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Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-15-23, 05:23 PM. -
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Prelim write ups -
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155 lbs.: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Evan Elder
Unfazed by an unsuccessful professional debut, Nazim Sadykhov (7-1) smashed his way through CFFC and Fury FC to secure a spot on Contender Series. There, he knocked out Ahmad Suhail Hassanzada in the third round of a contract-winning performance.
His six professional finishes include five via (technical) knockout.
When Preston Parsons needed a new opponent on short notice in April 2022, Evan Elder (7-1) moved up in weight to answer the call. His abilities didn’t quite match his ambition, resulting in his first-ever defeat.
He’ll enjoy a three-inch reach advantage.
Between the short notice and the fact that he was fighting a powerful wrestler 15 pounds above his normal weight class, I’m willing to cut Elder a lot of slack for losing to Parsons. However, I just don’t see this going much better for him. Though Sadykhov lacks that sort of takedown onslaught, he’s a devastating counter-puncher, and Elder’s shown off a tendency to linger in the pocket.
Sadykhov’s poor lateral movement and tendency to get hit coming in do give Elder a shot, but Sadykhov’s got a clear edge in firepower. In the end, he batters Elder into submission inside the first five minutes.
Prediction: Sadykhov via first round technical knockout
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170 lbs.: A.J. Fletcher vs. Themba Gorimbo
Fletcher earned a UFC berth by flattening Leonardo Damiani with a flying knee on Contender Series. He’s still chasing his first Octagon victory, having lost decisions to Matthew Semelsberger and Ange Loosa in UFC.
His eight professional finishes are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
Themba Gorimbo (10-3) — EFC’s former Welterweight champion — saw a three-fight win streak snapped at the hands of Professional Fighters League (PFL) veteran, Handesson Ferreira. His next bout took him to Fury FC, where he scored a unanimous decision over Julio Rodrigues.
He’ll have a nearly 10-inch reach advantage over Fletcher.
By all rights, this is Fletcher’s fight to lose. Gorimbo’s inability to deal with Ferreira’s wrestling gives “The Ghost” a clear path to victory, and while Fletcher is facing a comical reach disadvantage, he’s sharp enough to deal with Gorimbo’s wild bursts of offense. The question, of course, is Fletcher’s cardio. It’s now failed him twice in a row, and while you could attribute the first time to Semelsberger’s pace and the second time to fighting at altitude, it’s hard to see him bouncing back if it gives out again.
Call me crazy, but I’m willing to believe in him. Gorimbo isn’t active enough off of his back to make Fletcher burn energy from the top and I imagine Las Vegas’ air will treat him much better than Salt Lake City’s. In short, he dominates Gorimbo from the top to secure his first UFC victory.
Prediction: Fletcher via unanimous decision
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125 lbs.: Clayton Carpenter vs. Juancamilo Ronderos
Clayton Carpenter (6-0) went from 6-1 amateur to 5-0 pro on his way to Contender Series. Though “Concrete” failed to put Edgar Chairez away after 15 minutes, his unanimous decision victory was enough to earn him a contract.
Three of his four finishes have come in the first round.
Juancamilo Ronderos (4-1) — a former undefeated (9-0) amateur — scored his first marquee victory as a professional by upsetting TUF and UFC veteran, Eric Shelton. He then stepped up on short notice to fight David Dvorak, who choked him out midway through the second round.
He fights for the first time in almost 21 months.
I honestly believe Ronderos is better than that Dvorak debacle would suggest and that Carpenter has some serious flaws in his game. This isn’t the complete wipeout the odds suggest. Still, it’s hard to pick against Carpenter after Ronderos’ grappling completely failed to make a dent on Dvorak. If nothing else, “Concrete” is durable and persistent.
Ronderos has had nearly two years to improve, so an upset wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world, but Carpenter’s aggression, wrestling and ground-and-pound should carry him to a debut victory.
Prediction: Carpenter via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Lina Lansberg vs. Mayra Bueno Silva
Undeterred by a 1-2 UFC start, Lina Lansberg (10-7) put together a 3-1 run, capped off by an upset decision over Macy Chiasson. She’s winless since, dropping three straight to Sara McMann, Pannie Kianzad and Karol Rosa.
“The Elbow Queen” stands one inch taller than “Sheetara,” but gives up one inch of reach.
Mayra Bueno Silva (9-2-1) initially struggled to capitalize on the momentum from her UFC debut submission of Gillian Robertson, winning just one of her next four bouts. She returned to the win column with a Fight of the Night decision over ** Yanan, then tapped Stephanie Egger in 77 seconds to secure her first multi-fight win streak since 2018.
Six of her seven stoppage wins have come by submission.
It’s beyond frustrating to see someone with Bueno Silva’s power and submission skills fail to develop cage cutting or wrestling. She’s someone who relies on opponents giving her the fight she wants, which allowed Maryna Moroz and Manon Fiorot to run circles around her.
Even if she can’t take the next steps she needs, what she’s got should be enough to carry her past Lansberg. She’s by far the heavier-handed on the feet, which should let her offset any difference in volume, and Lansberg’s preference for the clinch plays into “Sheetara’s” hands. Plus, Bueno Silva’s jiu-jitsu should serve as a deterrent if Lansberg considers taking it to the mat. Eye-catching power shots win the day for Bueno Silva.
Prediction: Bueno Silva via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Jamall Emmers vs. Khusein Askhabov
Jamall Emmers (18-6) bounced back from his controversial UFC debut loss to Giga Chikadze by cruising past Vince Cachero five months later. “Pretty Boy” looked poised to make it two straight after dropping Pat Sabatini in the opening seconds of their August 2021 bout, but quickly fell victim to a comeback heel hook.
He stands two inches taller than Khusein Askhabov (23-0) at 5’10.”
A professional since 2012, “Lion” racked up 16 finishes during his run through the European circuit. His accolades include an 11-0 record under the WWFC promotion and a reign as its Bantamweight champion.
This marks his third attempt at a UFC debut and his first bout in nearly three years.
Honestly, it’s anyone’s guess what’ll happen here. Askhabov’s been out since 2020 and Emmers can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory like few others. From refusing to wrestle Giga Chikadze until midway through the second round to trying to play leglocks with Sabatini, Emmers’ skills are matched only by his penchant for self-destruction.
I’ve flip-flopped a couple of times, but I think I’ll bite the bullet and go with Emmers. Though clearly talented, Askhabov built his record on very limited opposition, and the version of him that last entered the cage lacked any one dominant area that Emmers could blunder into. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Askhabov flying kneed him within 30 seconds, but Emmers’ size and wrestling should let him eke out a decision.
Prediction: Emmers via split decision
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205 lbs.: Ovince Saint Preux vs. Philipe Lins
Once a consistent contender and one-time title challenger, Ovince Saint Preux (26-16) now sits at 3-5 in his last eight bouts. He last saw action in May 2022 when he edged out “Shogun” Mauricio Rua by split decision in their rematch.
“OSP” will enjoy one inch of height and two inches of reach on Philipe Lins (15-5).
Lins struggled out of the UFC gate with consecutive losses to Andrei Arlovski and Tanner Boser. He’s had one fight since, a unanimous decision over Marcin Prachnio in his UFC Light Heavyweight debut, and eight different cancellations.
He has knocked out eight professional foes and submitted another four.
Honestly, the biggest question here is whether Lins will make it to the cage. For all the out-of-cage shenanigans, he’s actually a pretty solid striker, definitely good enough to box up what’s left of Saint Preux. “OSP” still has enough power to end things in one shot, but it can’t make up for his waning speed and stagnant technique. Hell, the guy couldn’t even stop the broken remnants of Rua last time.
Lins just needs to stay busy and stay mindful to win a comfortable decision. I think he’s up for it; expect him to out-work and out-maneuver Saint Preux to a decision victory.
Prediction: Lins via unanimous decisionComment -
Line up change up in main event! Please change new name match up with ANDRADE vs BLANCHFIELD moderators if you care.
I can't edit that..Comment -
gonna try an old favorite-oliver st.preux.also leaning wright and elder.Comment -
Main card write ups -
Light Heavyweight: Zac Pauga vs. Jordan Wright
Best Win for Pauga? Markus Perez For Wright? Jamie Pickett
Current Streak: Pauga lost his UFC debut back in August 2022, whereas Wright has lost three in a row
X-Factor: Both men are shifting weight classes
How these two match up: This match up feels like a chance to rebound for Pauga.
“The Ripper” looked pretty solid in his UFC debut and on The Ultimate Fighter. However, he was also an undersized Heavyweight, so when he did finally get clipped clean in the second round of his debut against Mohammed Usman, that was the end of it. At 34 years of age, it’s time to see whether or not Pauga can swim at the UFC level down at a more fitting weight class.
Wright is a really aggressive striker. He pretty much goes balls-to-the-wall from the first bell in an offensive onslaught that only ends when one man is on the canvas. Unfortunately for “The Beverly Hills Ninja,” that man has been him in five of his seven trips to the Octagon.
Wright always has a shot, as he hits hard and throws with absolutely zero regard for his own well-being. However, it’s not clear what he’s doing up at Light Heavyweight. He never seemed like a huge Middleweight, and now he’s taking on a fighter experienced at taking lumps from Heavyweights. Add in the simple fact that Pauga is the more refined technical striker, and it all seems like a recipe for another knockout loss.
Prediction: Pauga via knockout
Heavyweight: Josh Parisian vs. Jamal Pogues
Best Win for Parisian? Alan Baudot For Pogues? Paulo Renato Jr.
Current Streak: Parisian won his last bout, whereas Pogues debuts following consecutive victories
X-Factor: Potential UFC jitters for Pogues
How these two match up: A pair of Contenders Series Heavyweights will throw down.
Both of these men are scrappers, as well as full-sized for the division. Parisian is the more powerful pure puncher, and last time out, he showed an ability to drag the fight to the canvas and drop hammers from top position if need be. Conversely, Pogues is more of a volume striker, able to pump out combinations of quick punches at distance to pepper his opponent.
I see two very possible outcomes here. On one hand, Parisian is the heavier hitter by a fair margin, having stopped 11 of his 15 wins via knockout. Pogues stands rather tall in the pocket and his whole game relies on extended trades, so the chance of him getting absolutely creamed by a big hook is considerable.
At the same time, plenty of Heavyweights have tried that exact path. Pogues is tough, and his ability to stick opponents with jabs and counter combos does a whole lot to stall their aggression. If the fight escapes the first frame, he’s also a much more consistent source of offense across the entire 15 minutes.
Ultimately, I trust “The Stormtrooper” to avoid the early knockout and win the latter half of this fight in clear fashion for his first UFC win.
Prediction: Pogues via decision
Light Heavyweight: William Knight vs. Marcin Prachnio
Best Win for Knight? Alonzo Menifield For Prachnio? Khalil Rountree Jr
Current Streak: Knight has lost two in a row, while Prachnio lost his last bout
X-Factor: Will Knight make weight?
How these two match up: This is some bizarre Light Heavyweight action.
Six fights into his UFC career, I still don’t know quite what to make of William Knight. He’s wildly powerful, but he bounces between Light Heavyweight and Heavyweight in confusion fashion. His wrestling is his best tool, but if he relies on it too much, he gets very tired and loses to men like Devin Clark. Still, if able to gain top position, he can actually end fights very quickly.
Six fights into his UFC career, I still don’t know quite what to make of Marcin Prachnio. How can the same man rush face-first into losing to Sam Alvey way too late in his career then beat the piss out of Khalil Rountree Jr? It doesn’t make the least bit of sense. At a minimum, we know that Prachnio has some solid power and a diverse offense, though he remains too hittable.
I’m going to get real specific with this prediction. Knight is a shorter wrestler who struggles with his weight cut. Prachnio is a funky European Karate kickboxer-type who explodes into weird strikes. At some point, Prachnio is going to run up into a ripping left body kick that just explodes Knight’s insides. It may be early while both men are fresh, and it may be late when both are tired, but either way, it should end the fight.
Remember Jan Blachowicz vs. Ilir Latifi back in the day? Left kicks are still in vogue nearly a decade later!
Prediction: Prachnio via knockoutComment -
This Blanchfield broad has looked quite good but I'm not sure she is ready for Andrade.
Blanchfield needs to survive the 1st round hurricane...if she does, her chances to win go way up.Comment -
UFC Vegas 69 Odds For The Main Card:
Jessica Andrade (-165) vs. Erin Blanchfield (+140)
I’m a true believer in Blanchfield and have been since before her professional debut, but this is too much, too soon. There are two ways to beat Andrade: either take her apart at a distance or attack head-on with more power or wrestling than she can handle. Blanchfield’s pressure offense is effective and her ground game potent, but she’s not going to bulldoze Andrade the way Zhang Weili and Valentina Shevchenko did. While “Cold Blooded” has incredible potential, a five-round fight with one of the scariest women in the world is too tall a task at this stage of her career.
Zac Pauga (-275) vs. Jordan Wright (+230)
It’s become clear by this point that Wright can’t make up for his fragility and technical deficiencies with raw heart. This would be a rough out even if they were the same size, but Wright’s fighting above his natural weight class against a very capable striker. Pauga’s worth a look even at close to one-in-three odds.
Jamal Pogues (-240) vs. Josh Parisian (+200)
Pogues should win on the strength of his boxing, but he’s just not very impressive as a Heavyweight, and he’s shown a vulnerability to low kicks that Parisian can capitalize on. Best avoided.
William Knight (-115) vs. Marcin Prachnio (-105)
Not touching a fight between these train wrecks.
Alexander Hernandez (-230) vs. Jim Miller (+195)
It’s important to keep in mind that two of the three men Miller beat in his current streak were Erick Gonzalez — one of the worst members of UFC’s Lightweight roster — and the free-falling Donald Cerrone. His knockout of Nikolas Motta and Hernandez’s frontrunner tendencies are enough to make me consider a flier, but keep it small.Comment -
Weigh ins -
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UFC card quality slipping considerably? co-main is fighter with record 5-1 against guy with 3 fight losing streak. Intriguing main event leaning Andrade, Jim Miller vs. Alex Hernandez could be fun but overall very poor card at least Jon Jones coming back that's good.Comment -
It's basically free on ESPN + don't complain gents. If this was PPV then I'd say this is straight up robbery to the fans paying.
We got a couple HW weight banger fights that could be fun. Jim Miller is always in battles also. Couple fights on this card could present a good watch.Comment -
Wow what a card! Lol
Feels like they threw a bunch of bums on this card just to see who the UFC is going to keep and who they are going to cut.Comment -
I'm playing Andrade straight at -115. Fock it....
I think once Blanchfield starts getting hit in the nose and face she will begin to break. I'm not convinced Blanchfield will grapple fock Andrade either. Andrade looks stronger to me.
Last edited by JIBBBY; 02-18-23, 02:33 PM.Comment -
Jibbby-Jabbby, I’m rolling with this for the main event:
1u Jessica Andrade -117
0.2u Jessica Andrade in Round 3 +900
0.2u Jessica Andrade in Round 4 +1200Comment -
Game time! Good luck fellas!
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Cut OSP he's done in this sport. Never even fought back. Just got smoked.. Embarrassing...Comment -
Been a pretty good card so far. Need Askhabov to get a finish next.Comment -
Jim Miller came to fight and was in shape. He even looked game at times. Still took a beating from Alexander.
Gotta say Jim Miller is one tough cookie though.Comment -
Cut William Knight ASAP!
I think he threw this fight on purpose. He absolutely didn't come to fight at all. I've never seen William Knight fight so passive. He literally threw 5 punches the entire 3 rounds tops.
Ship him and OSP back to Africa. Worthless efforts from both. Just showed up for paychecks I'm convinced.
Fixed fights..Comment -
This has been the worst event I've ever seen so far. I'm bored as hell watching this garbage.....Comment -
Blanchfield just saved my night.Comment -
Jibber, now we’re on your LA Kings -1.5 +110
Gonna watch these bums until a police chase starts.Comment -
I knew Blanchfield was good but did not expect her to hold her own with Andrade standing up.
Blanchfield might be the one that dethrones Shevchenko...Comment
