Paulo Thiago (+190) risking 2 Units
Not only is Paulo Thiago a Martial Artist, but he's also a member of the BOPE in his home country of Brazil. For those of you not familiar with it, it's an elite Special Forces police unit based out of Brasilia, Brazil. BOPE units have extensive experience in urban warfare, and it's believed to be one of the most efficient military forces in the world. Simply put...Paulo Thiago is bad ass mother****er. His Brazilian Jiu Jitsu is arguably the best at welterweight, and he has very solid knockout power. Mike Swick has never faced someone with Thiago's ground skills in his career, and it will be interesting to see how he handles that. My bet is that he tries to stand and bang, but that won't be a favorable option for him, IMO. Not only does this play have substantial value according to my line (Had Thiago at -115), but Thiago takes this fight rather easily.
Dan Miller (+320) risking 1 Unit
This is my value play of the night. Was expecting this fight to be around -250, but the books surprised me by making Maia this high of a favorite. Don't get me wrong, I know Maia's submission skills are nothing short of amazing, but Jersey boy Dan Miller, is no slouch on the ground in his own right. He also possesses excellent submission defense skills. If he can manage to work his wrestling, land some nice shots, and avoid getting tapped, it could definitely be a long fight for Maia.
Matt Serra (-140) for 1 Unit
This fight is a little tricky. Neither of these fighters will return to their glory days, just a few short years ago. However, I feel both guys are true fighters, and will definitely be bringing their "A-Game" Saturday night. Breaking down each fighter...Serra definitely has the better standup. He trained boxing under the legendary Ray Longo for years. He also has world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Trigg's not a slouch either in the cage, but I really struggle to see how he will be able to contend in this fight. He's not better than Serra on his feet, or on the ground. He doesn't have much punching power, so I can't see him landing the KO punch, and the best part of Serra's BJJ game is keeping position, and avoiding submissions. I'm going to call Serra by his own submission mid-way through the 2nd round.
3 Fight Parlay (-112) for 2 Units
Couture (-410)
Marquardt (-390)
Gracie (-475)
The Couture/Coleman fight will pit together two of the greatest wrestlers that have ever stepped in a cage. If this fight was in Coleman’s prime, I would've been all over him. While many people say the odds are wayyy too high for this fight nowadays, I think they're pretty spot on. Coleman has never been great at saving his gas, he's always been the emotional fighter that gives it his all. While that's usually a great theory for a wrestler with heavy hands, at this late stage in his career, I really feel his lack of cardio brings on his demise. Randy can outlast the young guys, and would even prefer a 5 round war. As crazy as it sounds, I could see Randy KOing Coleman later in the fight.
Nate Marquardt is going against Chael Sonnen, and both fighters are definitely looking to put on a big show for Dana White. While Sonnen isn't really known for much other than his wrestling, Marquardt is probably one of the most well-rounded fighters in UFC. I really thing this comes down to fight strategy. You know Marquardt has definitely worked on his sprawl, and will try to avoid being "hugged" all night long. I'm very confident Nate's camp (Greg Jackson), will provide the better fighter with the best strategy to win this fight.
Rolles Gracie has only fought MMA 3 times professionally, but at 31 years old is no stranger to fighting. He's spawned from the legendary Gracie family, and is the son of one of the pioneers of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He's also an ADCC silver medalist. Rolles' opponent, Mustapha Al-Turk is primarily a grappler in his own right, but has nowhere near the skills to even compete in this fight. His only shot is to keep the fight standing, but with the lack of a good standup game, this fight will eventually wind up on the ground, and it will quickly come down to 3 choices for Al-Turk…tap, nap, or snap.
Not only is Paulo Thiago a Martial Artist, but he's also a member of the BOPE in his home country of Brazil. For those of you not familiar with it, it's an elite Special Forces police unit based out of Brasilia, Brazil. BOPE units have extensive experience in urban warfare, and it's believed to be one of the most efficient military forces in the world. Simply put...Paulo Thiago is bad ass mother****er. His Brazilian Jiu Jitsu is arguably the best at welterweight, and he has very solid knockout power. Mike Swick has never faced someone with Thiago's ground skills in his career, and it will be interesting to see how he handles that. My bet is that he tries to stand and bang, but that won't be a favorable option for him, IMO. Not only does this play have substantial value according to my line (Had Thiago at -115), but Thiago takes this fight rather easily.
Dan Miller (+320) risking 1 Unit
This is my value play of the night. Was expecting this fight to be around -250, but the books surprised me by making Maia this high of a favorite. Don't get me wrong, I know Maia's submission skills are nothing short of amazing, but Jersey boy Dan Miller, is no slouch on the ground in his own right. He also possesses excellent submission defense skills. If he can manage to work his wrestling, land some nice shots, and avoid getting tapped, it could definitely be a long fight for Maia.
Matt Serra (-140) for 1 Unit
This fight is a little tricky. Neither of these fighters will return to their glory days, just a few short years ago. However, I feel both guys are true fighters, and will definitely be bringing their "A-Game" Saturday night. Breaking down each fighter...Serra definitely has the better standup. He trained boxing under the legendary Ray Longo for years. He also has world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Trigg's not a slouch either in the cage, but I really struggle to see how he will be able to contend in this fight. He's not better than Serra on his feet, or on the ground. He doesn't have much punching power, so I can't see him landing the KO punch, and the best part of Serra's BJJ game is keeping position, and avoiding submissions. I'm going to call Serra by his own submission mid-way through the 2nd round.
3 Fight Parlay (-112) for 2 Units
Couture (-410)
Marquardt (-390)
Gracie (-475)
The Couture/Coleman fight will pit together two of the greatest wrestlers that have ever stepped in a cage. If this fight was in Coleman’s prime, I would've been all over him. While many people say the odds are wayyy too high for this fight nowadays, I think they're pretty spot on. Coleman has never been great at saving his gas, he's always been the emotional fighter that gives it his all. While that's usually a great theory for a wrestler with heavy hands, at this late stage in his career, I really feel his lack of cardio brings on his demise. Randy can outlast the young guys, and would even prefer a 5 round war. As crazy as it sounds, I could see Randy KOing Coleman later in the fight.
Nate Marquardt is going against Chael Sonnen, and both fighters are definitely looking to put on a big show for Dana White. While Sonnen isn't really known for much other than his wrestling, Marquardt is probably one of the most well-rounded fighters in UFC. I really thing this comes down to fight strategy. You know Marquardt has definitely worked on his sprawl, and will try to avoid being "hugged" all night long. I'm very confident Nate's camp (Greg Jackson), will provide the better fighter with the best strategy to win this fight.
Rolles Gracie has only fought MMA 3 times professionally, but at 31 years old is no stranger to fighting. He's spawned from the legendary Gracie family, and is the son of one of the pioneers of Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He's also an ADCC silver medalist. Rolles' opponent, Mustapha Al-Turk is primarily a grappler in his own right, but has nowhere near the skills to even compete in this fight. His only shot is to keep the fight standing, but with the lack of a good standup game, this fight will eventually wind up on the ground, and it will quickly come down to 3 choices for Al-Turk…tap, nap, or snap.