vig and my expectation now, and if the vig is less than 6% and my expectation is greater than 15%, I typically make the bet. I think I should probably be subtracting the vig from my expectation and then ranking potential wagers by that number to determine my bets. Not sure if this is how others do this.
- Using Kelly Criterion - I've read about it and I understand it, but I haven't started using it to size my bets yet. I'm not in any danger of burning through my bankroll, so I'll probably start using Kelly (.5) once I have a losing event.
- Incorporating additional information post-fight - I need to be more diligent about doing this. I think about the fight outcomes in relationship to my analysis and wagers, but I should be documenting my thoughts. I probably should also consider coming up with post-fight estimates of winning for each fight I bet. For example, the best line I could get on Jon Fitch at UFC 117 was -120, or a 55% chance of beating Thiago Alves. I estimated his chances of winning as at least 66%, and bet accordingly. After watching Fitch win the fight in dominant fashion, I would re-estimate his chances of winning the fight as higher, maybe 75%.
