1. #1
    THE_LOCKSMITH
    THE_LOCKSMITH's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-25-08
    Posts: 6,332
    Betpoints: 800

    UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros (February 18, 2018)



    FS1, 9:00 pm ET
    Donal Cerrone vs Yancy Medeiros
    Derrick Lewis vs Marcin Tybura
    Francisco Trinaldo vs James Vick
    Thiago Alves vs Curtis Millender
    Jessica Aguilar vs Livia Renata Souza
    Sage Northcutt vs Thibault Gouti

    FS1 7:00 pm ET
    Diego Ferreira vs Jared Gordon
    Brain Camozzi vs Geoff Neal
    Joby Sanchez vs Roberto Sanchez
    Sarah Moras vs Lucie Pudilova

    UFC Fight Pass 6:30 pm ET
    Humberto Bandenay vs Steven Peterson




  2. #2
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 4,795
    Betpoints: 2757

    Big bet on Cerrone ... think he wins this easily tbh hes better everywhere .. great price since hes been on a skid
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/10/2018

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  3. #3
    Hugo de Naranja
    Risk a Little, Win a Lot
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 7,987
    Betpoints: 6042

    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    Big bet on Cerrone ... think he wins this easily tbh hes better everywhere .. great price since hes been on a skid
    Yeah I think this is the fight where we figure out where Cerrone's at. Is it only on a skid because he's faced elite competition or is he truly done after a long career of wars.

  4. #4
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 4,795
    Betpoints: 2757

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Yeah I think this is the fight where we figure out where Cerrone's at. Is it only on a skid because he's faced elite competition or is he truly done after a long career of wars.
    Agreed, if he losses this fight its officially over for him.. I think Till is just an animal and is a TERRIBLE matchup for Cowboy
    Medeiros is slower and gets hit, Donald should tear this guy up
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/10/2018

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  5. #5
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 12,305
    Betpoints: 9106

    Man I hope cerrone wins as a huge fan of him. I'm a cowboy too so I like him a lot.

  6. #6
    Hugo de Naranja
    Risk a Little, Win a Lot
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 7,987
    Betpoints: 6042

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Man I hope cerrone wins as a huge fan of him. I'm a cowboy too so I like him a lot.
    I thought you were from Sweden or some shit

  7. #7
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 12,305
    Betpoints: 9106

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I thought you were from Sweden or some shit
    My grandparents are from sweden. My parents have a ranch in utah. I can even put horse shoes on horses.
    Points Awarded:

    Hugo de Naranja gave Demonata 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  8. #8
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 4,795
    Betpoints: 2757

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    My grandparents are from sweden. My parents have a ranch in utah. I can even put horse shoes on horses.
    change your avatar to alexander gustafsson !
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/10/2018

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  9. #9
    Hugo de Naranja
    Risk a Little, Win a Lot
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 7,987
    Betpoints: 6042

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    My grandparents are from sweden. My parents have a ranch in utah. I can even put horse shoes on horses.
    That explains your interest in the Jazz' games.

  10. #10
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 12,305
    Betpoints: 9106

    Quote Originally Posted by firekillex View Post
    change your avatar to alexander gustafsson !
    Haha i would but he's not my favorite of all time i might since gsp will probably take a million years to fight again.

  11. #11
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 12,305
    Betpoints: 9106

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    That explains your interest in the Jazz' games.
    Yeah man. I love them. I just am getting bored of utah though, nice to ride horses etc and good mma gym called absolute mma but no casinos and watered down alcohol. Can only bet online unless i go to wendover.

  12. #12
    TPowell
    TPowell's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 02-21-08
    Posts: 18,672
    Betpoints: 2227

    How does Cerrone win this fight? Yancy is so damn tough.

  13. #13
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 4,795
    Betpoints: 2757

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    How does Cerrone win this fight? Yancy is so damn tough.
    i think he could win by decision, tko/ko or submission tbh....
    i think hes better in every aspect of MMA then Meidoros other then toughness/chin and power strikes

    but technically Cowboy is much better and should light him up imo... im thinking round round 3 tko
    plus Meideros was just in a legit war against the lesser cowboy and was tagged/ hurt mulitiple times with a pretty fast turnaround
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/10/2018

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  14. #14
    Beelzebubzy
    Update your status
    Beelzebubzy's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 06-06-11
    Posts: 6,942
    Betpoints: 4072

    Cowboy just got lit up vs till
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/14/2018


  15. #15
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 4,795
    Betpoints: 2757

    Quote Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy View Post
    Cowboy just got lit up vs till
    cowboy fought in october in a 1 round fight

    meideros fought in december and got rocked 3+ times
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/10/2018

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  16. #16
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 609
    Betpoints: 1303

    I'm gonna be there boys!!! Glad they decided to come to Austin, hope that Yancy and Donald make it to fight night. Was pissed when they pulled the Borg fight but if thats all that doesn't materialize, I will be happy.

  17. #17
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 609
    Betpoints: 1303

    Quote Originally Posted by TPowell View Post
    How does Cerrone win this fight? Yancy is so damn tough.
    I would put Yancys chin as a top 5 right now, the man can take a shot. As tough as he is though, he does get hit a lot, and it worries me that he is due to get caught. If not this fight, than against a guy with more power (can you see him taking shots from Till, for example, and surviving?)

    Agree with Fire, Cowboy wins by outpointing him with his patented leg kicks and staying away from a brawl. He also needs to work on covering up the body better, I feel like he has Matt Brown Syndrome.

    If Yancy can hit him with a couple of combos down low, instead of going for the home run, i think he can put Cowboy away. It will be a battle of styles, will Cowboy win a technical fight or will Medeiros win a barn burner?

  18. #18
    firekillex
    firekillex's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-18-13
    Posts: 4,795
    Betpoints: 2757

    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    I would put Yancys chin as a top 5 right now, the man can take a shot. As tough as he is though, he does get hit a lot, and it worries me that he is due to get caught. If not this fight, than against a guy with more power (can you see him taking shots from Till, for example, and surviving?)

    Agree with Fire, Cowboy wins by outpointing him with his patented leg kicks and staying away from a brawl. He also needs to work on covering up the body better, I feel like he has Matt Brown Syndrome.

    If Yancy can hit him with a couple of combos down low, instead of going for the home run, i think he can put Cowboy away. It will be a battle of styles, will Cowboy win a technical fight or will Medeiros win a barn burner?
    agree Meideros is way to hittable , with a guy like cowboy that landes multiple strike combos hes going to get torn up , leg, body , head ... could see a nice rick story like finish for cowboy in this scrap
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 05/10/2018

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2018


  19. #19
    Richard Clock
    Richard Clock's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-18
    Posts: 358
    Betpoints: 124

    The Cerrone/Yancy line is recency bias/results bias at work. Yancy's stock is propped up by recent comeback wins over Erik Silva (who is 1-4 over his last 5) and Cowboy Oliveira, a fight in which he took a tremendous amount of damage. His other somewhat recent wins were over Sean Spencer (no longer in UFC), split decision over Makdessi (2-3 in his last 5), Proctor (1-3 in his last 4) and Damon Jackson (no longer in the UFC). The concerns about Cerrone are obvious, but seem to be already baked into this line. Do people forget that he lost a very competitive decision to Robbie Lawler just ~7 months ago? Cerrone still is significantly better than Yancy everywhere. I jumped on Cerrone at -135 on for a unit on 5D and line has since moved up to -155.

  20. #20
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 609
    Betpoints: 1303

    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Clock View Post
    The Cerrone/Yancy line is recency bias/results bias at work. Yancy's stock is propped up by recent comeback wins over Erik Silva (who is 1-4 over his last 5) and Cowboy Oliveira, a fight in which he took a tremendous amount of damage. His other somewhat recent wins were over Sean Spencer (no longer in UFC), split decision over Makdessi (2-3 in his last 5), Proctor (1-3 in his last 4) and Damon Jackson (no longer in the UFC). The concerns about Cerrone are obvious, but seem to be already baked into this line. Do people forget that he lost a very competitive decision to Robbie Lawler just ~7 months ago? Cerrone still is significantly better than Yancy everywhere. I jumped on Cerrone at -135 on for a unit on 5D and line has since moved up to -155.
    Love it, I went in early as well. I think Cowboy pick him apart.

  21. #21
    LONELYPALACE69
    LONELYPALACE69's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-18
    Posts: 21
    Betpoints: 15

    Interested to see the o/u for the Cowboy fight. Assuming they put it at 2.5, hoping to find decent +$ on the under.

    Very interested in Trinaldo and Gordon lines.

    Aside from that this is a largely no-play event for me most likely.

  22. #22
    Hugo de Naranja
    Risk a Little, Win a Lot
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 7,987
    Betpoints: 6042

    Quote Originally Posted by LONELYPALACE69 View Post
    Interested to see the o/u for the Cowboy fight. Assuming they put it at 2.5, hoping to find decent +$ on the under.

    Very interested in Trinaldo and Gordon lines.

    Aside from that this is a largely no-play event for me most likely.
    I think Trinaldo is out at around (+170).

  23. #23
    LONELYPALACE69
    LONELYPALACE69's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-10-18
    Posts: 21
    Betpoints: 15

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    I think Trinaldo is out at around (+170).
    Thanks for the heads up. Usually use my local but had to hop back on 5d for that one.

  24. #24
    Richard Clock
    Richard Clock's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-18
    Posts: 358
    Betpoints: 124

    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    Love it, I went in early as well. I think Cowboy pick him apart.
    Cheers bud

  25. #25
    Demonata
    Demonata's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-12-11
    Posts: 12,305
    Betpoints: 9106

    Tybura vs lewis is 50 50. Can't lean either way.

  26. #26
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 609
    Betpoints: 1303

    Quote Originally Posted by Demonata View Post
    Tybura vs lewis is 50 50. Can't lean either way.
    Looking at Lewis in 1st, if not I like Tybura to grind him out.

  27. #27
    Hugo de Naranja
    Risk a Little, Win a Lot
    Hugo de Naranja's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-14-16
    Posts: 7,987
    Betpoints: 6042

    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    Looking at Lewis in 1st, if not I like Tybura to grind him out.
    Seems like a good way to play it. Lewis is live against anyone since he's such a big puncher but not much of a roundwinner. Lewis will usually need a KO to win his fights. Would be good to see him develop some fundamentals since he threw all wacky shit in his last fight and it gassed him out.

  28. #28
    Richard Clock
    Richard Clock's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-18
    Posts: 358
    Betpoints: 124

    Quote Originally Posted by Beelzebubzy View Post
    Cowboy just got lit up vs till
    Yancy is not in the same universe skill-wise as Till

  29. #29
    HurlSweatPants
    HurlSweatPants's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-28-15
    Posts: 609
    Betpoints: 1303

    Quote Originally Posted by Hugo de Naranja View Post
    Seems like a good way to play it. Lewis is live against anyone since he's such a big puncher but not much of a roundwinner. Lewis will usually need a KO to win his fights. Would be good to see him develop some fundamentals since he threw all wacky shit in his last fight and it gassed him out.
    I follow Lewis quite a bit since we are from the same area. I am just not sure he is really in it anymore, he talked about retirement after the Hunt fight. The list is long of fighters who say they are going to hang it up and still come back, but it makes me wonder. I hope I am wrong I have always rooted for him. Let's be honest also, he was GIFTED the Nelson fight IMO. I think Nelson provided the blueprint to beat him, and that is get out of the 1st and wear on him.

  30. #30
    Richard Clock
    Richard Clock's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-18
    Posts: 358
    Betpoints: 124

    Quote Originally Posted by HurlSweatPants View Post
    I follow Lewis quite a bit since we are from the same area. I am just not sure he is really in it anymore, he talked about retirement after the Hunt fight. The list is long of fighters who say they are going to hang it up and still come back, but it makes me wonder. I hope I am wrong I have always rooted for him. Let's be honest also, he was GIFTED the Nelson fight IMO. I think Nelson provided the blueprint to beat him, and that is get out of the 1st and wear on him.
    Think I have to go back and watch the Lewis/Nelson fight and Tybura/Werdum to get a better feeling on this fight. Both fighters have a similiarly impressive resume of wins/losses. Keep in mind that Tybura has somewhat recent losses to Timothy Johnson, who is an average UFC HW and by a loss in M-1 by TKO (doctor's stoppage). I tend to think this fight should be a little closer to evens and that Lewis at +125 is reasonable. I am a little wary of Lewis' back issues which I will have to look into more.

  31. #31
    JC2008
    JC2008's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-27-08
    Posts: 1,766
    Betpoints: 379

    I like Lewis in his home state of Texas to get the win and probably by a nasty KO early. (i.e. bet Tybura).

  32. #32
    Thrilla
    Hillary my Queen
    Thrilla's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-10-15
    Posts: 2,809
    Betpoints: 4764


  33. #33
    JIBBBY
    JIBBBY's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-10-09
    Posts: 34,218
    Betpoints: 199

    So this got next.. I love the event's every weekend now.. Get right back on that horse!!!

    At a glance Black Beast may be a live dog. Not sure though... Depends on the Lewis training camp and his ailing back... Need to read up on his conditioning...

    I think you have to go with Cowboy even though his chin and confidence is shot right now.. This is a winnable fight for Donald Cowboy though... Odds aren't to bad at -145 either..

  34. #34
    turbozed
    turbozed's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-15-08
    Posts: 1,997
    Betpoints: 541

    Quote Originally Posted by Richard Clock View Post
    The Cerrone/Yancy line is recency bias/results bias at work. Yancy's stock is propped up by recent comeback wins over Erik Silva (who is 1-4 over his last 5) and Cowboy Oliveira, a fight in which he took a tremendous amount of damage. His other somewhat recent wins were over Sean Spencer (no longer in UFC), split decision over Makdessi (2-3 in his last 5), Proctor (1-3 in his last 4) and Damon Jackson (no longer in the UFC). The concerns about Cerrone are obvious, but seem to be already baked into this line. Do people forget that he lost a very competitive decision to Robbie Lawler just ~7 months ago? Cerrone still is significantly better than Yancy everywhere. I jumped on Cerrone at -135 on for a unit on 5D and line has since moved up to -155.
    Good application of cognitive bias analysis here. I've been reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" and considering making a crib sheet to run my thought processes and/or fighter prices through the more significant biases and to see how that pans out. I'll post it here once I make it (or maybe pull one from somewhere else) if anyone is interested.
    Points Awarded:

    Thrilla gave turbozed 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  35. #35
    Richard Clock
    Richard Clock's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-09-18
    Posts: 358
    Betpoints: 124

    Quote Originally Posted by turbozed View Post
    Good application of cognitive bias analysis here. I've been reading "Thinking Fast and Slow" and considering making a crib sheet to run my thought processes and/or fighter prices through the more significant biases and to see how that pans out. I'll post it here once I make it (or maybe pull one from somewhere else) if anyone is interested.
    I am interested to see your methodology and results of this. I constantly see biases born out in betting lines and some posters' handicapping of fights. A "breakdown" of Leech/Matthews I saw in one of the other threads was particularly shocking.

    I don't use a mathematical "system" or model to identify value in lines, I just look for the things that I consider most meaningful to profitability in gambling (I discuss some of them in my own bet thread), but I would definitely like to dabble in developing a more streamlined system to make my research/handicapping more efficient.

1234 ... Last
Top