What % do you think Nog subs Cain?

[terpkeg]

Having trouble putting a % on this. I know Cain is a freak athlete, has great balance and top control and was very successful quickly in submission grappling tourneys. But dealing with Nog on the ground is a whole different animal.

Just looking for some opinions here.

[teaserpleaser]

cain will be too fast for nog, when cain gets his takedowns ive only seen him fall into half guard i dont think that is luck.... nogs mma is very good but if you notice his subs from guard are all set up with double wrist control, thats old school good luck catching cain with dwc. camarillo will have him ready for subs i really think cain is going to win this one going away if not tko ref stop nog. gl

[teaserpleaser]

to answer your question nog would have to get top control of cain or hurt him bad then get the sub... i cant see nog hitting that same half guard sweep on cains wrestling base its just too good imo he would have to drop cain and get top control... like most elite wrestlers im betting cains crap off his back.

[RobbReport]

over 50%

[RobbReport]

people forget how big Nog is and how hard he hits. one mistake and he can just end it on the spot with a sub.

[MickChunky]

people forget how big Nog is and how hard he hits. one mistake and he can just end it on the spot with a sub.

I hope you're right

[RobbReport]

he'll see how hard it is to take Nog down.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

very interested to see how this fight plays out, i'm taking Velasquez, so i put it at 13% Nog pulls the sub

[Eccocide]

Hard to say just based on the fact that Cain hasn't been in any positions yet where submission attempts have been made against him. He hasn't fought anyone with submissions yet, so this is a totally different style of fighter he will be fighting. He does seem to be active from the top, but I don't think that works to his advantage. The more moving parts, the more chances for Nog to grab ahold of a limb. I personally think this fight will take place more on the feet than on the ground, but I'd say somewhere around 30%.

[teaserpleaser]

people forget how big Nog is and how hard he hits. one mistake and he can just end it on the spot with a sub.

hes 6-3 -235 ish if hes in good shape about the same size as cain hes just an inch or two taller. we must be watching a different nog because he lacks punching power imo he has 1 ko and two tkos in 38 fights. i think he stunned randy but shit who doesnt stun handy these days? ( besides coleman) good boxing not much power for a heavy imo. doubt big nog hits harder then kongo cain ate stunners and kept pushing.

[teaserpleaser]

he'll see how hard it is to take Nog down.

nog would love nothing better then to be on his back... even if nog could stuff cains takedowns (which i doubt) he would pull guard at some point he does it in damn near all his fights. nog will be doing his normal butt scoot routine.

[terpkeg]

tend to think that he will be very prepared and very cautious on the ground, not putting himself in too many dangerous postions. like someone said above, cain's base should prevent sweeps form bottom. i think his control and athleticism will help him avoid scrambles where nog can take advantage and snatch a sub.

i see a ko/tko less than 10% of time in this fight. both guys recover well, have good chins and seem to lack KO power for heavyweights.

going to make a play on fight going to decision at -125 (5dimes). factoring in injuries/dq i see no finish more than 65% of time.

[Pride>UFC]

Nog wins by submission 25%
Cain wins by TKO 30%
Nog wins decision 10%
Cain wins decision 35%

I think Cain's too young and explosive. But Nog definitely has a decent chance

[terpkeg]

Nog wins by submission 25%
Cain wins by TKO 30%
Nog wins decision 10%
Cain wins decision 35%

I think Cain's too young and explosive. But Nog definitely has a decent chance

Cain has not finished with devestating power in any of his UFC fights and I think Nog's submission offense from his back will cause Cain to be more conservative on top. I think there is a good chance that both of their strengths will neutralize each other on the ground.

[teaserpleaser]

^^^ until now just too fast for nog

[teaserpleaser]

congrats on your win Terpkeg

[terpkeg]

tend to think that he will be very prepared and very cautious on the ground, not putting himself in too many dangerous postions. like someone said above, cain's base should prevent sweeps form bottom. i think his control and athleticism will help him avoid scrambles where nog can take advantage and snatch a sub.

i see a ko/tko less than 10% of time in this fight. both guys recover well, have good chins and seem to lack KO power for heavyweights.

going to make a play on fight going to decision at -125 (5dimes). factoring in injuries/dq i see no finish more than 65% of time.

Could not have been more wrong. Underestimated Cain's power, his standup looked great. Good chance he gets Lesner next as it will be a quick turnaround for Mir/Carwin winner.