So it is time. Time for the streak to come to an end. I haven’t lost units on a UFC PPV since UFC 93 when I lost 2 split decisions and Kang dove into a guillotine vs. Belcher. Mind you, I have been horrible at TUF/UFN cards but let’s just forget about that! I find this card is prolly one of the weakest cards in a while from a betting perspective. I’m not one to lay heavy juice, and there are not a lot of dogs I like on this card….but if there are fights there must be bets! Let it be known that I have warned you in advance…this could get ugly.
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Lyoto Machida
Since UFC 70 when Machida first made a main card appearance in the UFC, my friends have asked me “How does he do that – how is he like the matrix and never gets hit?” and my response has always been “He is from the future, there is no other explanation”. They would always say I’m part-retarded and talking a bunch of lies of him being from the future – They laughed! Well that all changed after his last fight versus Rashad….when they saw the devastation, and took in the power of the stanky leg, they knew it was true – he IS from the future.
This fight is definitely one of my favourite and most hated matchups to date. These are two guys that I have been a huge fan of for a long time, and it sucks that one has to lose. When I broke down this fight, I tried to keep my blatant Shogun nuthugging out of it, but I don’t think I got the job done – yes I’m picking him to win. No you didn’t read that incorrectly, your eyes are fine. Yes, I am betting against the man from the future. It’s tough to try and break down a fight with a guy like Machida who has shown little to no weaknesses in the cage. But I think there are some areas where Shogun can give Machida problems. First, Shogun is the most diverse fighter Machida has faced – he can fight anywhere the match goes. He isn’t the most technical fighter in the standup game, but he is very dynamic and it is hard to predict what he will do. I feel his best strengths in this fight will be his clinch and his ground game. As everyone knows, Machida loves to counter, and when he feels he has a fighter hurt he moves in for the kill. However, Shogun has an amazing chin and is extremely durable. I think he can lure Machida to come in and use his excellent clinch game and dirty boxing to do some damage. As well, I think he can use the clinch to set up a takedown. I personally believe Shogun can win this fight if it goes to the ground. His GnP is as good as it gets, and even though we haven’t seen much of Machida’s Jiu-Jitsu (he’s a black belt), I still think Shogun has the advantage in this area especially when it comes to MMA, mostly due to his positioning and control. There are a lot of things Shogun will have to do perfectly to win this fight, but I think it will be more competitive than some people are thinking. Plus, I don’t think I will ever find Shogun at these odds again, so it was just too good to pass up.
My Pick: Shogun Rua 1.5 Units (+365) to win 5.475 units
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
This won’t be a very popular pick and to tell you the truth, it’s more of a shot in the dark than it is me thinking it is some sort of lock. We know Brown Pride wants to get this fight to the ground and he has all the skills to do that. He obviously has top-notch wrestling and Rothwell has decent takedown defense but it is nothing to brag about. However, I’m not sure if Cain will be able to keep it on the ground. Rothwell is no slouch on the mat and he will be much more prepared to cage-walk his way back to the standup than any of Cain’s previous opponents. Could Cain just keep dropping him on his back? Maybe, but Ben is a big boy and I think by using both his size and experience he will be able to keep/get this fight back to standing more often than not. Rothwell has bricks for hands and his kickboxing is a couple levels about what Cain has to offer right now. Not only that, but Cain and his team sounded pretty disappointed in his standup performance against Kongo and he may try to prove the naysayers wrong even though it may be a big mistake. Cain hasn’t done enough yet in his career for me to believe that he should be this big of a favourite against a guy of Rothwell’s caliber. If someone held a gun to my head and said choose a winner I would have to go with Velasquez. Thankfully that isn’t the situation and I will go with the angry and tortured youth to come out with something to prove.
My Pick: Ben Rothwell (+275) 0.5 Units to win 1.375 Units
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
Ironic quote of the month: Thoughts on opponent, Yushin Okami?He's a step in the wrong direction. Unmarketable. Not pleasing to watch and a horrible interview.
Well if that isn’t the kettle calling the coffee….wait…tea calling the coffee kettle…..well you know what I’m trying to say! If there’s one guy I enjoy watching less than Yushin Okami it’s Sonnen. He did absolutely nothing other than wrestle his last opponent to the ground and lay on him for 15 minutes…It’s a good thing that fight was followed up by McFedries knocking Pokam’s head off or I might not have made it to the main event. I don’t see where Sonnen can win this fight. He’s known for his agonizingly painful wrestling displays but this will be the first opponent he’s faced that matches him in that category and I actually think Okami’s wrestling is better adapted for MMA. Usually when you see contests like this where two wrestlers cancel each other out, it ends up in a stand-up war and there is no doubt in my mind that Okami will handle Sonnen with ease in that regard. He has better technique, more power, faster hands and a better clinch. The only thing that worries me is that Okami hasn’t fought since last December due to injuries, but it doesn’t worry me all that much.
My Pick: Yushin Okami (-220) 2.25 units to win 1.02 units
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
This one is pretty simple. The red-headed stepchild isn’t winning this one. Schafer has made me some money in the past using his slick Jiu-Jitsu skills to pull off some upsets but he won’t have that chance this time as he will be too worried about the permanent damage being done to his face either standing or due to GnP. Bader is a beast who is ready to explode out of his shell and I think this will be the fight to push him up into the upper-echelon of the division with a dominating performance. If he would only change his nickname to ‘Master’ I could die a happy man. Could you imagine a Buffer 180 to the likes of "Ryyyyyyyaaaaaaannnnnn 'Masssssssttttttterrrrr' Baaaaaaaaaaadeeeeeerrrrrrrrrr". Ahhh sweet music to my ears. Bader by mammoth fists through skull.
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
This is another fight that I think will be fairly one-sided. I know some people are worried about the ridiculous weight-cut that Johnson is doing to get down to 170lbs. However, he’s pretty used to this due to his wrestling background – maybe not to this extent as he is still growing, but I think he knows what he’s doing. Plus I don’t expect this fight to last long enough for his cardio to come into play. Johnson will have the advantage in both the standup and the ground game. Yoshida is a great Judoka but he will be extremely undersized and he won’t have enough power to get top control over Johnson. I expect this one to be over before the end of the second round with Johnson winning by referee stoppage. Yoshida won’t be looking too pretty at the end of this one. Blood, guts and gore for the win – just in time for Halloween.
My Pick: 2 fight parlay – Ryan Bader/Anthony Johnson (-150) 3.5 units to win 2.345 units.
So there we have it. I may add another play on the Hardonk/Barry fight but I’m not ready to commit yet. As well, I will most likely add some bangers after the weigh-ins tomorrow.
Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Lyoto Machida
Since UFC 70 when Machida first made a main card appearance in the UFC, my friends have asked me “How does he do that – how is he like the matrix and never gets hit?” and my response has always been “He is from the future, there is no other explanation”. They would always say I’m part-retarded and talking a bunch of lies of him being from the future – They laughed! Well that all changed after his last fight versus Rashad….when they saw the devastation, and took in the power of the stanky leg, they knew it was true – he IS from the future.
Shogun will put up more of a fight than this!!
This fight is definitely one of my favourite and most hated matchups to date. These are two guys that I have been a huge fan of for a long time, and it sucks that one has to lose. When I broke down this fight, I tried to keep my blatant Shogun nuthugging out of it, but I don’t think I got the job done – yes I’m picking him to win. No you didn’t read that incorrectly, your eyes are fine. Yes, I am betting against the man from the future. It’s tough to try and break down a fight with a guy like Machida who has shown little to no weaknesses in the cage. But I think there are some areas where Shogun can give Machida problems. First, Shogun is the most diverse fighter Machida has faced – he can fight anywhere the match goes. He isn’t the most technical fighter in the standup game, but he is very dynamic and it is hard to predict what he will do. I feel his best strengths in this fight will be his clinch and his ground game. As everyone knows, Machida loves to counter, and when he feels he has a fighter hurt he moves in for the kill. However, Shogun has an amazing chin and is extremely durable. I think he can lure Machida to come in and use his excellent clinch game and dirty boxing to do some damage. As well, I think he can use the clinch to set up a takedown. I personally believe Shogun can win this fight if it goes to the ground. His GnP is as good as it gets, and even though we haven’t seen much of Machida’s Jiu-Jitsu (he’s a black belt), I still think Shogun has the advantage in this area especially when it comes to MMA, mostly due to his positioning and control. There are a lot of things Shogun will have to do perfectly to win this fight, but I think it will be more competitive than some people are thinking. Plus, I don’t think I will ever find Shogun at these odds again, so it was just too good to pass up.
My Pick: Shogun Rua 1.5 Units (+365) to win 5.475 units
Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
This won’t be a very popular pick and to tell you the truth, it’s more of a shot in the dark than it is me thinking it is some sort of lock. We know Brown Pride wants to get this fight to the ground and he has all the skills to do that. He obviously has top-notch wrestling and Rothwell has decent takedown defense but it is nothing to brag about. However, I’m not sure if Cain will be able to keep it on the ground. Rothwell is no slouch on the mat and he will be much more prepared to cage-walk his way back to the standup than any of Cain’s previous opponents. Could Cain just keep dropping him on his back? Maybe, but Ben is a big boy and I think by using both his size and experience he will be able to keep/get this fight back to standing more often than not. Rothwell has bricks for hands and his kickboxing is a couple levels about what Cain has to offer right now. Not only that, but Cain and his team sounded pretty disappointed in his standup performance against Kongo and he may try to prove the naysayers wrong even though it may be a big mistake. Cain hasn’t done enough yet in his career for me to believe that he should be this big of a favourite against a guy of Rothwell’s caliber. If someone held a gun to my head and said choose a winner I would have to go with Velasquez. Thankfully that isn’t the situation and I will go with the angry and tortured youth to come out with something to prove.
My Pick: Ben Rothwell (+275) 0.5 Units to win 1.375 Units
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen
Ironic quote of the month: Thoughts on opponent, Yushin Okami?He's a step in the wrong direction. Unmarketable. Not pleasing to watch and a horrible interview.
Well if that isn’t the kettle calling the coffee….wait…tea calling the coffee kettle…..well you know what I’m trying to say! If there’s one guy I enjoy watching less than Yushin Okami it’s Sonnen. He did absolutely nothing other than wrestle his last opponent to the ground and lay on him for 15 minutes…It’s a good thing that fight was followed up by McFedries knocking Pokam’s head off or I might not have made it to the main event. I don’t see where Sonnen can win this fight. He’s known for his agonizingly painful wrestling displays but this will be the first opponent he’s faced that matches him in that category and I actually think Okami’s wrestling is better adapted for MMA. Usually when you see contests like this where two wrestlers cancel each other out, it ends up in a stand-up war and there is no doubt in my mind that Okami will handle Sonnen with ease in that regard. He has better technique, more power, faster hands and a better clinch. The only thing that worries me is that Okami hasn’t fought since last December due to injuries, but it doesn’t worry me all that much.
My Pick: Yushin Okami (-220) 2.25 units to win 1.02 units
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer
This one is pretty simple. The red-headed stepchild isn’t winning this one. Schafer has made me some money in the past using his slick Jiu-Jitsu skills to pull off some upsets but he won’t have that chance this time as he will be too worried about the permanent damage being done to his face either standing or due to GnP. Bader is a beast who is ready to explode out of his shell and I think this will be the fight to push him up into the upper-echelon of the division with a dominating performance. If he would only change his nickname to ‘Master’ I could die a happy man. Could you imagine a Buffer 180 to the likes of "Ryyyyyyyaaaaaaannnnnn 'Masssssssttttttterrrrr' Baaaaaaaaaaadeeeeeerrrrrrrrrr". Ahhh sweet music to my ears. Bader by mammoth fists through skull.
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
This is another fight that I think will be fairly one-sided. I know some people are worried about the ridiculous weight-cut that Johnson is doing to get down to 170lbs. However, he’s pretty used to this due to his wrestling background – maybe not to this extent as he is still growing, but I think he knows what he’s doing. Plus I don’t expect this fight to last long enough for his cardio to come into play. Johnson will have the advantage in both the standup and the ground game. Yoshida is a great Judoka but he will be extremely undersized and he won’t have enough power to get top control over Johnson. I expect this one to be over before the end of the second round with Johnson winning by referee stoppage. Yoshida won’t be looking too pretty at the end of this one. Blood, guts and gore for the win – just in time for Halloween.
My Pick: 2 fight parlay – Ryan Bader/Anthony Johnson (-150) 3.5 units to win 2.345 units.
So there we have it. I may add another play on the Hardonk/Barry fight but I’m not ready to commit yet. As well, I will most likely add some bangers after the weigh-ins tomorrow.
