Still don't know UFC, but i love this stuff

[statnerds]

after watching it on Spike, and seeing every huge fav winning in easy fashion, i took 5 huge favs last night and RR in 3's and 4's

St Pierre
Miller
Pellegrino
Fitch
Diaz

i don't know who any of those guys is, but they were all -290 or higher.

i read a lil bout Carwin v Mir, but was afraid to back Carwin. that would have been a juicy pay day.

also read an article where White was talking about the Spike events and he came off as sounding like it is just a venue for up and comers to beat down some tomato cans and get exposure.

[Lincoln73]

If you continue to only bag huge favorites across the board in UFC you will end up broke very soon.

[statnerds]

If you continue to only bag huge favorites across the board in UFC you will end up broke very soon.

i will take that under advisement sir, thank you.

but like i said, RR in 3's and 4's, so one huge upset would not break me. and the only reason i had to make them 3's and 4's instead of 2's and 3's was St Pierre being -700. BM had better odds but wouldn't allow me to parlay them.

all i know is since i started paying attention favs of -250 or more are 8-0. and of course upsets are bound to happen. going to read up on the 5 winners from last night and see if the fights were close or the faves blew them out. read that St Pierre absolutely dominated Hardy.

i think the real money will be on the Spike events.

[brooks85]

pellegrino was in trouble until he gave headspike to camoes. Camoes had kurts back, kurt was standing, and basically fell forward and camoes head went right into the mat and ko'd him for a second. After that camoes was hurt and kurt took over. In hindsight miller did the same thing too bocek and camoes knows he was supposed to tuck his chin but he didnt. Thats why his head got spiked.

Miller/bocek was very close also. Miller was way overpriced for what we paid and possibly won the fight in the final 5 seconds. Bocek had miller in a body triangle with one arm trapped for a good 1:30 mins in the second round, i was very nervous haha

[playa420]

i will take that under advisement sir, thank you.

but like i said, RR in 3's and 4's, so one huge upset would not break me. and the only reason i had to make them 3's and 4's instead of 2's and 3's was St Pierre being -700. BM had better odds but wouldn't allow me to parlay them.

all i know is since i started paying attention favs of -250 or more are 8-0. and of course upsets are bound to happen. going to read up on the 5 winners from last night and see if the fights were close or the faves blew them out. read that St Pierre absolutely dominated Hardy.

i think the real money will be on the Spike events.

be careful betting on big favs on the spike/fight night cards.Those cards have alot of unproven fighters and alot of guys from the reality tv show.

[cky312]

Miller/bocek was very close also. Miller was way overpriced for what we paid and possibly won the fight in the final 5 seconds. Bocek had miller in a body triangle with one arm trapped for a good 1:30 mins in the second round, i was very nervous haha

IMO that was straight robbery, Miller might have won first won but I didn't see anything that warranted a 10 for him in 2nd or 3rd.

Also, betting the favorite in MMA is a very dangerous proposition over the long term (ala GSP-Serra), unlike boxing, the "puncher's chance" variable is a lot bigger due to the size of the gloves. Plus, the multiple dynamics or stand up, ground game, and clinch work brings about a lot more things to consider than boxing where it's only hands.

[zigomanisinsider]

If you continue to only bag huge favorites across the board in UFC you will end up broke very soon.

tell me last time big fav lost

[statnerds]

5Dimes has the following for Spike on 3/31

• 3/31/2010 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1102 Kenny Florian* -290 vs Takanori Gomi
• 3/31/2010 8:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Roy Nelson* -325 vs Stefan Struve
• 3/31/2010 8:00 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Nate Quarry* -260 vs Jorge Rivera
• 3/31/2010 5:00 PM UFC Fighting 1502 Gleison Tibau* -270 vs Caol Uno
• 3/31/2010 5:00 PM UFC Fighting 1602 Yushin Okami* -500 vs Lucio Linhares

i left Pearson out at -190.

RR with 3's and 4's would take 1 upset to, depending on the upset, about break even and it would take 2 upsets to totally fukk up my night. i'm not doubting upsets happen in UFC, but until i see some evidence that happens more than once every 20 or 25 matches, i'll keep pressing this strategy.

other than Carwin, any dogs win at 111? i seriously don't know and that is why i am asking. cause we can say betting huge favs will kill us in the long run, but until it is proven, how do we know? and the lines are that high because people are betting the favs big?

[statnerds]

tell me last time big fav lost

i was reading some article about huge favs in UFC and it had Thiago Tavares losing as a -405 fav to Matt Wiman at UFC 85.

can anyone confirm that

a. that happened

and

b. Tavares was a huge fav

[Vaughany]

tell me last time big fav lost

Depends how you define 'big fav' but Stephenson lost to Sotiropolous and biggest was Marquadt losing to Sonnen. Probly only 10-20% picked Sonnen in tht one.

[36mafia]

Depends how you define 'big fav' but Stephenson lost to Sotiropolous and biggest was Marquadt losing to Sonnen. Probly only 10-20% picked Sonnen in tht one.

thats the most recent one i remember. lines were around +/-350

[statnerds]

• 3/31/2010 9:30 PM UFC Fighting 1102 Kenny Florian* -290 vs Takanori Gomi W
• 3/31/2010 8:00 PM UFC Fighting 1202 Roy Nelson* -325 vs Stefan Struve W
• 3/31/2010 8:00 PM UFC Fighting 1302 Nate Quarry* -260 vs Jorge Rivera L
• 3/31/2010 5:00 PM UFC Fighting 1502 Gleison Tibau* -270 vs Caol Uno W
• 3/31/2010 5:00 PM UFC Fighting 1602 Yushin Okami* -500 vs Lucio Linhares W

I won $3 on my RRs tonight.