UFC Fight Night - Holloway vs Allen - Sat, April 15

[JIBBBY]

Best Fight odds - https://fightodds.io/mma-events/4580...-vs-allen/odds

UFC event over view - https://www.ufc.com/event/ufc-fight-night-april-15-2023

[JIBBBY]

A few main card write ups - MMA MANIA






Light Heavyweight: Dustin Jacoby vs. Azamat Murzakanov

Best Win for Jacoby? Michal Oleksiejczuk For Murzakanov? Devin Clark
Current Streak: Jacoby came up short last time out, whereas Murzakanov is 12-0 with two UFC wins
X-Factor: Will Murzakanov mix wrestling into his attack?
How these two match up: Two knockout artists will go to war.
Jacoby underwhelmed in his first UFC stint a decade ago, but a cross over into professional kickboxing really seemed to help define his overall game. Since his 2020 return to the roster, Jacoby has been a consistently hard out, a powerful kickboxer able to keep a solid pace for 15 full minutes.
Murzakanov might just be a great prospect. He certainly has the record! However, his debut was a bit concerning, as Murzakanov found himself down two rounds opposite the unheralded Tafon Nchukwi until a jump knee salvaged the win. He looked far better last time out when he beat up Clark, but it’s still hard to truly get a bead on the ceiling of “The Professional.”
Maybe Murzakanov is yet another “ov” destined to make a clean run to the title, but he hasn’t really looked the part just yet. Against Jacoby, he faces significant disadvantages in height, reach, and experience. Jacoby has faced plenty of big hitters, but thus far, his chin has held up remarkably well, and he’s skilled at remaining composed in the face of heavy shots.
Likely, Murzakanov finds some success early. As the fight wears on, however, Jacoby’s more consistent distance game of jabs and kicks should start to dictate the range and put him in the driver’s seat.
Prediction: Jacoby via decision
Related
Up Next! Holloway Vs. Allen In Kansas City!

---

Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba vs. Tanner Boser

Best Win for Cutelaba? Khalil Rountree Jr For Boser? Ovince Saint Preux
Current Streak: Cutelaba has lost three in a row, whereas Boser came up short in his last bout
X-Factor: This is Boser’s first cut to 205 pounds.
How these two match up: Though both men are well-rounded enough, this likely plays out as wrestler vs. striker battle.
Cutelaba is a fairly infuriating fighter. For literal years now, I’ve written about how Cutelaba has the athleticism, punching power, and wrestling skill to actually pick up decent wins at 205 lbs. His complete lack of defense and ability to maintain a pace, however, routinely offset those gifts.
We’ve been waiting for the 29 year old to turn a corner for how long now?
Boser made his name by being a small Heavyweight and capitalizing on speed and conditioning against fatter, sloppier opposition. That works a lot better against Raphael Pessoa than Ciryl Gane, and since hitting a wall in his last four bouts, Boser has decided to try his hand at Light Heavyweight. Based on Instagram, he looks to be in tremendous shape for the occasion, which is a very positive sign.
Still, this entire fight feels like an X-Factor. Boser’s takedown defense was never great at Heavyweight, and there are arguments for it being better or worse at Light Heavyweight. After all, Boser will face less of a size advantage, but Cutelaba is actually good at wrestling unlike most Heavyweights.
If Cutelaba gains top position, and he probably will early on, he’s prone to unleashing hell with his ground strikes. Simultaneously, his gas tank remains horrid, and Boser’s strikes should be even more impactful down a weight class.
It all sounds like a massive coin flip, but I’ve been burned too many times expecting competence in winnable fights from Cutelaba. Prediction aside, here’s my real advice: don’t bet on this silly fight, just enjoy the chaos.
Prediction: Boser via knockout
Related
Holloway Still ‘A Better Fighter Than Volkanovski’

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Bantamweight: Pedro Munhoz vs. Chris Gutierrez

Best Win for Munhoz? Cody Garbrandt For Gutierrez? Frankie Edgar
Current Streak: Munhoz enters off two losses and a “No Contest,” while Gutierrez is unbeaten in his last eight fights
X-Factor: Munhoz is no longer “The Young Punisher” at 36 years of age
How these two match up: This is a classic veteran vs. up-and-comer booking.
Munhoz has been in the cage with most of the best Bantamweights of the last decade. He still has one of the best chins in the business, a remarkably nasty calf kick, and an instant-death guillotine choke. Historically, his lack of speed is his greatest flaw, but Munhoz is almost always a really tough out in victory or defeat.
The Brazilian can be counted on to make it a scrap.
Gutierrez has an argument as the best low kicker in MMA. He’s so damn good at dissecting his opponent’s lead leg, and unlike most strong calf kickers, he can easily switch stances and kick just as hard from the outside side. It’s a common occurrence for him to debilitate his opponent’s lead leg, then switch stances and brutalize the other calf when they switch to preserve their wounded leg!
I find myself very conflicted in this bout as well. Munhoz is the more well-rounded fighter with better experience and several potential avenues towards victory. A couple years ago, I have little doubt that Munhoz would’ve successfully made it a brawl and found an opportunity to make use of his grappling advantage.
Now, I’m far less confident. Bantamweight is a young man’s division, and Gutierrez’s speed advantage will be significant. Munhoz looked sharp against O’Malley prior to the eye poke, but it’s still hard to ignore he’s been losing far more often than winning in recent years, regardless of the level of competition.
This feels like a changing of the guard moment.
Prediction: Gutierrez via decision

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups. MMA MANIA -





155 lbs.: Lando Vannata vs. Daniel Zellhuber

The debut war for Lando Vannata (12-6-2) with Tony Ferguson and subsequent wheel kick knockout of John Makdessi seemingly put him on the fast track to stardom, only for him to go winless in his next four. Dropping to 145 pounds produced a 3-3 run that most recently saw him choked out by Charles Jourdain in April 2022.
“Groovy” faces a four-inch height disadvantage and a six-inch reach disadvantage against “Golden Boy.”
Daniel Zellhuber (12-1) survived a vicious opening round to hand Lucas Almeida his first professional defeat and claim a UFC contract on Contender Series. Nearly a year later, he debuted against Trey Ogden, who capitalized on Zellhuber’s uncharacteristic lethargy to outwork him en route to a unanimous decision win.
His nine professional finishes include seven via knockout.
I genuinely believe Zellhuber is a far better fighter than he showed against Ogden. Flawed, certainly, but gifted and still young enough to turn the corner. While this may just be my optimism talking or an attempt to save face after hyping him up in New Blood, I think he’s got what it takes to win this. So long as he actually lets his hands go, his length and durability present real issues for the eternally inconsistent Vannata.
I acknowledge that Zellhuber completely beefed it last time out and I have no concrete evidence to suggest he’ll put it all together here. Against someone who eternally struggles to make all his gears mesh, though, I’m willing to bank on the physically superior athlete. Prediction? He pieces up Vannata for his first Octagon victory.
Prediction: Zellhuber via unanimous decision
Related
Up Next! Holloway Vs. Allen In Kansas City!


115 lbs.: Bruna Brasil vs. Denise Gomes

Bruna Brasil (8-2-1) defied the odds to hand Yasmin Castanho her first-ever defeat in the former’s Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) debut. This set up a shot on the Contender Series, where she stopped Marnic Mann via head kick to extend her winning streak to seven and claim a UFC contract.
Her five professional stoppages are split 3/2 between knockouts and submissions.
A comeback knockout of Milana Dudieva earned Denise Gomes (6-2) her first Invicta victory, after which she punched her ticket to the big show by beating Rayanne dos Santos on the Contender Series. Despite some solid stretches of back control, she proved unable to overcome Loma Lookboonmee on a three-week turnaround, resulting in her first loss since 2017.
She stands four inches shorter than Brasil and faces a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.
Range is the deciding factor here. Brasil has Gomes badly outclassed at a distance; her deep kicking arsenal and heavy counters make the most of her height and reach advantages. It’s a different story in close, where Gomes’ aggression and grappling skills serve as great equalizers. The uglier it gets and the more Gomes can smother Brasil’s kicks by either catching them or retaliating with punches, the better it’ll go for “Dee.”
Brasil just seems a bit too sharp for that, though, especially since she’s got takedown chops of her own to exploit Gomes’ poor defensive wrestling if things get too hairy on the feet. “The Special One” tears up Gomes’ legs, plugs her with counter punches, and racks up top control to claim a decisive win.
Prediction: Brasil via unanimous decision

135 lbs.: Aaron Phillips vs. Gaston Bolanos

Nearly six years after washing out of the Octagon on an 0-2 skid, Aaron Phillips (12-4) returned in July 2020 to face the red-hot Jack Shore. Victory once again proved elusive, as he succumbed to “Tank’s” rear naked choke midway through the second round.
He fights for the first time in 33 months.
A highly successful Nak Muay and kickboxer, Gaston Bolanos (6-3) has spent the entirety of his mixed martial arts (MMA) career in the Bellator cage. He last saw action in April 2022, knocking out Daniel Carey to end a two-year layoff and avenge one of his three defeats.
All six of his MMA wins have come by knockout.
I can’t say with any certainty what Phillips will look like on Saturday night. As underwhelming as he’s been in his pro career, I’ve seen worse fighters make more dramatic turnarounds over shorter periods of time. It’s not like Bolanos is some unstoppable force, either; his defensive grappling remains a major Achilles’ heel and he can get weirdly sloppy when engaging at long range.
All that said, Phillips failed to make huge strides between his first and second UFC stints, and though you could attribute a lot of that to the fact that he fought a stylistic nightmare in Jack Shore, it doesn’t bode well for his chances here. Like a monkey paw, UFC finally gave Phillips a willing striker, but it’s one who will tear him apart with blistering boxing combos in the pocket..
Prediction: Bolanos via first round technical knockout

135 lbs.: Joselyne Edwards vs. Lucie Pudilova

More than two years after unsuccessfully battling Sarah Alpar for LFA gold, Joselyne Edwards (12-4) claimed her first UFC victory with a decision over ** Yanan. Though she went on to lose her next two, she enters the cage this Saturday on a two-fight win streak, both of which came in the span of less than two months.
She has knocked out five professional foes and submitted three others.
After leaving the world’s largest fight promotion in an 0-4 freefall, Lucie Pudilova (14-7) rebuilt herself with a 5-1 OKTAGON run. She ultimately made her UFC return in August 2022, pounding out ** Yanan for her first promotional victory since 2018.
She faces a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage.
This one comes down to whether Pudilova can keep her foot on the gas. She proved against Irene Aldana that she can throw heat for three rounds and showed off some improved takedown skills last time out that Edwards figures to struggle with. Despite her pedigree of violence, though, she was unusually passive for long stretches of the ** fight, which won’t serve her well against Edwards’ high-volume pitter-pat style.
Even with that caveat, Pudilova strikes me as the likely victor. Edwards struggled with the incredibly limited Ramona Pascual and has historically proven vulnerable to determined takedown artists, suggesting Pudilova can hold her own on the feet and take it to the mat as necessary.
Heavier strikes and strong top control carry the day for Pudilova.
Prediction: Pudilova via unanimous decision


145 lbs.: Bill Algeo vs. T.J. Brown

An upset decision over Joanderson Brito and subsequent beatdown of Herbert Burns — the latter of which earned Bill Algeo (16-7) his second post-fight bonus — pushed “Senor Perfecto’s” UFC record back over .500. It wasn’t to last, as his next appearance saw him drop a short-notice split decision to Andre Fili in Sept. 2022.
He stands three inches taller than “Downtown” and boasts a one-inch reach advantage.
T.J. Brown (17-9) rebounded from a winless (0-2) UFC start by winning two straight over Kai Kamaka III and Charles Rosa. Though he failed to get past Shayilan Nuerdanbueke, he bounced back six months later with a bonus-winning arm triangle finish of Erik Silva.
That win marked his tenth via submission and fourteenth inside the distance.
That win over Silva was a reminder of what Brown can do when he’s firing on all cylinders. The talent and skills are clearly there, just held back by suspect durability and questionable decision-making. If everything goes right for him, his wrestling and boxing are enough to carry him past Algeo’s offbeat offense.
While Algeo is easy to hit and take down, though, he’s also very adept at getting right back into the fight. Brown is always on the brink of disaster, so someone like Algeo who’s difficult to neutralize and always in position to end the fight presents a unique challenge. Expect Brown to build up an early lead with takedowns and clean right hands before inevitably getting clipped.
Prediction: Algeo via second round technical knockout
Related
Fighter on Fighter: Breaking Down ‘Blessed!’


125 lbs.: Brandon Royval vs. Matheus Nicolau

Brandon Royval’s (14-6) red-hot Octagon start gave way to two straight losses, one a shoulder injury against Brandon Moreno and the other a submission defeat courtesy of Alexandre Pantoja. He got back on track by edging out Rogerio Bontorin in a rare trip to the judges, then choked out Matt Schnell to secure his third “Fight of the Night” bonus in six appearances.
Nine of his 12 professional finishes have come by submission.
Matheus Nicolau (19-2-1) racked up a perfect (3-0) UFC record before leaving the promotion on the heels of a knockout loss to Dustin Ortiz. He ultimately returned more than two years later and hit the ground running, claiming victory in his next four appearances to claim a spot in the Flyweight Top 5.
He gives up three inches of height and two inches of reach to “Raw Dawg.”
He may not be the most exciting Flyweight in the game, but Nicolau strikes me as a natural foil to Royval. “Raw Dawg” thrives in chaos, using relentless pressure and high-risk techniques to provoke opponents into overextending and leaving themselves vulnerable to submissions. Unfortunately for him, Nicolau is extraordinarily patient and composed; neither the power of Manel Kape nor the nonstop takedown onslaught of Tim Elliott were enough to throw him off his game.
Considering that Nicolau is the heavier puncher and a sufficiently stout wrestler to keep it standing, that’s bad news for Royval. Expect Nicolau to hold his own in a fire fight until Royval gets a bit too greedy and eats a counter down the pipe.
Prediction: Nicolau via second round technical knockout
Related
UFC Kansas City Clash: Barboza Vs. Quarantillo!


205 lbs.: Zak Cummings vs. Ed Herman

Former The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 18 competitor, Zak Cummings (24-7), quietly assembled a 6-2 UFC Welterweight record before a narrow loss to Michel Prazeres sent him back to 185 pounds. The move appeared to work out, as he won three of his next four and claimed upset decisions over Trevin Giles and Alessio Di Chirico along the way.
He fights for the first time in nearly 32 months and makes his first Light Heavyweight appearance in more than one decade.
A successful UFC Light Heavyweight debut saw Ed Herman (27-15) stop Tim Boetsch with a bonus-winning knee, only to fall short in his next three bouts. That slump gave way to a three-fight winning streak, which ended in August 2021 at the hands of Alonzo Menifield.
He’ll enjoy one inch of height and two inches of reach on Cummings.
Cummings’ size, sneaky power and potent submissions made him a headache for most at 170 and 185 pounds. Things don’t figure to go quite as smoothly at 205, where the takedowns and knockdowns he needs to compensate for his low output will be harder to come by. Luckily for him, Herman’s another undersized veteran who lacks the footwork to out-maneuver Cummings and the wrestling to hold him down.
Herman could definitely still out-work Cummings in a gritty, slow-paced striking battle, but Cummings is the younger man and has much less mileage on him, which suggests that he’ll hold up better down the stretch. I say Cummings’ left hand does enough damage to secure a decision.
Prediction: Cummings via unanimous decision
Related
Holloway Still ‘A Better Fighter Than Volkanovski’


115 lbs.: Gillian Robertson vs. Piera Rodriguez (9-0)

Gillian Robertson (11-7) went from winning six of her first eight UFC bouts to losing two straight against Taila Santos and Miranda Maverick. “The Savage” has since won two of three, a loss to J.J. Aldrich sandwiched between submission wins over Mariya Agapova and Priscila Cachoeira.
This will be her first Strawweight appearance since 2017.
Piera Rodriguez (9-0) followed her Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) title-winning stoppage of Svetlana Gotsyk by out-classing Valesca Machado on Contender Series to earn a UFC contract. She’s made the most of the opportunity with two straight wins, the most recent of which saw her survive a late surge to beat Sam Hughes by decision.
All five of her professional stoppages have come via (technical) knockout.
I’m generally skeptical when veterans go down in weight, but the fact that Robertson’s doing so after a win makes me think she and Din Thomas know what they’re doing. That’s bad news for Rodriguez. That’s because even though a better striker than Robertson, “La Fiera” has leaned on her wrestling of late and appeared to fade down in the third against Hughes. Against a dedicated takedown artist like Robertson — who for once won’t have to compensate for a lack of size — that spells trouble.
Robertson does admittedly have a lot of lingering questions, both in terms of the weight cut and her historical inability to get over the hump. Still, there’s enough going her way in this match to earn the nod. In the end, she steadily overpowers Rodriguez before locking up her signature rear-naked choke in the home stretch.
Prediction: Robertson via third round submission

[JIBBBY]

I'm fading Max Holloway. He's been inconsistent lately, 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Arnold Allen is more consistent and is on a 12 fight win streak. As the dog I think Arnold is a good bet...

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Arnold-Allen-97499

[JIBBBY]

[Mackballs]

I'm fading Max Holloway. He's been inconsistent lately, 2-3 in his last 5 fights. Arnold Allen is more consistent and is on a 12 fight win streak. As the dog I think Arnold is a good bet...

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Arnold-Allen-97499

So you looked at Wikipedia for 60 secs.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Holloway didn't lose all 3 fights to Volk. It was close but imo he won two out of the three.

[JIBBBY]

Holloway is a dog and warrior but I just learned to start fading Hawaiians. I think they are slipping in the sport. Holloway has been is some real battles and I think it's starting to wear on him. Arnold just keeps steadily winning and looks better doing it IMO.

Allen is bigger and stronger then Holloway.

[JC2008]

Fight day! Good luck, everyone!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Holloway is a dog and warrior but I just learned to start fading Hawaiians. I think they are slipping in the sport. Holloway has been is some real battles and I think it's starting to wear on him. Arnold just keeps steadily winning and looks better doing it IMO.

Allen is bigger and stronger then Holloway.

This is a big step up in competition for Allen. Not to say that he can't win because of that but Holloway or no bet for me.

[JC2008]

This is a big step up in competition for Allen. Not to say that he can't win because of that but Holloway or no bet for me.

The competition levels aren't even close. I'm a big Allen fan and he's won me nothing but money but the Kattar fight ended early, Hooker was drained and the worst possible version we've ever seen of him, etc. Allen has no doubt improved in spades since the Mads Burnell fight but this fight has that Holloway/Kattar feeling. Max wants to prove something and he's said as much in interviews already. We'll see. Good value on Allen decision +425 (Leo Vegas) but I don't know. I may LIVE bet Max at a better number after the first round or two if I can. Could be a split/majority decision either way but I wouldn't be shocked if Max stops him late from accumulation. .50 cents on the draw for the win!

[JAKEPEAVY21]

The competition levels aren't even close. I'm a big Allen fan and he's won me nothing but money but the Kattar fight ended early, Hooker was drained and the worst possible version we've ever seen of him, etc. Allen has no doubt improved in spades since the Mads Burnell fight but this fight has that Holloway/Kattar feeling. Max wants to prove something and he's said as much in interviews already. We'll see. Good value on Allen decision +425 (Leo Vegas) but I don't know. I may LIVE bet Max at a better number after the first round or two if I can. Could be a split/majority decision either way but I wouldn't be shocked if Max stops him late from accumulation. .50 cents on the draw for the win!

Well said and that is pretty much where I'm at with it.

Not out of the realm of possibility for Allen to win but i can't bet it with this massive step up in competition and a highly motivated Holloway.

[JIBBBY]

Big time fade on Ed "short fuse" Herman. Too old and washed up now.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Big time fade on Ed "short fuse" Herman. Too old and washed up now.

God Bless ol' Short Fuse...one of the OGs

Seems like he has been too old and washed up for like a decade now, can't believe dude is still fighting and in the UFC

[JC2008]

Zak Cummins may be fighting at home and in front of his daughter but he hasn't fought in 3 years and is moving up in weight. I'm not laying -225 on his ass. At least I know Herman will fight for my money.

[JIBBBY]

Zak Cummins may be fighting at home and in front of his daughter but he hasn't fought in 3 years and is moving up in weight. I'm not laying -225 on his ass. At least I know Herman will fight for my money.

Ed Herman will get knocked out fighting for your money JC.

This will be Ed Herman's last fight in the UFC. Cummings always had the granite chin and is tough, Ed Herman's only hope is to bang and get the KO and that's not happening against the younger Zac Cummings.

[JC2008]

Ed Herman will get knocked out fighting for your money JC.

This will be Ed Herman's last fight in the UFC. Cummings always had the granite chin and is tough, Ed Herman's only hope is to bang and get the KO and that's not happening against the younger Zac Cummings.

He probably will. It's not a fight I'm betting either way so good luck! If you are that confident on Cummings, his KO/TKO/DQ is around +200 and his r1 is +1300, r2 +1700, r3 +2400.

[JIBBBY]

Game time!

Good luck everyone..

[Kermit]

One of the worst decisions ever.

[JIBBBY]

Worst judging robbery I've ever seen in that first fight. UFC judges always suspect..

I lost that one, thank you judges...

[Kermit]

Worst judging robbery I've ever seen in that first fight. UFC judges always suspect..

I lost that one, thank you judges...

I had her in a parlay.

[JIBBBY]

I had her in a parlay.

I had her straight.

Black chick misses weight, on her back for the first two rounds and got dominated. I even think she lost the 3rd round.

Fire those judges and buy them some glasses!

[Kermit]

I had her straight.

Black chick misses weight, on her back for the first two rounds and got dominated. I even think she lost the 3rd round.

Fire those judges and buy them some glasses!

She was -3000 going into the last round.

[JIBBBY]

She was -3000 going into the last round.

Not surprising as she won the first two rounds clearly. Even the announcers Bisbing and Daniel C were like WTF was that decision?

[Kermit]

Not surprising as she won the first two rounds clearly. Even the announcers Bisbing and Daniel C were like WTF was that decision?

And to add insult to injury, she missed weight too.

[Kermit]

That first fight should be a wake up call for the rest of the fighters to finish their fights.

[JIBBBY]

That first fight should be a wake up call for the rest of the fighters to finish their fights.

Kermy you and I should apply to be UFC judges. We'd do a better job.

[JC2008]

I don't have stats but I've personally noticed that betting the underdog in the opening fight, whether a Fight Night or PPV proved profitable over the last decade. Bettors are naturally inclined to bet the favorite.

[JIBBBY]

Chick beat down there. Little bulldog! I didn't bet it.

[JC2008]

Shit. Gomes was +180 at the opener.

[JIBBBY]

Fading Clay Guida big time. Another old fighter past his prime. Just can't see him winning this fight. Gotta fade the old legends in the UFC that are in the 40's is my rule.

[JC2008]

Herman was +600 after r1. It's getting greasy now.

[JC2008]

Thanks Jibbby you convinced me to throw Cummings in lots of parlays, with a minor hedge on Herman.

[JIBBBY]

He probably will. It's not a fight I'm betting either way so good luck! If you are that confident on Cummings, his KO/TKO/DQ is around +200 and his r1 is +1300, r2 +1700, r3 +2400.

.....

[JC2008]

.....

Did you take r3? I did not.