Fair enough. I think we agree here MD. Few bets keep variance down. In theory you should be able to profit long term and succeed if what you bet indeed has value, but as i said, when people betting to much, the consequences often are that they loose money, or risk a whole lot more to win the same amount etc. Look at grabaka, how much did he play yesterday 2000 dollars, to win 300? Thats symptomatic for having numerous of bets IMO. No offence to grabaka which i consider a good capper.
-
Comment -
The problem with the value is value thing to me is that we don't know with certainty where value is. But plays where there's big value, we can tell this. That's why I play fewer plays too.
This is what I've found for me though. I tend to have badly estimated my leans and they've actually had negative value. Could just be something thats not (yet) in my skillset.Comment -
You can never tell with absolute certainty where value is, that's true, but you can't tell for sure in the case of any plays, not even ones in which you think there are big value. I was on Guillard +130 last night and he completely dominated Danzig. Was there value there? Probably, but I don't know for sure. Estimating value is part of good handicapping, and if you feel that you're often mis-judging value, then there's a chance that you don't have an edge, or that your edge isn't as high as you think it is.Comment -
Would you say generally you feel you are as correct where you see small amounts of value as when you see large value, then? Based off your results and the way they occurred? Cause it seems untrue for me (and I don't think its any type of confirmation bias, I'd rather have it the other way), but that may be particular to me and my style. I feel like its a key question, even though its a broad one, and somewhat answerable.Comment -
Last night during his co-main event fight with Rory MacDonald, a UFC broadcaster described Jake as a "two time NCAA Division Two All-American". This is patently untrue. Jake wrestled in college for University of Nebraska-Omaha (UNO) for a single season, on the Division Two level, competing in exactly nine matches, and he never found himself anywhere near placing at the national championship. I would be willing to guess he had the talent to be an All-American; the UNO coaching staff thought highly enough of him to bring him on as an assistant coach, and his brother Joe actually was a two-time Division Two All-American for the University of Nebraska -Kearney. Nevertheless, Jake was definitely never a collegiate All-AmericanComment -
Yep, tried to explain tht to people on sherdog weeks ago who were saying his elite wrestling background would be the difference!Comment -
The idea of Moraga's "All-American" status comes from his two sixth place finishes at the University Freestyle Wrestling National Championships in 2006 and 2007. Placement at "Universities" only bestows All-American status in only the most dubious sense, and in no way is it collegiate All-American status. First off, University Freestyle Nationals features competition in freestyle wrestling, a completely different style of wrestling than the American folkstyle wrestling of college competition. Additionally, University Nationals is not varsity competition, and the wrestlers do not wrestle in connection to a school or collegiate team. Instead, wrestlers represent independent wrestling clubs with no official connection to intercollegiate wrestling; many competitors do not even wrestle for an actual college team at all. Finally, University Nationals does not enjoy anywhere near the same level of attention and participation from athletes as an NCAA wrestling championship.Comment -
Its not like titles really all that much though, I thought he had explosive and good enough technical wrestling to get Rory down, which I think he did show when he actually tried. Rory was MUCH bigger though, I think that also made quite a difference. Rory was impressive though, in a conservative kind of way. Like I said, he can follow a gameplan to a tee, which is an important trait when youre working with people like Sasafrash and Jackson.Comment -
"The Worst Show on Planet-Earth right here fellas"!!!
Comment -
New Vice documentary about "UK's Scariest Debt Collector"...sums up the kind of guys that are walking around in Tapout shirts over here!
Comment -
That video was a serious look into a different side of life. Thanks for the vid V. Not the guy you want knocking on your door. Also, damn it is gray over there!! Haha.Comment -
ha yeah, some rough bastards! Set in Warrington, very grim dilapidated place up North!Comment -
When you coming to boston?Comment -
Yeee boiii! ;D
3:15: Best moment...I like how the enthusiams dies right off when he said Bellator. LOL!Comment -
One of the best vice documentaries. AweeeeesommmmmeeeeeComment -
Comment -
You got winnerz tonight garage band drummer?Comment -
just the obvious ones Vinny and Aldo. Did have Aldo with McGregor before Ogle cried off so now just a single on him at some silly number. And got Vinny in 3 or 4 parlays. Card is very inspiring.
Looks like Im on Tom Watson as well at +118. Was gonna arb out but money has come in on Thales so looks like I'll be riding it out!
Comment -
Watch out bro, Leites is the only premium play of the card for MMAOB. Means Watson is done.just the obvious ones Vinny and Aldo. Did have Aldo with McGregor before Ogle cried off so now just a single on him at some silly number. And got Vinny in 3 or 4 parlays. Card is very inspiring.
Looks like Im on Tom Watson as well at +118. Was gonna arb out but money has come in on Thales so looks like I'll be riding it out!
Comment -
ha they are probably right. Hate betting against Brazilians in their own back yard, unless it's a flake like Banha Cane. Could of arbed it earlier when Thales was -110 on sportbetComment -
Word is Leites is only on this card as a favour to Aldo who asked for it directly, i also tend to think Watson is strong enough in the clinch to stuff Leites who is coming off of DOUBLE knee surgery and who doesnt have a good 'shot' he either goes for muscle trips in the clinch or he shoots from the 5th row.Comment -
Might play Thales SOTN and Vinny Mag SOTN and hope one of them hits!Comment -
yeah, I agree, and if this wasnt in Brazil I would be all over Kong at + odds and be more than happy with it. But the Brazil factor is my only concern...when these Brazilians fight in home town they seem to raise their game, get a second wind and more determination. One thing you can be pretty certain with Kong is that he won't be fazed by the atmosphere, he seems very mentally strong. I do think this card has strong potential for a few non-Brazilians to win, especially compared to previous Brazil cards.Comment -
Brazilian cards are generally pretty bad for betting, in my opinion. Unpredictable, and often filled with squash matches.Comment -
ah yes. My inkling would be that Dana would give it to Vinny Mag as he's on main card, but that inkling isnt enough to make me want to go ahead with it! I'll stay away and just hope Kong smashes Thales! Though actually that is another concern, Thales is actually quite tough and durable for a guy that has come from a purely BJJ background...then combine that with him fighting in his own backyard which seems to make them even more determined and it doesnt bode well! Could see him getting nod from judges and winning a split even if he gets beat up a bitComment -
Moraes is coming off of knee-surgery aswell, had it after the Forte fight.Comment -
The watson fight dangerous thoComment -
Tom Kong Watson @TomKongWatson56m
Heading off to the arena in the next hour to have it out with some Brazilian chap. Whatever it takes! #TEAMKONG lets do this!!!!
Calling it now Gaberz style.... Kong wins then calls out Bisping.... Bisping vs Kong in Manchester!Comment
