Mr.Kittys UFC117 picks

[Mr.Kitty]

Jon Fitch @ 2.00/+100, 2 units

Okay, I punched this one in a couple of days ago, first off Fitch is one of my favorite fighters but I try not to make that stuff cloud my judgement after all we are trying to make money. I actually dont like this card for betting on, dont really see anything I particulary like. A few close fights and thats always hard to cap and then big favorites/underdogs.

I dont like when everyone seems to be on the same side of a fight and a couple of days ago this was pretty much how it was, everyone liked Fitch. But now more Alves backers have come out and sites like sherdog are predicting Alves to win.
I usually like to wait til after the weigh-ins to place my bets and now ive watched it and Alves dident make weight. He failed to make weight against Hughes so hes had problems with this before. Fitch said that he wont accept the fight unless Alves makes the weight so he have to cut some more. This will probably affect Alves cardio.

Theres a lot of variables in this fight, the best thing might be to stay away but im already invested so im going to ride it out. One possibility is to also bet Alves to win by KO, TKO, DQ @ 3.00/+200 and make it a straddle. If Alves have problems and are afraid that his cardio wont last 3 rounds he will go harder for the finish and if he doesnt get it and gas, Fitch can grind out a decision. Hope I did not make too many grammatical errors .

Lets see what happens, good luck everyone!

[squallsquall]

When's the deadline for making weight, this second time?

[Mr.Kitty]

When's the deadline for making weight, this second time?

Im not 100% sure but I think they gave him an hour.

[The HOFF]

When's the deadline for making weight, this second time?

They have 2 hours to make it. Alves could not drop the extra 1/2 pound and has to forfeit 20% of his purse to Fitch.

[squallsquall]

They have 2 hours to make it. Alves could not drop the extra 1/2 pound and has to forfeit 20% of his purse to Fitch.

Ok. Well, I'm curious as to how much he really tried.

After all, he missed weight against Hughes, and didn't seem very affected by the strain.

[Fiasco01]

Just out of curiosity, why not take Fitch by decision and get + money instead of EV?

[Mr.Kitty]

Just out of curiosity, why not take Fitch by decision and get + money instead of EV?

My bookie does not offer it

[Vaughany]

Just out of curiosity, why not take Fitch by decision and get + money instead of EV?

Yee, surely it makes sense to go Fitch by decision...if he's going to win its more than 80% likely that it will be by decision! Same with Sonnen against Silva and Guida against Dos Anjos...they can only win by decision.

[Fiasco01]

Yee, surely it makes sense to go Fitch by decision...if he's going to win its more than 80% likely that it will be by decision! Same with Sonnen against Silva and Guida against Dos Anjos...they can only win by decision.

Definitely agree with you on all counts, Silva inside distance/Sonnen by Decision, Guida by decision/Dos Anjos by submission, Alves inside distance/Fitch by decision.

Right now Im heavy on Dos Santos, not sure if I want to bet on the Silva/Sonnen fight or if I just want to watch, and I definitely love Fitch by decision along with Guida/Dos Anjos hedge.

[Mr.Kitty]

Bet365 does not offer any props which sux and I know it doesnt make sense that I suggest a bet on Alves by KO as a straddle when I cant bet any props . But I only mention it as a possiblity, im going to stick with my Fitch bet.

[Vaughany]

Bet365 does not offer any props which sux and I know it doesnt make sense that I suggest a bet on Alves by KO as a straddle when I cant bet any props . But I only mention it as a possiblity, im going to stick with my Fitch bet.

U should use Paddypower bro, I've got a bet365 account and used to use them before I discovered paddypower (still use bet365 for footy bets tho). Paddypower usually have better odds and main benefit is that they do prop bets. Got Fitch at 7/4 by decision!

[Vaughany]

Definitely agree with you on all counts, Silva inside distance/Sonnen by Decision, Guida by decision/Dos Anjos by submission, Alves inside distance/Fitch by decision.

Right now Im heavy on Dos Santos, not sure if I want to bet on the Silva/Sonnen fight or if I just want to watch, and I definitely love Fitch by decision along with Guida/Dos Anjos hedge.

Ye ive just got Dos Santos in a couple of parlays. Im resisting betting on the Silva/Sonnen fight as well...just gonna enjoy the spectacle! Jus counting on Fitch by dec, the Guida/Dos Anjos straddle and Hughes/Almeida to decision.

[Mr.Kitty]

U should use Paddypower bro, I've got a bet365 account and used to use them before I discovered paddypower (still use bet365 for footy bets tho). Paddypower usually have better odds and main benefit is that they do prop bets. Got Fitch at 7/4 by decision!

Thanks for the tip! I have a Unibet account but currently no funds there but they also offer some props, thinking about moving some cash there. They also have Fitch by decision @ 7/4.

[Vaughany]

Thanks for the tip! I have a Unibet account but currently no funds there but they also offer some props, thinking about moving some cash there. They also have Fitch by decision @ 7/4.

No probs, hadnt heard of Unibet, just checking it out now, looks like theyve got every fight coming up in UFC on ther, gonna av to keep an eye on unibet and consider signing up if odds are decent!

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

fitch wins by dec

[limitation]

Sorry I am new to UFC. What is the difference between wins inside distance and wins by decision?

[Mr.Kitty]

Sorry I am new to UFC. What is the difference between wins inside distance and wins by decision?

A normal UFC fight is decided over 3 five minute rounds, titel fights are 5 five minute rounds. With inside the distance we mean that a fighter wins by KO, TKO, DQ or submission and ends the fight prematurely. If none of the fighters end the fight before all the rounds are over it will go to the judges and one of the fighters will win by decision. So with Fitch by decision we mean that the fight will go all three rounds and Fitch will then win the judges decision.

[limitation]

Thanks for explaining.

[Mr.Kitty]

Jon Fitch @ 2.00/+100, 2 units

Okay, I punched this one in a couple of days ago, first off Fitch is one of my favorite fighters but I try not to make that stuff cloud my judgement after all we are trying to make money. I actually dont like this card for betting on, dont really see anything I particulary like. A few close fights and thats always hard to cap and then big favorites/underdogs.

I dont like when everyone seems to be on the same side of a fight and a couple of days ago this was pretty much how it was, everyone liked Fitch. But now more Alves backers have come out and sites like sherdog are predicting Alves to win.
I usually like to wait til after the weigh-ins to place my bets and now ive watched it and Alves dident make weight. He failed to make weight against Hughes so hes had problems with this before. Fitch said that he wont accept the fight unless Alves makes the weight so he have to cut some more. This will probably affect Alves cardio.

Theres a lot of variables in this fight, the best thing might be to stay away but im already invested so im going to ride it out. One possibility is to also bet Alves to win by KO, TKO, DQ @ 3.00/+200 and make it a straddle. If Alves have problems and are afraid that his cardio wont last 3 rounds he will go harder for the finish and if he doesnt get it and gas, Fitch can grind out a decision. Hope I did not make too many grammatical errors .

Lets see what happens, good luck everyone!

Result: 1-0, +2 units

Another good winner