It's been a while but you haven't missed anything. I've been so-so to poor lately on my picks though I have been picking it up of late. I'll update my record with my StatFox record because it has gone down. Anyways, here's what I'm thinking about tonight's fights.
The UFC makes its first venture into Texas tonight with UFC 103: Franlin vs Belfort. The lines started off well in our favorite and have slowly dipped a little but there are still a couple bets to be made. I'm still keeping my max play to 3 units until I can fully break out of my slump. My two picks for tonight are:
3*Junior Dos santos -150 vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic
1* Vitor Belfort +110 vs. Rich Franklin
In the Dos Santos vs. Cro Cop match, this was a pretty easy fight to cap. Beyond the fact that Cro Cop hasn't looked good since he won the PrideFC open-weight Grand Prix, this is a bad matchup for him. He has only fought three legitamte strikers who were larger than him and he went 0-2-1. In that one draw, he was getting thoroughly beaten until a pair accidental groin shots gave him a way out of the fight. I see this fight going the same way those three did because nothing has changed with Cro Cop's game. He still relies solely on his striking and has nothing else to fall back on if that doesn't work. I think Dos Santos wins by UD. Also while watching this fight, look for Cro Cop to throw some unconventional strikes (axe kicks, back heel kicks, spinning backfists etc). This is just a sign that he's panicking which I fully expect from him tonight.
The Belfort Franklin match was a little bit harder to call due to the intangibles. On paper, Vitor Belfort has the clear advantage. He is a better grappler, striker, faster, and most likely stronger than Rich Franklin. Franklin on the other hand has the better cardio and fighter IQ. The problem here is that you're never 100% sure what Belfort you're going to get. If you're unfamiliar with Belfort, here's a synopsis of his career.
In the beginning, he was putting away guys Tyson style and was dubbed the Phenom because of his excellent hands and BJJ black belt. Then he got smashed by Randy Couture. He goes on to win his next two fights including his highlight reel victory over Wanderlei and Vitor "was back". He then fought his next 5 matches in PrideFC and went 4-1 but showed nothing spectacular setting up a fight with Chuck Liddell in the UFC which he lost a clear cut UD. Next fight, he destroys Marvin Eastman and again the old Vitor "was back". Fights Randy again, wins one (that should have been a No Contest due to a cut suffered in the first 49 seconds) and gets destroyed in the other. Fast forward ten or so fights (I don't feel like looking up his record and counting) and the pattern continues all the way to now. He fights, loses, and looks like absolute crap and you're thinking what the hell happened? And then he goes out and destroys the next five guys and you're like ah, there's the old Vitor. I know all about his personal problems in the past and that definitly contributed to his poorer performances but it doesn't change his whole career.
I think the difference now is that he's no longer in charge of his career. He's training at Xtreme Couture now and that has definitely helped his game. Though his last four fights were against journey men and a way past his prime Matt Lindland, he's been consistent. That's the main point here because if the "Old Vitor" shows up, he's going to hand Franklin his third loss in the UFC. Which is exactly what I think will happen.
The UFC makes its first venture into Texas tonight with UFC 103: Franlin vs Belfort. The lines started off well in our favorite and have slowly dipped a little but there are still a couple bets to be made. I'm still keeping my max play to 3 units until I can fully break out of my slump. My two picks for tonight are:
3*Junior Dos santos -150 vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic
1* Vitor Belfort +110 vs. Rich Franklin
In the Dos Santos vs. Cro Cop match, this was a pretty easy fight to cap. Beyond the fact that Cro Cop hasn't looked good since he won the PrideFC open-weight Grand Prix, this is a bad matchup for him. He has only fought three legitamte strikers who were larger than him and he went 0-2-1. In that one draw, he was getting thoroughly beaten until a pair accidental groin shots gave him a way out of the fight. I see this fight going the same way those three did because nothing has changed with Cro Cop's game. He still relies solely on his striking and has nothing else to fall back on if that doesn't work. I think Dos Santos wins by UD. Also while watching this fight, look for Cro Cop to throw some unconventional strikes (axe kicks, back heel kicks, spinning backfists etc). This is just a sign that he's panicking which I fully expect from him tonight.
The Belfort Franklin match was a little bit harder to call due to the intangibles. On paper, Vitor Belfort has the clear advantage. He is a better grappler, striker, faster, and most likely stronger than Rich Franklin. Franklin on the other hand has the better cardio and fighter IQ. The problem here is that you're never 100% sure what Belfort you're going to get. If you're unfamiliar with Belfort, here's a synopsis of his career.
In the beginning, he was putting away guys Tyson style and was dubbed the Phenom because of his excellent hands and BJJ black belt. Then he got smashed by Randy Couture. He goes on to win his next two fights including his highlight reel victory over Wanderlei and Vitor "was back". He then fought his next 5 matches in PrideFC and went 4-1 but showed nothing spectacular setting up a fight with Chuck Liddell in the UFC which he lost a clear cut UD. Next fight, he destroys Marvin Eastman and again the old Vitor "was back". Fights Randy again, wins one (that should have been a No Contest due to a cut suffered in the first 49 seconds) and gets destroyed in the other. Fast forward ten or so fights (I don't feel like looking up his record and counting) and the pattern continues all the way to now. He fights, loses, and looks like absolute crap and you're thinking what the hell happened? And then he goes out and destroys the next five guys and you're like ah, there's the old Vitor. I know all about his personal problems in the past and that definitly contributed to his poorer performances but it doesn't change his whole career.
I think the difference now is that he's no longer in charge of his career. He's training at Xtreme Couture now and that has definitely helped his game. Though his last four fights were against journey men and a way past his prime Matt Lindland, he's been consistent. That's the main point here because if the "Old Vitor" shows up, he's going to hand Franklin his third loss in the UFC. Which is exactly what I think will happen.
