Vaughany's MMA Picks...

[Vaughany]

Weird. My wife would not be happy about watching me get a blowjob from a hooker.

yee, some of the shiit tht went on this wknd...!

[Vaughany]

a stag-do (or stag and doe, here in canada, presumably the same thing) is when the husband AND the wife have their "stag" version of party together at the same place.

fuckload gayer than a normal stag party

haha holy shit, tht would never happen over here! Stag-do here is just what y'all Americans call a Bachelor party I guess... basically going somewhere and getting the groom to be absolutely wasted for a wknd...no wives/future wives allowed anywhere near. Went to the arsehole of nowhere in Wales as well and was random as fuuck. Went out in Bangor (not the place Marcus Davis is from in Maine!... it's grimy student town at top of Wales...if y'all ever come over to Britain check it out...Some of the sluttiest girls and most inbred dudes u'll ever see! And only a couple miles away is amazing scenery and Mount Snowdon which we climbed whilst wankered and after an hours sleep...was absolute hell! Gonna be struggling big time this week

[Beelzebubzy]

There's a horror movie called stag night that's how I learned the term Silly ignorant bubzy american

[Mimialex]

But there is zero chance of this fight going to the ground unless JDS initiates. So JDS wont shoot a double and the only time it could go to the ground is when Mir gets blasted and JDS goes in for the kill but JDS has shown in the past that he knows how to clear the guard get to a good position to finish a fight. JDS will win in the 1st rd. I would be shocked if Mir makes it out of the 1st rd.

Also JDS has been quoted as saying he is more than aware of the zombie like state mir goes into and he's not going to fall for it. This is a lock. Wouldnt even contemplate mir might as well burn the money myself. This is such a bad match up. I would have rather seen big foot silva/ JDS and cain/ mir, stylistically but this fight makes more sense in terms of rankings.

Oh I agree this is indeed a bad match up! I'd better watch a battle with Overeem! Such a shame the guy was replaced!! You didn't mention him, don't you feel the same way?

[NunyaBidness]

haha holy shit, tht would never happen over here! Stag-do here is just what y'all Americans call a Bachelor party I guess... basically going somewhere and getting the groom to be absolutely wasted for a wknd...no wives/future wives allowed anywhere near. Went to the arsehole of nowhere in Wales as well and was random as fuuck. Went out in Bangor (not the place Marcus Davis is from in Maine!... it's grimy student town at top of Wales...if y'all ever come over to Britain check it out...Some of the sluttiest girls and most inbred dudes u'll ever see! And only a couple miles away is amazing scenery and Mount Snowdon which we climbed whilst wankered and after an hours sleep...was absolute hell! Gonna be struggling big time this week

Wankered? Is that like being drunk while masturbating?

[Vaughany]

Wankered? Is that like being drunk while masturbating?

haha just very drunk

[Beelzebubzy]

Waiting on Rivera by KO im guessing Mr. V?

[Vaughany]

Waiting on Rivera by KO im guessing Mr. V?

Would like tht, but highly doubt tht we'll even get Inside distance prop for the undercard fights....at least on sportbet anyway

[Vaughany]

UFC on Fuel 3 plays:



Parlay: 31.12 units on Rivera (-240), Lawlor (-225), & JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 41.052 units;


21.7 units on Hougland at +210 to win 45.57 units;


6.044 units on Levesseur at Evens to win 6.044 units.


No arbing out of these! I think Hougland should be closer to +150 (I think he wins 40% of the time) so half-kelly unit play on him at +210. Think Levesseur should be slight favourite so taking him as well. Obviously just needs to avoid the guillotine, hopefully uses clinch and trip take-downs rather than singles and double-legs. Cody has been training with Diaz bros so I'm sure he has evolved a bit, and he's improved his diet and physical training so dont expect him to gas out early. But Levesseur's wrestling and power should be enough.

Will post my ramblings on Hougland/Jabouin, Rivera/Soto, & Lawlor/JMac in a bit.

[Grabaka]

400 on Marcus Levesseur @ +136
200 on Jeff Hougland @ +227
100 on Francisco Rivera @ -200
100 on Korean Zombie @ +285
100 on Jeremy Stephens @ +220

GL

[GigaOuts]

21.7 units on Hougland at +210 to win 45.57 units;

Hypothetical Question.

I see you max out on Hougland. What do you do if Hougland jump to @ +220, than @ +235?
It likely won't happen, just saying what if you badly predict the line movement.

[Vaughany]

Hypothetical Question.

I see you max out on Hougland. What do you do if Hougland jump to @ +220, than @ +235?
It likely won't happen, just saying what if you badly predict the line movement.

Gd question. I'd stick with what I've got and accept that sometimes the line movement will not go way I predict. I the case of this one the line has gone from +265 to +205 on BM and from +200 to +180 on Sportbet/5dimes so I dont expect it to go back to +220 or worse. I'd rather take the +210 now rather than wait and see if it goes back to +220 to +250 range. Not out of realms of possibility tht Jabouin gets some late action tomorrow before the fight and pushes Hougland back up but I'd rather not take tht chance. Im predicting tht Hougland ends up +150 to +180 range by fight time.

[Vaughany]

400 on Marcus Levesseur @ +136
200 on Jeff Hougland @ +227
100 on Francisco Rivera @ -200
100 on Korean Zombie @ +285
100 on Jeremy Stephens @ +220

GL

Looks good to me... BOL buddy

[Vaughany]

UFC on Fuel 3 plays:



Parlay: 31.12 units on Rivera (-240), Lawlor (-225), & JDS/Mir to Not Go the Distance (-750) to win 41.052 units;


21.7 units on Hougland at +210 to win 45.57 units;


6.044 units on Levesseur at Evens to win 6.044 units.


No arbing out of these! I think Hougland should be closer to +150 (I think he wins 40% of the time) so half-kelly unit play on him at +210. Think Levesseur should be slight favourite so taking him as well. Obviously just needs to avoid the guillotine, hopefully uses clinch and trip take-downs rather than singles and double-legs. Cody has been training with Diaz bros so I'm sure he has evolved a bit, and he's improved his diet and physical training so dont expect him to gas out early. But Levesseur's wrestling and power should be enough.

Will post my ramblings on Hougland/Jabouin, Rivera/Soto, & Lawlor/JMac in a bit.

Rivera/Soto:


Rivera has the experience advantage and should not be at a disadvantage in any area so I'm prepared to play him at -250 or better. He most certainly has a considerable power advantage, his boxing is pretty good, fast hands and powerful, especially in his right hand and could see him countering a leg-kick like Michael McDonald did with a right hand and dropping Soto. Although he's stepping in on 2 weeks notice, Rivera was training for a title fight in Taichi Palace anyway and has spent time training with Ian Creepy McCall and at Erik Paulson's CSW training Center working with him and Josh Barnett. In his UFC debut he fought and lost to a good prospect in Reuben Duran, and despite breaking his hand in the first round he managed to go on to the third round until getting submitted. He showed tht he likes the guillotine against Duran, had the first one tight but Duran smartly shrugged himself out of it. But against a lesser skilled opponent in Soto (who hasn't got the credentials tht Duran has who has won the Grappler's Quest numerous times) he may be able to seal the deal with a guillotine if Soto does attempt a takedown. Rivera also wobbled Duran in the second round, but Duran showed a solid chin and recovered immediately. Others have not been able to recover, most recently Michael Mayday McDonald's brother who the UFC had tried to sign fell victim to Rivera's power within a minute and then Duarte was also knocked out viciously by Cisco more recently. Rivera has really stepped up his training and dedication since the Duran loss, he's had to deal with his mother being very ill in Arizona and wants to make some money to bring her closer to him in California. Only way I see Soto winning this is if he somehow lands a flying knee or head kick, or pulls off a crazy submission but we haven't seen anything yet which suggests he can pull that off.

[Vaughany]

UFC on Fuel 3 plays:


21.7 units on Hougland at +210 to win 45.57 units;

Jabouin/Hougland:


Firstly, I see no reason why Jabouin should be a -345 favourite over anybody in the UFC. That opening line was rather steep IMO. For a guy who's most impressive career win is a debatable split-decision over Walel Watson, I don't see how he can be such a big favourite! Add in the fact tht Hougland is a BJJ black-belt and offers a legit submission threat and it makes the opening odds even more surprising as Jabouin's weakness is on the ground. Some random points below to consider:

- Jabouin has looked to steal rounds with takedowns in last couple of fights, something tht Hougland has recognised and said in an interview so he'll be aware of tht. Could be said tht the reason Jabouin won the Loveland and Watson fights are because he got late takedowns in rounds to maybe sway the judges.

- Before the Walker fight, Hougland had had a month out due to a back injury after his previous fight then got the call on 10 days notice so just did some running and mit work and stepped in to the octagon so he wasnt in great condition.

- Hougland striking isn't bad at all, he actually started out in kickboxing before becoming passionate about BJJ. Good left jab, solid legkicks

- Received his BJJ black-belt last November from James Foster (Giva Santana black-belt).

Hougland has said he will take Jabouin down and submit him and I believe if Jabouin takes Hougland down Yves will be in trouble as Hougland is just as dangerous off his back with armbars and triangles, as well as sweeps which Jabouin has been vulnerable to in the past (Hominick swept Jabouin after being knocked down then finished the fight). I've read people saying Jabouin has solid submission defence, I'm not sure about that. Yes, he managed to avoid being submitted by Watson, but regardless he has shown that he gets in to bad spots on the ground, and I believe Hougland will be a lot more clinical than Watson.
Granted, taking Jabouin down won't be easy as he moves well and is pretty agile and quick, but he can do it through sheer tenacity or through catching a Jabouin kick. It's reassuring to hear Hougland admitting that he is at a disadvantage if the fight stays standing, and knows that his best route to victory is to take the fight to the ground:

GD: Talk me through your upcoming matchup with Jabouin. What can we expect to see?
JH: "We both know that he's a better kickboxer. He's a talented striker, a great athlete, and he's very explosive. So, if I would fight him in a kickboxing bout, he would probably smoke me. If it was a jiu-jitsu match, I would beat him."
"This isn't either, it's an MMA fight. The key is to mix things up and make him feel uncomfortable. I need to keep him guessing. I don't think I'll be outclassed on my feet at all. I put a lot of time into all areas, so we'll see how it goes."

[Beelzebubzy]

Rivera/Soto:


Rivera has the experience advantage and should not be at a disadvantage in any area so I'm prepared to play him at -250 or better. He most certainly has a considerable power advantage, his boxing is pretty good, fast hands and powerful, especially in his right hand and could see him countering a leg-kick like Michael McDonald did with a right hand and dropping Soto. Although he's stepping in on 2 weeks notice, Rivera was training for a title fight in Taichi Palace anyway and has spent time training with Ian Creepy McCall and at Erik Paulson's CSW training Center working with him and Josh Barnett. In his UFC debut he fought and lost to a good prospect in Reuben Duran, and despite breaking his hand in the first round he managed to go on to the third round until getting submitted. He showed tht he likes the guillotine against Duran, had the first one tight but Duran smartly shrugged himself out of it. But against a lesser skilled opponent in Soto (who hasn't got the credentials tht Duran has who has won the Grappler's Quest numerous times) he may be able to seal the deal with a guillotine if Soto does attempt a takedown. Rivera also wobbled Duran in the second round, but Duran showed a solid chin and recovered immediately. Others have not been able to recover, most recently Michael Mayday McDonald's brother who the UFC had tried to sign fell victim to Rivera's power within a minute and then Duarte was also knocked out viciously by Cisco more recently. Rivera has really stepped up his training and dedication since the Duran loss, he's had to deal with his mother being very ill in Arizona and wants to make some money to bring her closer to him in California. Only way I see Soto winning this is if he somehow lands a flying knee or head kick, or pulls off a crazy submission but we haven't seen anything yet which suggests he can pull that off.

How many SBR Points are you putting on this? That is the real question.

but seriously, V, thank you for your posts. I as well as all of these closet followers appreciate your breakdowns.

I have plays on Hougland, Lawlor, and Rivera as well. (Also have Amir and Cerrone)

[Vaughany]

Adding:


Parlay (double): 20 units on Rivera (-225), & TJ Grant (-350) to win 17.142 units.

[Beelzebubzy]

"I'll beat somebody and work my way up into the rankings and into that title picture," Hougland said. "If not, I'll get beat up, and they'll send me home. I'm 33 years old. I'm here to get it done now."

Decent quote, I think he knows he has to get this to the ground asap

[brokenbrain]

Jabouin/Hougland:


Firstly, I see no reason why Jabouin should be a -345 favourite over anybody in the UFC. That opening line was rather steep IMO. For a guy who's most impressive career win is a debatable split-decision over Walel Watson, I don't see how he can be such a big favourite! Add in the fact tht Hougland is a BJJ black-belt and offers a legit submission threat and it makes the opening odds even more surprising as Jabouin's weakness is on the ground. Some random points below to consider:

- Jabouin has looked to steal rounds with takedowns in last couple of fights, something tht Hougland has recognised and said in an interview so he'll be aware of tht. Could be said tht the reason Jabouin won the Loveland and Watson fights are because he got late takedowns in rounds to maybe sway the judges.

- Before the Walker fight, Hougland had had a month out due to a back injury after his previous fight then got the call on 10 days notice so just did some running and mit work and stepped in to the octagon so he wasnt in great condition.

- Hougland striking isn't bad at all, he actually started out in kickboxing before becoming passionate about BJJ. Good left jab, solid legkicks

- Received his BJJ black-belt last November from James Foster (Giva Santana black-belt).

Hougland has said he will take Jabouin down and submit him and I believe if Jabouin takes Hougland down Yves will be in trouble as Hougland is just as dangerous off his back with armbars and triangles, as well as sweeps which Jabouin has been vulnerable to in the past (Hominick swept Jabouin after being knocked down then finished the fight). I've read people saying Jabouin has solid submission defence, I'm not sure about that. Yes, he managed to avoid being submitted by Watson, but regardless he has shown that he gets in to bad spots on the ground, and I believe Hougland will be a lot more clinical than Watson.
Granted, taking Jabouin down won't be easy as he moves well and is pretty agile and quick, but he can do it through sheer tenacity or through catching a Jabouin kick. It's reassuring to hear Hougland admitting that he is at a disadvantage if the fight stays standing, and knows that his best route to victory is to take the fight to the ground:

GD: Talk me through your upcoming matchup with Jabouin. What can we expect to see?
JH: "We both know that he's a better kickboxer. He's a talented striker, a great athlete, and he's very explosive. So, if I would fight him in a kickboxing bout, he would probably smoke me. If it was a jiu-jitsu match, I would beat him."
"This isn't either, it's an MMA fight. The key is to mix things up and make him feel uncomfortable. I need to keep him guessing. I don't think I'll be outclassed on my feet at all. I put a lot of time into all areas, so we'll see how it goes."

Wow, impressive fight breakdown, thx for posting

[Vaughany]

Wow, impressive fight breakdown, thx for posting

ha Not if Jabouin goes and KO's Hougland in the first round!

[Vaughany]

Rory MacDonald post-training session!...

[Vaughany]

Gerry Hopkins (UK fighter) broken leg after having a leg kick checked...

[NunyaBidness]

**** you for posting that.

[Vaughany]

ha gotta keep it real son

[Vitooch]

Fap

[Vitooch]

I think the eye pic is more gruesome than the leg.

Btw V, I dont usually do this, but I made a parlay with Lawlor -225 and Dos Anjos -265. After giving the fight some thought and seeing the Shalorus line love to +240. I may have a change in heart and want to either cancel the parlay with a play on Shalorus or perhaps put even more money on Shalorus +240 than i did on the parlay. Would my sportsbook mind if I made such a bet? Excuse my ignorance

[Beelzebubzy]

I think the eye pic is more gruesome than the leg.

Btw V, I dont usually do this, but I made a parlay with Lawlor -225 and Dos Anjos -265. After giving the fight some thought and seeing the Shalorus line love to +240. I may have a change in heart and want to either cancel the parlay with a play on Shalorus or perhaps put even more money on Shalorus +240 than i did on the parlay. Would my sportsbook mind if I made such a bet? Excuse my ignorance

You are now subject to the wrath of math by Nunya.

[Vitooch]

Hopefully Nunya will go easy on the sarcasm because he likes me, unlike 75% of the posters here

[NunyaBidness]

I think the eye pic is more gruesome than the leg.

Btw V, I dont usually do this, but I made a parlay with Lawlor -225 and Dos Anjos -265. After giving the fight some thought and seeing the Shalorus line love to +240. I may have a change in heart and want to either cancel the parlay with a play on Shalorus or perhaps put even more money on Shalorus +240 than i did on the parlay. Would my sportsbook mind if I made such a bet? Excuse my ignorance

Some books would care, some wouldn't. I wouldn't do it personally. If you're at bookmaker, they won't care for sure. Rec books I wouldn't F with. They shouldn't care as its pure profit for them, but sometimes they're weird.

Either way, its a gross spot to be in. If Shalorus and Lawlor both lose you're ******. It'd work out better if the Lawlor fight was first. I would let it ride and hope someone gets a tummyache.

If you have a buddy who likes betting you could try and sell him the parlay outright.

Your ticket for one-time only sarcasm free post has been redeemed.

[Vitooch]

Really not a big deal either way. I have no problem letting this ride.

Thanks brah.

[Beelzebubzy]

Really not a big deal either way. I have no problem letting this ride.

Thanks brah.

And stop studying chemistry. What the hell is your major?
Philosophy and Psychology majors are the way to go, obviously.

[Vitooch]

My major is engineering...took chemistry, calculus, analytical physics, and microeconomics this semester

[NunyaBidness]

My major is engineering...took chemistry, calculus, analytical physics, and microeconomics this semester

nerd

[Vitooch]

nerd

Also high school lacrosse offensive player of the year in senior year...a.k.a the complete package

[Vaughany]

Also high school lacrosse offensive player of the year in senior year...a.k.a the complete package

haaha