why is late money coming in on Alves?

[lasker]

Before, the odds were even. Now on Pinnacle Alves is -129 and Fitch is +117. I would have expected the reverse, considering that Alves didn't show up at the open workout because he's again having problems with the weight cut. Any ideas? Fitch backers, is this line movement -- coupled with the fact that Fitch seems to be the more popular bet -- something that would concern you at all?

[The HOFF]

I was wondering the same thing.

[brooks85]

because a story just came out contradicting the one about alves having weight issues


When alves missed the event the web went in flames about a weight cut issue. Today, a story released with him saying "its been one of the easiest weightcuts in awhile..."and a bunch of other things about how his weightcut is on schedule, which could be a lie. Will know more here in a few hours.

Basically, people got to excited about alves missing that open workout what i figure.

http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/08/06/thiago-alves-weight-cut-for-ufc-117-easiest-its-ever-been/

[lasker]

Thanks brooks, I hadn't seen that. I think you're right that it could easily be a lie... we'll see.

I guess enough bettors decided that if Alves has little trouble making weight that he should favored here, but I don't agree.

[Educ8d Degener8]

We'll find out about the "weight issues" in a little over 2 hours

[brooks85]

it is definitely a close fight. The last two times this match was made i was on fitch. Now tho, i just dont know thats it worth betting on either guy for me. Fitch will get alves down and alves will get back up, rinse and repeat, no doubt in my mind about that. If alves really did have trouble making weight and it shows tonight, that would be enough of an edge for me to beat on fitch. The fight is that close.


side note

a lot of mma talk on jim rime right now, dana was just on there

[vassman86]

I'd keep this fight out of parlays because it's really a coinflip. I'd lean toward Fitch because he's really proven that he can control fights and he's one tough bitch to finish off.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

can't believe that Alves weight made the line move so quick. You could have easily gotten Alves and Fitch at plus money in the last month

[Eccocide]

Even before Alves said this has been an easy cut, his manager put out a statement right after the initial rumour came out that he missed the open workout cause of weight issues. He said:

Whenever [Thiago is] cutting weight, he doesn't like to do anything extra other than his routine," Kawa said. "It wasn't because he was having trouble cutting weight; it was because he wanted to stick to his schedule."

This was early yesterday morning, linear with the line move. As well, big money comes in late for fights due to limits. Many books and casinos raise limits a couple days before fight night. There's usually 2 times to watch line movement in MMA. The first week the line is open and the last week before the fight. In this case, Alves was driven down to -140 after opening. In the middle it climbed back up to -110 or EV. Now its getting pounded down again. Big/sharp money IMO is on Alves in this fight. Add to this the fact that 70% of boards and predictions I read are loving Fitch tells me to stay away from him. We will see though tomorrow night. I will most likely just sit back and enjoy this one.

[brooks85]

all that was said after he missed the workout. When people expected him at the open-workout and he didnt show up its obvious why the story took off and line moved. Then, when the word got out, true or not, the line went the other way, back to where it was. the money prolly went in on alves because he was at a better number and now he is now the clear favorite, and the books wants this fight back to 50/50 and want people to take fitch +115 and more. I personally dont think its sharp money, i just think the books are trying to break even on this one and alves was sitting at a better number when the story took off.

[Eccocide]

Exactly, and its obvious why it moved back once the original story was discredited. Thats pretty much what I was saying.

[brooks85]

o mb, i read that last sentence wrong, i thought you said you thought big/sharp money moved the line but you just said big/sharp money is on alves. Im tore up today from a rough night ha

[The HOFF]

it is definitely a close fight. The last two times this match was made i was on fitch. Now tho, i just dont know thats it worth betting on either guy for me. Fitch will get alves down and alves will get back up, rinse and repeat, no doubt in my mind about that. If alves really did have trouble making weight and it shows tonight, that would be enough of an edge for me to beat on fitch. The fight is that close.

Exactly how I'm looking at this one. Will make a play after the weigh in.

[brooks85]

ya i hope we see a physically depleted alves. Not as a fan but as bettor. If alves comes in looking stacked im probably not going to bet it. Fitch is going to be working his ass off to control alves like he tried to control pierce. The difference tho imo is pierce can offer a lot more defense to a takedown than alves and while doing that he was able to land some heavy shots on fitch. Alves has no problem scrambling and getting to his feet as he showed against gsp but i just dont think his tdd is going offer much. I also think putting stock in the fact alves was able to stuff kos takedowns is dangerous. Kos spent the first half of the round standing and got rocked very hard and you could tell he was not the same mentally and physically the remainder of that fight. The same thing could happen to fitch but we all know fitch isnt going dick around like kos did.

[NickBaragona]

ya i hope we see a physically depleted alves. Not as a fan but as bettor. If alves comes in looking stacked im probably not going to bet it. Fitch is going to be working his ass off to control alves like he tried to control pierce. The difference tho imo is pierce can offer a lot more defense to a takedown than alves and while doing that he was able to land some heavy shots on fitch. Alves has no problem scrambling and getting to his feet as he showed against gsp but i just dont think his tdd is going offer much. I also think putting stock in the fact alves was able to stuff kos takedowns is dangerous. Kos spent the first half of the round standing and got rocked very hard and you could tell he was not the same mentally and physically the remainder of that fight. The same thing could happen to fitch but we all know fitch isnt going dick around like kos did.

Not to mention Koscheck took that fight on short notice, Alves' original opponent was Diego Sanchez.

[Kaladarus]

I'm surprised Fitch is still a dog, didn't think he would be this close to fight time.

[GunShard]

Cutting Weight is a major factor in MMA. A fighter's cardio and stamina is depleted in a fight.

Carwin cutting weight effected his stamina against Lesnar.
Filho cutting weight effected his stamina against Sonnen.

I think fighters have to cut weight responsibly, Anderson Silva cut weight from the light weight division to middle weight division and won his fight.

I predict that Alves will be depleted in this fight against Fitch.

[limitation]

So who has a better chance to win? Sorry, I am new to UFC and just started learning.

[Vrakas]

fitch should get the win but the fight will go to decision.

[stefan084]

Alves 1/2 lb over at weigh ins and will still be cutting while Fitch rehydrates. I was leaning on Alves but will now just watch

[GunShard]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiago_Alves

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Fitch

1. If you look up Alves, this is the second time he failed to make weight, first one against Hughes. Alves is mentally weak to cut weight.

2. Fitch performed better than Alves against GSP. And Fitch defeated Alves before.

3.
Alves: Brown belt in Brazilian Jujitsu.
Fitch: Black belt in Guerrilla Jujitsu and NCAA Division I Wrestling.

4. Fitch has a reach advantage over Alves? I can't find the stats.

This could be the best bet.

[Kaladarus]

Alves 1/2 lb over at weigh ins and will still be cutting while Fitch rehydrates. I was leaning on Alves but will now just watch

He couldn't cut the half lb in the 2 hour time limit. His body must be very stressed from cutting for him not to be able to lose the extra weight.

[Fiasco01]

Personally I think the weight cut coupled with Fitch's strategy to grapple will lead to Fitch by decision. Alves will be exhausted by the 3rd round and we've Fitch get ROCKED multiple times in a 5 round fight and still keep coming.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

fitch /clay guido parley 1x 257.94
bosetch
silva
de sontos
phil davis
2x to make 2,2x

[36mafia]

Alves 1/2 lb over at weigh ins and will still be cutting while Fitch rehydrates. ........

this made me lol!


fitch is the play here.
over a year layoff for alves and fitch can dictate the fight with his wrestling.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

thats an expensive half pound, 20% of his purse goes to Fitch

[sundin4prez]

fitch all day , along with guida, davis, boetsh, hughes and sonnen