Strategy with Mir-Carwin prop bet (and other parlays)

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  • Educ8d Degener8
    SBR MVP
    • 01-12-10
    • 3177
    #1
    Strategy with Mir-Carwin prop bet (and other parlays)
    Prop bet: Mir vs Carwin will not go to decision (-900)

    Carwin: 11 fights, 0 decisions
    Mir: 17 fights, 2 decisions; last decision was in 2006
    2 decisions in 28 fights = 7% occurrence

    Add in the fact, this is a 5 rounder...

    Ok, so you can chalk it by pairing it with GSP (-800), Penn (-800), Silva (-620) and potentially the Josh Barnett line (when it opens).

    Considering some less chalky options as well -- JDS, Guida, Palhares, Pearson... Lots of parlay options with the slew of UFC events in the coming weeks. Trying to capitalize on any lines I see value in.

    Let's cash in fellas.

    ED
    Tags: None
    • 36mafia
      Restricted User
      • 11-08-09
      • 2389
      #2
      theres no way in hell the match is going the distance. but +130 on carwin looks really good on the eyes though
        Comment
        • brooks85
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 01-05-09
          • 44709
          #3
          thats a great bet and very good parlay material. Like 36 is saying, that fight fight is not going 25 mins.

          Im looking at Frank-shane wont go 5/GSP/Miller/ and waiting for some more lines.
            Comment
            • Educ8d Degener8
              SBR MVP
              • 01-12-10
              • 3177
              #4
              As square as it is, I'm leaning towards Mir-Carwin does not go to decision, GSP, Penn, Silva. $100 pays $63. I slept on making the call prior to the Barnett fight which would've payed $78 for a $100 bet.

              On a separate note:
              Still loving the Palhares odds. Re-watched his fight with Hendo recently, and Palhares has a granite chin. He ate a bunch of Henderson shots. I still gotta review Drwal fights...
                Comment
                • Kaladarus
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-11-09
                  • 1876
                  #5
                  Originally posted by Educ8d Degener8
                  As square as it is, I'm leaning towards Mir-Carwin does not go to decision, GSP, Penn, Silva. $100 pays $63. I slept on making the call prior to the Barnett fight which would've payed $78 for a $100 bet.

                  On a separate note:
                  Still loving the Palhares odds. Re-watched his fight with Hendo recently, and Palhares has a granite chin. He ate a bunch of Henderson shots. I still gotta review Drwal fights...
                  Thats a good bet for sure.
                    Comment
                    • Educ8d Degener8
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-12-10
                      • 3177
                      #6
                      Holly hell, this prop moved to -1500... and being a procrastinator, I hadn't placed my bet... adds no significant value to my parlay anymore, so removing...

                      Sharps must've pounded the line...
                        Comment
                        • Kaladarus
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-11-09
                          • 1876
                          #7
                          only like -822 on pinnacle still
                            Comment
                            • MAESTRO1
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 01-31-10
                              • 141
                              #8
                              Easiest bet ever what a fast fight
                              sbr
                                Comment
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