Hey everyone... new to the forum.
I like McGee like the rest of you. Other than his fight to get in to the house, McCray hasn't really shown the ability to definitively put guys away, and I think Court is harder to finish than anyone else he's fought. This fight's headed for a decision and Savage's cardio is gonna let him down and Court will grind it out. At -210 I only see any real value for him in a parlay.
Hamill v. Jardine. Jardine's chin is terrible, but so is Hamill's boxing so he won't be able to finish. Jardine won't be able to finish Hamill either... he's only been stopped by Jon Jones and he's a complete beast. Look for a long, boring decision for Hamill. He should beat Jardine up in the clinch and score enough takedowns to earn the W. I see -155 as a pretty solid play for Hamill.
Simpson v. Leben. I can't help but think Leben is going to pull this one out. I know Simpson's cardio is rediculous and he's got very solid wrestling, but he tends to stay on the feet anyway and he had trouble with Lawlor's boxing. I actually thought Lawlor won that fight. At +250 Leben is very tempting.
I don't see much value in the rest of the lines. If the line for Siver goes up to the +200 range I'd consider it... Fisher hasn't fought in 8 months and he will be outsized by the larger Siver. Not touching that unless the value increases though.
1 unit on a parlay with McGee and Hamill
.5 unit on Leben
Total risk = 1.5 units. Possible return = 4 units
Thoughts on these plays?
I like McGee like the rest of you. Other than his fight to get in to the house, McCray hasn't really shown the ability to definitively put guys away, and I think Court is harder to finish than anyone else he's fought. This fight's headed for a decision and Savage's cardio is gonna let him down and Court will grind it out. At -210 I only see any real value for him in a parlay.
Hamill v. Jardine. Jardine's chin is terrible, but so is Hamill's boxing so he won't be able to finish. Jardine won't be able to finish Hamill either... he's only been stopped by Jon Jones and he's a complete beast. Look for a long, boring decision for Hamill. He should beat Jardine up in the clinch and score enough takedowns to earn the W. I see -155 as a pretty solid play for Hamill.
Simpson v. Leben. I can't help but think Leben is going to pull this one out. I know Simpson's cardio is rediculous and he's got very solid wrestling, but he tends to stay on the feet anyway and he had trouble with Lawlor's boxing. I actually thought Lawlor won that fight. At +250 Leben is very tempting.
I don't see much value in the rest of the lines. If the line for Siver goes up to the +200 range I'd consider it... Fisher hasn't fought in 8 months and he will be outsized by the larger Siver. Not touching that unless the value increases though.
1 unit on a parlay with McGee and Hamill
.5 unit on Leben
Total risk = 1.5 units. Possible return = 4 units
Thoughts on these plays?
