Forrest Petz??? UFC 116

[Educ8d Degener8]

Looking for info on Forrest Petz from you sharps... He's fighting Daniel Roberts this Saturday on the undercard, and for some reason, I'm intrigued in this matchup.

From memory, I seem to recall thinking that Roberts looked promising before getting KTFO'd by John Howard. I remember a pretty decent rubber guard, and he has solid wrestling and grappling credentials.

Now Petz's record isn't that great (18-7), but he's fought some decent/notable fighters... wins over Dan Hardy and Fioravanti, losses to Marcus Davis, Josh Neer, TJ Grant. And quite frankly, I don't recall any of these fights.

4 of Petz's 7 losses are via sub, and 7 of Roberts' 9 wins are submissions.

The one major red flag for me on Roberts is that aside from John Howard, his past opponents have very poor pedigrees (with maybe two exceptions)...

Ill, Chairib, anyone... what say you?

[Chairib]

I'll try break down some film later this evening and give you my thoughts. Cool?

[Eccocide]

I lean Roberts in this one, depending on the line.

Just some quick thoughts. I think Petz is going to have trouble with Robert's Grappling ability. He struggled mightily to defend the TD against Burkman for the first 2 rounds until Burkman gassed. Gassaway was able to take him down with ease and he isnt a great wrestler. As well, his ground game is pretty sloppy. In his fight vs Victor O'Donnell, he put himself in some bad positions leading to the RNC. He is pretty lacidasical with his guard and doesn't seem to have the hip speed to work his way out from the bottom. Roberts is on another level in this category being a multiple time NAGA winner and ADCC finalist. Petz does have tremendous heart, a lot of experience and is pretty well rounded, but I don't think this is a good matchup for him.

[Vaughany]

Roberts will be a favourite and should win...no value in bettin on this probly unless Petz is at +250 or something silly.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Thx fellas. Job is kickin' my azz these days so film review time is limited. That aside from a lot of films being removed from the web

[Cappinpicks]

[Shagdogy]

You can find a lot of Roberts' grappling highlights... he's got great grappling skills. Very quick. Don't know much about Petz, but 4 of 7 losses by submission sounds pretty bad for him in this matchup.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I got around to reviewing some film. I'm on Roberts at -170 here. Petz looks like a gamer with a lot of heart and moxy, but I think Roberts' skill set appears more impressive and that he should be able to dictate where the fight goes as long as he keeps his wits about him while the fight is standing. Will include a more in depth write up with my 116 picks...

GL all.

[Shagdogy]

Good call... after looking up Petz some more his sub losses to Neer and Marcus Davis stand out... as long as he doesn't strike as well as John Howard (he doesn't) then I think Roberts is a good bet here. At -170 I might throw him in a parlay though, he's at the edge of the worth I like to get on individual bets.

[Shagdogy]

Put Roberts in a parlay with Romero for a small gain. 1 unit to win 1.5. If your name starts with "PET", it's time to lose on Saturday night!

[Chairib]

I got around to reviewing some film. I'm on Roberts at -170 here. Petz looks like a gamer with a lot of heart and moxy, but I think Roberts' skill set appears more impressive and that he should be able to dictate where the fight goes as long as he keeps his wits about him while the fight is standing. Will include a more in depth write up with my 116 picks...

GL all.

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I've been really busy this week.

When it comes to last minute replacements, these fights can be sort of crazy to figure out. Most of the time the last minute guy is just fodder for the other fighter. Daniel Roberts himself was a late replacement for Anthony Johnson in the fight against Howards. But every once in a while you'll get a fight like Roan Carneiro vs Kevin Burns or Matt Wiman vs Jim Miller where the late replacement comes in and beats the other guy pretty easily.

Forrest Petz is a dull dull fighter. He looks to keep the fight standing and win on points, that's really about it.

Daniel Roberts on the other hand is quite an accomplished wrestler and has a strong Jiu-Jitsu base. Doesn't waste a lot of time with stand up and looks to get it on the ground a quick as possible. I like his grappling style, he knows how to flow from positions and/or submission attempts. And he uses the rubber guard quite nicely. I could see him getting a Kimura in this fight against Petz.

My main criticism with Roberts is his striking. Not much on the feet and after watching his fight, his ground and pound lacks power. In his last fight against Howards, he chose to strike on the ground which gave his opponent an opportunity to get back to guard and back on his feet. Gave up a very good position on the mat and ended up getting taken down in return. This is that whole discussion on the mount's effectiveness in sports Jiu-Jitsu vs MMA that I had earlier with some of the dumbasses here.

Fortunately for Roberts, I haven't seen the same kind of power in Petz that I see in Howards. Howards' is a scary scary dude and just unloaded a killer left hand while essentially standing up in Roberts guard. Very few guys who have the ability to do something like that and Petz isn't on that list.

If Roberts can get it down to the mat, I don't see him having too much trouble controlling Forrest from there. A question becomes what if he can't get a submission and does he have the cardio to keep doing that in a three round fight? Is he healthy?

All things being said -170 seems like a great price for Roberts.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Sorry it took me so long to get back to you. I've been really busy this week.

When it comes to last minute replacements, these fights can be sort of crazy to figure out. Most of the time the last minute guy is just fodder for the other fighter. Daniel Roberts himself was a late replacement for Anthony Johnson in the fight against Howards. But every once in a while you'll get a fight like Roan Carneiro vs Kevin Burns or Matt Wiman vs Jim Miller where the late replacement comes in and beats the other guy pretty easily.

Forrest Petz is a dull dull fighter. He looks to keep the fight standing and win on points, that's really about it.

Daniel Roberts on the other hand is quite an accomplished wrestler and has a strong Jiu-Jitsu base. Doesn't waste a lot of time with stand up and looks to get it on the ground a quick as possible. I like his grappling style, he knows how to flow from positions and/or submission attempts. And he uses the rubber guard quite nicely. I could see him getting a Kimura in this fight against Petz.

My main criticism with Roberts is his striking. Not much on the feet and after watching his fight, his ground and pound lacks power. In his last fight against Howards, he chose to strike on the ground which gave his opponent an opportunity to get back to guard and back on his feet. Gave up a very good position on the mat and ended up getting taken down in return. This is that whole discussion on the mount's effectiveness in sports Jiu-Jitsu vs MMA that I had earlier with some of the dumbasses here.

Fortunately for Roberts, I haven't seen the same kind of power in Petz that I see in Howards. Howards' is a scary scary dude and just unloaded a killer left hand while essentially standing up in Roberts guard. Very few guys who have the ability to do something like that and Petz isn't on that list.

If Roberts can get it down to the mat, I don't see him having too much trouble controlling Forrest from there. A question becomes what if he can't get a submission and does he have the cardio to keep doing that in a three round fight? Is he healthy?

All things being said -170 seems like a great price for Roberts.

WTF dude -- it's like you were reading my mind or some sh*t

Agree completely, especially regarding the concern with Roberts' striking - a bit sloppy and undisciplined with it, but I think he has decent enough striking to mitigate anything Petz will come with unless Petz catches him with a bomb. Petz is scrappy, I'll give him that. But I got a laugh out of your description of him as "dull dull fighter" because I really struggled to keep my attention span while watching his footage. Hopefully, he doesn't lull Roberts into a mistake.

After getting KTFO'd by Howard, I expect Roberts to come out a bit tentative in round 1, but after feeling out Petz, I'm calling for a Roberts sub victory in the 2nd... Roberts just needs to keep his damn hands up and get it to the ground. Simple game plan... I think the line has value as the fact that Roberts was knocked out in his fight with Howard has artificially suppressed this line a bit.

The feeling I have regarding this fight is similar to the fight at 115 where I really liked Mario Miranda over Loiseau based on the matchup and their respective skills and tendencies. (Illmatick and I were both on that one, and I think he may be on Roberts as well)

GL all.

[Shagdogy]

I like what everyone's saying. Degener8, I don't think he'll be so much tentative, though, as just trying to get it to the ground ASAP. I think once he does he'll work the BJJ much harder and forget about GnP so he doesn't risk Petz getting up as Chairib said. If Roberts goes straight BJJ on the ground I think he handles Petz pretty easy. Lets hope.