What does everyone think about this fight. I think there is good value in Florian. If you dont count his loss to Penn which he was thoroughly beaten he hasnt lost in 10 fights. His loss before that came against sherk who is also a wrestler like maynard, but Kenny has come a long way since then. All top guys on his resume since that loss. Stevenson, guida, huerta, just to name a few. Also Florian inside the distance should be around +250 and like Kenny says, I finish fights. Only huerta has taken him to decision since the loss to sherk.
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this fight is way too hard to pick in my eyesComment -
KenFlo all the way, hes so much more of a complete fighterComment -
I totally agree. I bet pretty big on Florian as soon as the line opened.Comment -
I agree, Florian should tool Gray on the feet. He has shown a very good jab which should help keep Gray away and essentially work as some extra takedown defense. I don't see kenny finishing it (unless Gray knocks himself out again) but I can easily see him winning a decisionComment -
Im defo gonna take the decision prop bet for this one. Would go for Florian by decision but wrestling as always been the least solid part of his game and cant count out a Maynard lay n pray special.Comment -
Florian is very smart, a hard worker, and adaptable. He's one of my favorite fighters to bet on. If he were +200 or better, I'd bet on him in a rematch with Penn. I'd favor him over Edgar. Gray Maynard has one gear, basically, so he's a straightforward opponent for Florian to prepare for. Florian's standup is on another level. His wrestling has improved by leaps and bounds and I don't think he'll be easy to take down or hold down effectively, given his active guard. Maynard has power in his hands and excellent wrestling, but I just can't see him winning this.Comment -
florian will win.Comment -
gray cant stand with florian and even if he get a takedown florian will use his quick elbows.Comment -
maynard barely beat diaz, if he even won that fight. Gomi pounding Griffin only makes me more confident in this fight after kenflo handled him relatively easily.Comment -
I like Kenflo here also, but if Maynard uses his wrestling he will have a shot at winning a decision. Maynard should have lost against Diaz. If he follows a similar strategy to the one he used against Diaz this should be an easy win for Florian. From the looks of things Maynard is focusing on striking. It appeared he was scared to take Diaz down. If the same thing happens with Florian he will lose. Also if he takes Florian down there is a possibility of him getting submitted. With Maynard focusing primarily on his stand up, it's hard to think he will prepared for takedowns/Florian's ground game. I definitely like Kenflo here. If Maynard stuck to what made him win all those fights he'd have an excellent shot, however his continued focus on striking will be his downfall in this fight.Comment -
Good analysis in this thread. Hard to argue any of it. KenFlo looks to be a solid play.Comment -
Maynard is the value he beat the lwc and he has great take downs and the ability to hold Kenny down for 3 rounds.Comment -
Maynard's wrestling won't be enough to beat Kenflo.Comment -
I like Maynard as the dog here, hes got the edge in the wrestling department and I could easily see him grinding out a decision.Comment -
I just did my first blog post. Not sure how to reference it, so I've included it below:
Background:
Florian is 13-4-0 overall, with 12 finishes. He is 11-3 in the UFC, with losses to Diego Sanchez at the finale of The Ultimate Fighter Season 1 in 2005, and to Sean Sherk and BJ Penn for title shots in 2006 and 2009. He currently fights out of the Florian Martial Arts Center, and is ranked #4 at Lightweight in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.
Maynard is 9-0-0 overall (with 1 No Contest due to simultaneous knockout), with 7 decisions. He is 7-0 in the UFC. He currently fights out of Xtreme Couture, and is ranked #7 at Lightweight in the USA Today / SB Nation consensus rankings.
Florian and Maynard have one recent common opponent: Roger Huerta. Florian won a unanimous decision on 8/9/2008, ending Huerta's 16 fight win streak. Maynard won a split decision a year later, just before Huerta left the UFC to pursue a career in acting.
Skills:
Florian is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and Muay Thai striker who has developed himself into a well-rounded MMA fighter since his time on TUF Season 1. He looks to finish fights, as evidenced by his 10 finishes in the UFC, tied with Chuck Liddell. Florian has an excellent ground game, adequate wrestling, and top-notch cardio.
Maynard is a wrestler who has worked to expand his skill set since TUF Season 5. Nearly 78% of his wins have come by decision. Maynard is large for a lightweight, and correspondingly strong. His striking is improving, but limited. His cardio is also top-notch.
Matchup:
Florian will attempt to avoid Maynard's takedowns, establish his jab, and work to control the fight. If (when) he gets taken down, Florian will throw vicious elbows from the bottom while working to reverse position, lock in a submission, or return to his feet.
Maynard will attempt to throw his overhand right in order to set up the takedown. When he achieves a takedown, he will not attempt to pass, but will instead look to ground-and-pound from within Florian's guard.
Florian can finish the fight via submission, and has a chance to finish standing as well.
Maynard is unlikely to finish Florian, and will instead attempt to win a decision through takedowns and top control.
Lines:
Prediction:
I expect this fight to go more than two rounds. In the third round, I expect Florian to win by rear naked choke, or shortly thereafter by 29-28 unanimous decision. While it is possible that Maynard could win a decision, I do not think it is likely given Florian's all-around game.
Wager(s):
I believe Florian wins this fight better than two-thirds of the time, so I like him up to -200. At -140, I am making a significant play of 4 units, and may increase my wager as the fight approaches.
A prop bet on the fight going to decision may also be an option, but the current line of -180 (5 Dimes) or 64% seems about right.
I also plan to include Florian in several parlays due to the favorable odds and the high likelihood that he will win the fight.Comment -
I just think this is a bad spot to bet.Comment -
Rootin for KenfloComment -
I like Ken-Flo with the home advantage but just can't count Maynard out. Think Im gonna stick with a prop-bet on it going to decision.Comment -
maynard for me.... kenny has never fought a elite wrestler (i dont count sherk as a wrestler, he doesent use it and i dont see steveson or guida as elite).... i can see this fight being a very uneventful 3 round decsion going to grayComment -
Wow overwhelming majority for Florian around 13 people to Maynards 3. I didnt expect it to be so one-sided.Comment -
florian will win,he is a very smart competitor,it will be very hard for maynard to take him down.florian is almost a solid bet.Comment -
Maynard can win this fight if he uses his wrestling the whole time and stays out of submissions. His fight with Diaz he had a stand up war because he was scared of Diaz's ground game. It's highly likely that he'll come into this fight trying to strike with Florian. The Diaz fight was a close split decision and Maynard didn't go for takedowns to secure rounds. Using the same strategy Florian wins easy. Maynard has been ignoring his wrestling background to focus on striking. His ground game is probably not going to be good enough to stop Florian from submitting him or gaining control. If Maynard starts using his wrestling later on in the fight he'll probably be too far behind on the score cards for it to matter.Comment -
Apparently 5 Dimes have the following prop odds:
Maynard wins by 3 round decision +401
Florian wins inside distance +155
Florian wins by 3 round decision +217
Got 3 straddle options here IMO depending on value:
1) Florian to win and Maynard to win by decision
2) Maynard to win and Florian to win by decision
3) Florian to win by decision and Maynard to win by decision
I think Maynard at +400 is decent value.Comment -
Even I would have tried Maynard by decision at +401 and I think Florian is a great bet. I checked a couple sites and the best I see now is +259.Comment -
Likewise. Although I think Florian is a great bet at the current odds (and even as much as -200), I would have taken Maynard by decision at +350 or better. Unfortunately that +401 line was taken advantage of very quickly.Comment -
People don't like Gray because of his style.... see jon fitch and the value he had last fight... The difference is fitch can actually fight.Comment -
what is the minimum for straight sports wgers at Bookmaker.com? can you points for for spreads like nba nfl ? if yes what the price of buying points at Bookmaker.com? thanks if anyone has any infoComment -
Oh sorry. I dont use them maybe some one else can help you.Comment -
Kenflo will outclass maynardComment
