Another free MMA event…how can I complain? Not only that but since Canada is so much better than the US, I get to watch this live at 3pm!! Sorry Americans but you know it’s true. Onto the fights.
Old Man Moses is back in the LHW division and MAN did it he look absolutely shredded at the weigh-ins!! How on earth anyone looks in that good of shape at the ripe age of 46 is beyond me. Couture’s welcoming back fight is Muay-Thai specialist Brandon Vera who possesses probably some of the most devastating leg kicks in MMA. The guy looks so malnourished half the time I’m surprised his legs don’t snap like Corey Hill’s did….wait bad image in my head there…god was that gruesome.
Just so I don't have to suffer alone!
Anyways, Vera will obviously want to keep this fight standing, using his size and reach to his advantage while avoiding Couture’s takedowns and vicious GnP. Recently, especially since moving down to LHW, Vera hasn’t had the same power he possessed when fighting up at heavyweight. Other than stopping Mike Patt with the previously mentioned leg-kicks he’s put in less-than-stellar performances in wins against Soszynski and Reese Andy and his loss to Jardine. He also seems to me more cautious with his striking and I think this will cause him problems in this fight. Any hesitation to let it go standing will give Randy openings to get inside and push Vera up against the cage. From there I don’t see Randy having any issues getting Vera to the ground. Vera has a solid wrestling background but it isn’t anything that will nullify Randy’s attack. If Randy was able to pick up guys like Gonzaga and dump them on their backs, Vera’s toothpick frame shouldn’t give him problems. I think this fight could go either way, but I’ll take the mastermind with tons of experience over the guy who has never reached his potential.
Ahhh just hearing the name Michael Bisping makes me think back to his epic destruction against Dan Henderson. It was such a beautiful thing that if it would have been the last MMA fight I ever saw, I would’ve died a happy man. This time around he’s facing Dennis Kang – a highly talented fighter who just happens to phase out into a dreamland in the middle of fights. I don’t see that happening this time around as Kang seems…let me repeat, seems to have gotten his head back into fighting. He’s back training at ATT and I believe they will have him extremely prepared for this fight. I think Kang has the advantage in most facets of this fight. He’s an amazing grappler and a black belt in BJJ (him jumping into a guillotine versus Alan Belcher says otherwise but I digress). If he can get this fight to the ground he should have no problem out-transitioning his way to either a submission or decision. On the feet, I still feel like he doesn’t have all that much to worry about. He has solid standup and he won’t have to worry about Bisping’s girly jabs knocking him out. Henderson did the world a large favour by exposing how over-hyped Bisping really is/was. His best win at 185lb was against an out-of-shape Chris Leben. Before that, his best win was a fight he actually lost against Matt Hamill. Kang will close the doors on any smidget of hype still oozing from the Bisping bandwagon.
I have to admit Hardy has grown on me a little bit over his last couple fights. I really couldn’t stand the guy….from his silly outlaw-bandana entrance to his retarded Mohawk to his annoying accent. But at least he backs up his talk with some punches to your grill. I think he may be in over his head this time though. Swick could have already earned his title shot by now if Josh Koscheck didn’t drop him on his head during his training for the Martin Kampmann fight. I don’t think Swick will let this opportunity pass him by. Swick showed that he can follow a good gameplan in his last fight versus Ben Saunders. A lot of people thought he would try to use his speed and stand and bang with Ben, but he did the smarter thing and took the fight to the ground where he could use his superior wrestling and ground-and-pound. I think this fight will be more of the same. Swick should hold a definitive advantage on the ground and I expect that’s where he will take the fight. Hardy no doubt has solid standup. He is a great counter puncher with good power, but I think he will get off-balance while back-pedaling looking for the counter punch which will allow Swick to use his jab and handspeed to transition into a takedown. I’m not sure if he will be able to finish Hardy, but I expect a victory either way.
Wilks impressed me so much in his TUF finale fight against DeMarques Johnson that I was actually embarrassed to have put my money on Johnson. His transitions on the ground were top notch and he never let up even when he couldn’t sink in his first couple submission attempts. He finds himself taking on a tough first opponent in brawling journeyman Matt Brown. First I gotta say Brown has some really horrible tattoos. The word ‘Immortal’ across his stomach, some kind of flaming sun right above his belly button and then ever-so-unique armband….these alone want to make me bet against the guy, and that I will.
Time to get a new artist
Brown is pretty much a one-dimensional slugger who wants to stand and trade. He has a lot of power in his hands, but his technique is lacking and he relies too much on looping haymakers to lay out opponents. There’s no doubt that Wilks has the better grappling and ground game. If he can get this fight to the ground I see him pulling off a submission fairly easily. I also think he has enough speed and technique to handle himself standing, although I’m hoping he doesn’t go out there trying to prove that he has more cajonas by just standing and banging. I’ll take my chances with the dog in this one.
I’ll keep this short and simple: Riddle looks like a genetic freak with zero percent body fat and that alone will keep me from betting against him. However, the real reason why I like him a lot in this match up is that he will use his wrestling and dominant top control to smother Nick for the entire 15 minutes. As long as Riddle doesn’t get too lackadaisical in Nick’s guard he should be able to avoid any desperation submission attempts.
I don’t see where Etim can lose this fight other than getting sloppy and falling into a submission on the ground. Gugerty has excellent jiu-jitsu but Etim is no slouch on the ground either. Etim has substantially better stand up and he should be able to use his reach to his advantage. As long as Etim can avoid getting taken down over and over again, I see him winning this fight by TKO.
Another Parlay:
That’s all I have for now. Hopefully most of these fights don’t go to a decision because I have had absolutely no luck with those as of late!
Brandon Vera vs. Randy Couture
Old Man Moses is back in the LHW division and MAN did it he look absolutely shredded at the weigh-ins!! How on earth anyone looks in that good of shape at the ripe age of 46 is beyond me. Couture’s welcoming back fight is Muay-Thai specialist Brandon Vera who possesses probably some of the most devastating leg kicks in MMA. The guy looks so malnourished half the time I’m surprised his legs don’t snap like Corey Hill’s did….wait bad image in my head there…god was that gruesome.
Just so I don't have to suffer alone!
Anyways, Vera will obviously want to keep this fight standing, using his size and reach to his advantage while avoiding Couture’s takedowns and vicious GnP. Recently, especially since moving down to LHW, Vera hasn’t had the same power he possessed when fighting up at heavyweight. Other than stopping Mike Patt with the previously mentioned leg-kicks he’s put in less-than-stellar performances in wins against Soszynski and Reese Andy and his loss to Jardine. He also seems to me more cautious with his striking and I think this will cause him problems in this fight. Any hesitation to let it go standing will give Randy openings to get inside and push Vera up against the cage. From there I don’t see Randy having any issues getting Vera to the ground. Vera has a solid wrestling background but it isn’t anything that will nullify Randy’s attack. If Randy was able to pick up guys like Gonzaga and dump them on their backs, Vera’s toothpick frame shouldn’t give him problems. I think this fight could go either way, but I’ll take the mastermind with tons of experience over the guy who has never reached his potential.
My Pick: Randy Couture (+100) 1 unit to win 1 unit
Dennis Kang vs. Michael Bisping
Ahhh just hearing the name Michael Bisping makes me think back to his epic destruction against Dan Henderson. It was such a beautiful thing that if it would have been the last MMA fight I ever saw, I would’ve died a happy man. This time around he’s facing Dennis Kang – a highly talented fighter who just happens to phase out into a dreamland in the middle of fights. I don’t see that happening this time around as Kang seems…let me repeat, seems to have gotten his head back into fighting. He’s back training at ATT and I believe they will have him extremely prepared for this fight. I think Kang has the advantage in most facets of this fight. He’s an amazing grappler and a black belt in BJJ (him jumping into a guillotine versus Alan Belcher says otherwise but I digress). If he can get this fight to the ground he should have no problem out-transitioning his way to either a submission or decision. On the feet, I still feel like he doesn’t have all that much to worry about. He has solid standup and he won’t have to worry about Bisping’s girly jabs knocking him out. Henderson did the world a large favour by exposing how over-hyped Bisping really is/was. His best win at 185lb was against an out-of-shape Chris Leben. Before that, his best win was a fight he actually lost against Matt Hamill. Kang will close the doors on any smidget of hype still oozing from the Bisping bandwagon.
More of this please.
My Pick: Dennis Kang (-111) 2.22 units to win 2 units
Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy
I have to admit Hardy has grown on me a little bit over his last couple fights. I really couldn’t stand the guy….from his silly outlaw-bandana entrance to his retarded Mohawk to his annoying accent. But at least he backs up his talk with some punches to your grill. I think he may be in over his head this time though. Swick could have already earned his title shot by now if Josh Koscheck didn’t drop him on his head during his training for the Martin Kampmann fight. I don’t think Swick will let this opportunity pass him by. Swick showed that he can follow a good gameplan in his last fight versus Ben Saunders. A lot of people thought he would try to use his speed and stand and bang with Ben, but he did the smarter thing and took the fight to the ground where he could use his superior wrestling and ground-and-pound. I think this fight will be more of the same. Swick should hold a definitive advantage on the ground and I expect that’s where he will take the fight. Hardy no doubt has solid standup. He is a great counter puncher with good power, but I think he will get off-balance while back-pedaling looking for the counter punch which will allow Swick to use his jab and handspeed to transition into a takedown. I’m not sure if he will be able to finish Hardy, but I expect a victory either way.
My Pick: Mike Swick (-225) 2.25 units to win 1 unit
James Wilks vs. Matt Brown
Wilks impressed me so much in his TUF finale fight against DeMarques Johnson that I was actually embarrassed to have put my money on Johnson. His transitions on the ground were top notch and he never let up even when he couldn’t sink in his first couple submission attempts. He finds himself taking on a tough first opponent in brawling journeyman Matt Brown. First I gotta say Brown has some really horrible tattoos. The word ‘Immortal’ across his stomach, some kind of flaming sun right above his belly button and then ever-so-unique armband….these alone want to make me bet against the guy, and that I will.
Time to get a new artist
Brown is pretty much a one-dimensional slugger who wants to stand and trade. He has a lot of power in his hands, but his technique is lacking and he relies too much on looping haymakers to lay out opponents. There’s no doubt that Wilks has the better grappling and ground game. If he can get this fight to the ground I see him pulling off a submission fairly easily. I also think he has enough speed and technique to handle himself standing, although I’m hoping he doesn’t go out there trying to prove that he has more cajonas by just standing and banging. I’ll take my chances with the dog in this one.
My Pick: James Wilks (+148) 1.5 units to win 2.22 units
Matt Riddle vs. Nick Osipczak
I’ll keep this short and simple: Riddle looks like a genetic freak with zero percent body fat and that alone will keep me from betting against him. However, the real reason why I like him a lot in this match up is that he will use his wrestling and dominant top control to smother Nick for the entire 15 minutes. As long as Riddle doesn’t get too lackadaisical in Nick’s guard he should be able to avoid any desperation submission attempts.
Terry Etim vs. Shannon Gugerty
I don’t see where Etim can lose this fight other than getting sloppy and falling into a submission on the ground. Gugerty has excellent jiu-jitsu but Etim is no slouch on the ground either. Etim has substantially better stand up and he should be able to use his reach to his advantage. As long as Etim can avoid getting taken down over and over again, I see him winning this fight by TKO.
My Pick: 2 Fight Parlay – Riddle/Etim (-152) 3 units to win 1.96 units
Another Parlay:
2 Fight Parlay – Riddle/Swick (-117) 2 units to win 1.7 units
That’s all I have for now. Hopefully most of these fights don’t go to a decision because I have had absolutely no luck with those as of late!