Well we start off a busy week of UFC action with UFN 19 leading into Black on Black Crime (TUF 10). I usually don’t do as well on these TV cards compared to PPV (don’t ask why?) so I’ll tread a little lightly here. In all truthfulness, there’s not a whole lot I like on this card from a value perspective, so I’ll go square and parlay some fav’s to start!
Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger:
Condit is one mean/angry dude. I mean, have you seen the look on this guy’s face in stare downs and the moments leading up to the fight? It kinda makes me feel like I want to curl up in the fetal position and call for mommy. What’s that have to do with the fight? Not much but I thought I’d throw it out there because there’s not much analysis to do in this fight. I don’t really see any areas where Ellenberger can win this fight. From what I’ve seen he is a tough dude with some good power in his hands and decent wrestling. But I don’t think that will be enough to get a win over Condit. Carlos is no slouch in the standup as he showed against an excellent Muay Thai fighter in Martin Kampmann and I really don’t think Ellenberger will want to take a chance taking this fight to the ground with Condit’s slick submissions, especially from his back. With that all said I like Condit to control this fight from start to finish. Expect to see a whole lotta this pre-fight.
Grey Maynard vs. Roger Huerta
Here we have a soon-to-be top contender vs. a soon-to-be wannabe movie star. Ever since his double knockout draw with Rob Emerson, Gray Maynard has been on a tear rattling off 5 straight wins, albeit most of them by way of decision. But these aren’t your typical decisions – Maynard has totally dominated all of his opponents using his outstanding takedowns and top-control. I don’t see anything different in this fight. Roger has decided he no longer wants to be a “F**ckin Fighter” and is going Hollywood. Take a look at his first movie character…I didn’t know this was the Bruno version of Tekken:
So this is Dana White’s going away present for him. Huerta had difficulty stopping the takedown attempts of Clay Guida, so I don’t see what he will have to offer versus a much superior wrestler in Gray Maynard. Maynard may surprise some folks here and actually finish a fight! Maynard by TKO.
Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce
Not going to do too much of a write-up here as I don’t know much of anything with respect to Pierce. I usually try to stay away from fights with fighters I’ve haven’t seen much of but I’ll take my chances based on what I know about Larson – he’s one ugly looking guy who knows how fight. Can’t go wrong with that combination!
My Pick: 3 fight Parlay – Maynard/Condit/Larson (-105) 2.63 units to win 2.5 units
Chris Wilson vs Mike Pyle:
The one fight that I do see value in is this one. Mike Pyle is a journeyman fighter who has some good wins and some average losses. He’s been pretty inconsistent but has done well to win 4 of his last 5 fights since losing to Jake Shields back in the EliteXC era. He has been pretty much a one-trick pony with 15 of 17 wins by submission although he primarily has a wrestling background – funny thing to note is that 4 of his 6 losses have also come by decision. I guess he lives and dies by the sword as they say. As for Chris Wilson, he’s had a mixed bag of results since he joined the UFC. He was extremely impressive in a loss in his UFC debut vs Jon Fitch, but hasn’t been quite as impressive in his last 2 fights. He has pretty good standup which I think will give Pyle trouble. Wilson has a lot riding on this fight; He hasn’t fought since a loss in January due to some extreme circumstances with his family being held at gunpoint in Brazil (YIKES!) and some medical clearance issues. I think he will perform under pressure and put everything he has into this fight, picking apart Pyle in the standup while avoiding the takedowns.
My Pick: Chris Wilson (+115) 1.5 units to win 1.725 units
Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover:
Warning! Warning! Canadian bias alert! Let me start by saying, I dunno what happened to my boy Sam – he needs to trade in his nickname as he’s only had 1 KO win along with 4 decisions in his last 5 fights. Where’d the stones go dude? Where’d they go? Well, It won’t matter here as he’s taking on an undersized Filippino in TUF runner-up Nover. Nover was touted to be the 155lb version of Anderson Silva by Dana White during the taping of TUF – can you say hype machine? The guy shoulda stuck to nursing!!!
Since then, he hasn’t shown much of anything. He was tossed around by Efrain and TKO’d (albeit questionable) by Kyle Bradley. I honestly think he would be better to go the route of Manny Gamburyan and move down to WEC’s 145lb division. I don’t see Stout having trouble with Nover here as I believe he has a solid advantage in the standup where I think this fight will stay. I see this going the same route as Stout’s last fight against Wiman – a solid unanimous decision.
My Pick: Sam Stout (-185) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Melvin Guillard vs. Nate Diaz
Well I’m going to take a shot in the dark here. I know Guillard weaknesses – I know he couldn’t keep his limbs out of a submission if his life depended on it. I know Nate Diaz has amazing submissions, especially from his back. In spite of all of this, I’m going to make a small play on Guillard. He did look better defending on the ground and made use of his wrestling against Tibau (although I still believe he lost that fight, but that’s neither here nor there). I’m hoping he’s smart enough to keep this standing as I believe he has the better standup game, not only with his power but in his diversity. I also believe his takedown defense will be good enough to keep Diaz from taking him to the ground. As well, Diaz is known for not minding mixing it up on his feet, even though that isn’t his strength. Here’s hoping Melvin fights a smart fight………ugh.
My Pick: Melvin Guillard (+210) 0.5 units to win 1.05 units
Thats all I got for now. Degenerate parlays are sure to follow.
Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger:
Condit is one mean/angry dude. I mean, have you seen the look on this guy’s face in stare downs and the moments leading up to the fight? It kinda makes me feel like I want to curl up in the fetal position and call for mommy. What’s that have to do with the fight? Not much but I thought I’d throw it out there because there’s not much analysis to do in this fight. I don’t really see any areas where Ellenberger can win this fight. From what I’ve seen he is a tough dude with some good power in his hands and decent wrestling. But I don’t think that will be enough to get a win over Condit. Carlos is no slouch in the standup as he showed against an excellent Muay Thai fighter in Martin Kampmann and I really don’t think Ellenberger will want to take a chance taking this fight to the ground with Condit’s slick submissions, especially from his back. With that all said I like Condit to control this fight from start to finish. Expect to see a whole lotta this pre-fight.
Grey Maynard vs. Roger Huerta
Here we have a soon-to-be top contender vs. a soon-to-be wannabe movie star. Ever since his double knockout draw with Rob Emerson, Gray Maynard has been on a tear rattling off 5 straight wins, albeit most of them by way of decision. But these aren’t your typical decisions – Maynard has totally dominated all of his opponents using his outstanding takedowns and top-control. I don’t see anything different in this fight. Roger has decided he no longer wants to be a “F**ckin Fighter” and is going Hollywood. Take a look at his first movie character…I didn’t know this was the Bruno version of Tekken:
So this is Dana White’s going away present for him. Huerta had difficulty stopping the takedown attempts of Clay Guida, so I don’t see what he will have to offer versus a much superior wrestler in Gray Maynard. Maynard may surprise some folks here and actually finish a fight! Maynard by TKO.
Brock Larson vs. Mike Pierce
Not going to do too much of a write-up here as I don’t know much of anything with respect to Pierce. I usually try to stay away from fights with fighters I’ve haven’t seen much of but I’ll take my chances based on what I know about Larson – he’s one ugly looking guy who knows how fight. Can’t go wrong with that combination!
My Pick: 3 fight Parlay – Maynard/Condit/Larson (-105) 2.63 units to win 2.5 units
Chris Wilson vs Mike Pyle:
The one fight that I do see value in is this one. Mike Pyle is a journeyman fighter who has some good wins and some average losses. He’s been pretty inconsistent but has done well to win 4 of his last 5 fights since losing to Jake Shields back in the EliteXC era. He has been pretty much a one-trick pony with 15 of 17 wins by submission although he primarily has a wrestling background – funny thing to note is that 4 of his 6 losses have also come by decision. I guess he lives and dies by the sword as they say. As for Chris Wilson, he’s had a mixed bag of results since he joined the UFC. He was extremely impressive in a loss in his UFC debut vs Jon Fitch, but hasn’t been quite as impressive in his last 2 fights. He has pretty good standup which I think will give Pyle trouble. Wilson has a lot riding on this fight; He hasn’t fought since a loss in January due to some extreme circumstances with his family being held at gunpoint in Brazil (YIKES!) and some medical clearance issues. I think he will perform under pressure and put everything he has into this fight, picking apart Pyle in the standup while avoiding the takedowns.
My Pick: Chris Wilson (+115) 1.5 units to win 1.725 units
Sam Stout vs. Phillipe Nover:
Warning! Warning! Canadian bias alert! Let me start by saying, I dunno what happened to my boy Sam – he needs to trade in his nickname as he’s only had 1 KO win along with 4 decisions in his last 5 fights. Where’d the stones go dude? Where’d they go? Well, It won’t matter here as he’s taking on an undersized Filippino in TUF runner-up Nover. Nover was touted to be the 155lb version of Anderson Silva by Dana White during the taping of TUF – can you say hype machine? The guy shoulda stuck to nursing!!!
Since then, he hasn’t shown much of anything. He was tossed around by Efrain and TKO’d (albeit questionable) by Kyle Bradley. I honestly think he would be better to go the route of Manny Gamburyan and move down to WEC’s 145lb division. I don’t see Stout having trouble with Nover here as I believe he has a solid advantage in the standup where I think this fight will stay. I see this going the same route as Stout’s last fight against Wiman – a solid unanimous decision.
My Pick: Sam Stout (-185) 2 units to win 1.1 units
Melvin Guillard vs. Nate Diaz
Well I’m going to take a shot in the dark here. I know Guillard weaknesses – I know he couldn’t keep his limbs out of a submission if his life depended on it. I know Nate Diaz has amazing submissions, especially from his back. In spite of all of this, I’m going to make a small play on Guillard. He did look better defending on the ground and made use of his wrestling against Tibau (although I still believe he lost that fight, but that’s neither here nor there). I’m hoping he’s smart enough to keep this standing as I believe he has the better standup game, not only with his power but in his diversity. I also believe his takedown defense will be good enough to keep Diaz from taking him to the ground. As well, Diaz is known for not minding mixing it up on his feet, even though that isn’t his strength. Here’s hoping Melvin fights a smart fight………ugh.
My Pick: Melvin Guillard (+210) 0.5 units to win 1.05 units
Thats all I got for now. Degenerate parlays are sure to follow.
.
. But may the Melvin be with us!!
