So the month of August comes to an end with UFC 102. What looked to be one of the most action packed months of MMA event, turned out to be mehhhh. UFC 101 had a couple entertaining fights, Affliction folded, Strikeforce’s card was filled with short one-sided matchups, and now UFC 102. Can this event end the month on a good note? We’ll see on Saturday. But onto the betting…hopefully I fair better than my last outing with the Strikeforce card ughhhh. I’m posting my plays at the current lines available. I actually bet most of these last week because the lines weren’t moving in my favour for the guys I liked.
Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Minotauro Nogueira
This is the battle of Old Man Captain America vs. the Brazilian who looks like an old man. If there’s one fighter who has the wear-n-tear to prove he’s been in some epic battles both inside and outside of the cage, its Minotauro. The guy looks like he’s 33 going on 60 but he is the epitome of ‘never quit’. He has taking some serious beatings, but for the most part has found ways to get the W. There aren’t many guys out there who have fought the level of competition that Big Nog has, but Randy Couture comes close. This man is a 46 year old freak of nature! I firmly believe that he will replace Jack LaLanne as the juiceman somewhere down the road. So who to choose? Well I think this fight can go 1 of 2 ways. I’ll start by saying that I believe that Couture has a big advantage based on this fight being in the cage as opposed to a ring. All of Randy’s strengths are tailormade for the octagon. If Randy can get inside of Nog’s reach and get into that dirty boxing clinch that he loves so much, he should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Big Nog up against the cage and scoring some points. As well, we all know Randy is a great wrestler and has effective takedowns, although I’m not sure if he will want to go to the ground against Minotauro’s BJJ. However, I tend to think (or hope that is..) this fight will go another direction. Big Nog has always seemed to do well against opponents that are smaller than him (excluding Fedor, but that’s another story). He has pretty good boxing, especially his jab – and I see him using this effectively in this fight due to the fact that he should enjoy a solid reach advantage. If (Big If here..) he can keep off of the cage, I see him taking this fight by decision. If it goes to the ground, I see him getting a triangle of some sort even though Randy has pretty good submission defense. Either way, I got the younger but older looking man winning. Truth be told I believe Minotauro is a little embarrassed about his past couple performances and I think he knows this is an extremely important fight for him to win. Plus the guy got hit by a bus as a kid and is still here…how can you bet against him?? I’m going light on the units for this one as this pick has a lot of me hoping that Big Nog isn’t finished in it...
Oh ya, before it comes up – I didn’t include the Mir fight in my breakdown as I don’t believe it has any relevance based on the fact that Minotauro was in the hospital for weeks before that fight with a severe staph infection that didn’t allow him to train.
My Pick: Minotauro (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Boom Boom Boom Boom DoDoDoDo….DoDoDoDo….You know what that is?? That’s the Techno Viking rolling into town!!!
Jardine makes his return after a close decision loss to Rampage. Talk about being thrown to the wolves – Jardine has fought the likes of Liddell, Wanderlei, Vera, Rampage, and Forrest Griffin over the past 2 years. Sure he hasn’t won them all – but other than a quick knockout loss to an unknown Houston Alexander and a mauling by the Axe Murderer, he’a s faired pretty well. On the other hand, Thiago Silva’s biggest win would be considered…hmmm…Thomaz Drwal? Now I’m not taking anything away from Thiago – he’s an extremely exciting and talented young fighter, but I just don’t think he has the experience to take out a guy of Jardine’s caliber just yet. He’s been rocked in multiple fights, and his reckless gameplan came to bite him in the Brazilian ass in his last fight against Machida (Although Lyoto makes everyone’s gameplan look bad). I look for Jardine to try and keep this fight standing and pick apart Thiago using his superior technical striking and legkicks. Even if Thiago comes in with the strategy to take the fight to the ground, Jardine has shown he is extremely good at getting back to his feet. Techno Viking by pure scariness.
My Pick: Keith Jardine (-145) 3 units to win 2.1 units
Demian Maia vs. Nathan Marquardt
This is probably the fight I’m looking forward to most on this card. It should be an interesting one as both of these guys are very different fighters. Maia is a Jitz god sent from the heavens to tie everyone in sight into knots. Marquardt is a massive beast of a man that is extremely well rounded in every aspect of the game. Where I think there is an advantage in this fight is Marquardt’s size and strength. This will be the biggest and strongest guy Maia has faced. As well, Marquardt is no slouch in Jitz, having a black belt of his own. Obviously, he’s not on the same level as Maia. But if this fight happens to go to the ground I believe The Great has the skills to be able to avoid the submission attempts that Maia will be throwing around. However, I think Greg Jackson will have a much better gameplan for Marquardt – having him keep it standing where he should have a definite advantage (Although there’s been some word that Maia’s standup has drastically improved while training with Team Wand). I’m sure Maia will try to pull guard a couple of times, but I think Nate has the strength to shrug it off, or go for that imfamous piledriver that he laid out on Thales Leites (Brought back old memories of my WWF days…yeah I said it, I watched WWF as a kid!). I see Marquardt overwhelming Maia in the standup and getting a TKO win in the 2nd.
My Pick: Nate Marquardt (-167) 2.5 units to win 1.58 units
Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt
So Leben makes his “long awaited” return after being suspended for the roids following his fight against Bisping. Here is a snippet from an interview with this wonderful character about his steroid usage:
“A was in a little bit of disbelief. It was something that I wasn't very happy about obviously. I didn't realize it would stay in my system for so long. I'm not an expert on it. It was something I'd done months before, so I thought I was... Ultimately, I paid the price for a mistake I made.”
Doesn’t he sound so regretful? Hey Chris, news flash…when you are coming back from using roids, say something to makes us feel a little sympathetic for you or at least be a little apologetic. Not something along the lines of, “I was pissed that I got caught - shitty ass drug tests!” Ughhhhh. But anyways, everyone knows what Leben is about – throwing sloppy bombs and knocking a brotha out. Personally, I don’t think he will get the chance in this matchup. He’s taking on Rosholt who has tremendous wrestling, albeit little experience. The latter showed up big in his first fight in the octagon when he was getting tapped a minute into the fight by Dan Miller. I’m hoping he learned from that tidbit, and will use his strengths to his advantage; get this fight to the ground and use his strong base to keep it there. I’ll take my chances hoping that he doesn’t get his blocked knocked off before he can get the fight to the ground and keep it there for 3 rounds.
My Pick: Jake Rosholt (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
Todd Duffee vs Tim Hague
If you get a chance (well you will if you see the fight), take a look at what these 2 look like. Do you see any similarities? Nope, me either. Duffee looks like he has been carved out of marble while Hague looks like he rolled out a biker bar. Although Duffee is relatively unknown, he’s being touted as a sure-fire prospect to add to the growing HW division and trains with a great team at ATT. I’ve only been able to find a couple of his fights, but he has definitely impressed me in the limited amount of action I have seen. Tim Hague is a big dude, but I just don’t think he has the ability to hang with Duffee. He’s faced pretty weak competition, and I think Duffee should be able to take this one convincingly.
My Pick: Todd Duffee (-160) 2.5 units to win 1.58 units.
Thats all I got for now folks. Im sure I'll have some losing parlays to add to the mix soon enough.
(Pictures inspired by Bread and Hoff lol)
Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Minotauro Nogueira
This is the battle of Old Man Captain America vs. the Brazilian who looks like an old man. If there’s one fighter who has the wear-n-tear to prove he’s been in some epic battles both inside and outside of the cage, its Minotauro. The guy looks like he’s 33 going on 60 but he is the epitome of ‘never quit’. He has taking some serious beatings, but for the most part has found ways to get the W. There aren’t many guys out there who have fought the level of competition that Big Nog has, but Randy Couture comes close. This man is a 46 year old freak of nature! I firmly believe that he will replace Jack LaLanne as the juiceman somewhere down the road. So who to choose? Well I think this fight can go 1 of 2 ways. I’ll start by saying that I believe that Couture has a big advantage based on this fight being in the cage as opposed to a ring. All of Randy’s strengths are tailormade for the octagon. If Randy can get inside of Nog’s reach and get into that dirty boxing clinch that he loves so much, he should be able to grind out a decision by pushing Big Nog up against the cage and scoring some points. As well, we all know Randy is a great wrestler and has effective takedowns, although I’m not sure if he will want to go to the ground against Minotauro’s BJJ. However, I tend to think (or hope that is..) this fight will go another direction. Big Nog has always seemed to do well against opponents that are smaller than him (excluding Fedor, but that’s another story). He has pretty good boxing, especially his jab – and I see him using this effectively in this fight due to the fact that he should enjoy a solid reach advantage. If (Big If here..) he can keep off of the cage, I see him taking this fight by decision. If it goes to the ground, I see him getting a triangle of some sort even though Randy has pretty good submission defense. Either way, I got the younger but older looking man winning. Truth be told I believe Minotauro is a little embarrassed about his past couple performances and I think he knows this is an extremely important fight for him to win. Plus the guy got hit by a bus as a kid and is still here…how can you bet against him?? I’m going light on the units for this one as this pick has a lot of me hoping that Big Nog isn’t finished in it...
Oh ya, before it comes up – I didn’t include the Mir fight in my breakdown as I don’t believe it has any relevance based on the fact that Minotauro was in the hospital for weeks before that fight with a severe staph infection that didn’t allow him to train.
My Pick: Minotauro (+145) 1 unit to win 1.45 units
Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Boom Boom Boom Boom DoDoDoDo….DoDoDoDo….You know what that is?? That’s the Techno Viking rolling into town!!!
Jardine makes his return after a close decision loss to Rampage. Talk about being thrown to the wolves – Jardine has fought the likes of Liddell, Wanderlei, Vera, Rampage, and Forrest Griffin over the past 2 years. Sure he hasn’t won them all – but other than a quick knockout loss to an unknown Houston Alexander and a mauling by the Axe Murderer, he’a s faired pretty well. On the other hand, Thiago Silva’s biggest win would be considered…hmmm…Thomaz Drwal? Now I’m not taking anything away from Thiago – he’s an extremely exciting and talented young fighter, but I just don’t think he has the experience to take out a guy of Jardine’s caliber just yet. He’s been rocked in multiple fights, and his reckless gameplan came to bite him in the Brazilian ass in his last fight against Machida (Although Lyoto makes everyone’s gameplan look bad). I look for Jardine to try and keep this fight standing and pick apart Thiago using his superior technical striking and legkicks. Even if Thiago comes in with the strategy to take the fight to the ground, Jardine has shown he is extremely good at getting back to his feet. Techno Viking by pure scariness.
My Pick: Keith Jardine (-145) 3 units to win 2.1 units
Demian Maia vs. Nathan Marquardt
This is probably the fight I’m looking forward to most on this card. It should be an interesting one as both of these guys are very different fighters. Maia is a Jitz god sent from the heavens to tie everyone in sight into knots. Marquardt is a massive beast of a man that is extremely well rounded in every aspect of the game. Where I think there is an advantage in this fight is Marquardt’s size and strength. This will be the biggest and strongest guy Maia has faced. As well, Marquardt is no slouch in Jitz, having a black belt of his own. Obviously, he’s not on the same level as Maia. But if this fight happens to go to the ground I believe The Great has the skills to be able to avoid the submission attempts that Maia will be throwing around. However, I think Greg Jackson will have a much better gameplan for Marquardt – having him keep it standing where he should have a definite advantage (Although there’s been some word that Maia’s standup has drastically improved while training with Team Wand). I’m sure Maia will try to pull guard a couple of times, but I think Nate has the strength to shrug it off, or go for that imfamous piledriver that he laid out on Thales Leites (Brought back old memories of my WWF days…yeah I said it, I watched WWF as a kid!). I see Marquardt overwhelming Maia in the standup and getting a TKO win in the 2nd.
My Pick: Nate Marquardt (-167) 2.5 units to win 1.58 units
Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt
So Leben makes his “long awaited” return after being suspended for the roids following his fight against Bisping. Here is a snippet from an interview with this wonderful character about his steroid usage:
“A was in a little bit of disbelief. It was something that I wasn't very happy about obviously. I didn't realize it would stay in my system for so long. I'm not an expert on it. It was something I'd done months before, so I thought I was... Ultimately, I paid the price for a mistake I made.”
Doesn’t he sound so regretful? Hey Chris, news flash…when you are coming back from using roids, say something to makes us feel a little sympathetic for you or at least be a little apologetic. Not something along the lines of, “I was pissed that I got caught - shitty ass drug tests!” Ughhhhh. But anyways, everyone knows what Leben is about – throwing sloppy bombs and knocking a brotha out. Personally, I don’t think he will get the chance in this matchup. He’s taking on Rosholt who has tremendous wrestling, albeit little experience. The latter showed up big in his first fight in the octagon when he was getting tapped a minute into the fight by Dan Miller. I’m hoping he learned from that tidbit, and will use his strengths to his advantage; get this fight to the ground and use his strong base to keep it there. I’ll take my chances hoping that he doesn’t get his blocked knocked off before he can get the fight to the ground and keep it there for 3 rounds.
My Pick: Jake Rosholt (+130) 1.5 units to win 1.95 units
Todd Duffee vs Tim Hague
If you get a chance (well you will if you see the fight), take a look at what these 2 look like. Do you see any similarities? Nope, me either. Duffee looks like he has been carved out of marble while Hague looks like he rolled out a biker bar. Although Duffee is relatively unknown, he’s being touted as a sure-fire prospect to add to the growing HW division and trains with a great team at ATT. I’ve only been able to find a couple of his fights, but he has definitely impressed me in the limited amount of action I have seen. Tim Hague is a big dude, but I just don’t think he has the ability to hang with Duffee. He’s faced pretty weak competition, and I think Duffee should be able to take this one convincingly.
My Pick: Todd Duffee (-160) 2.5 units to win 1.58 units.
Thats all I got for now folks. Im sure I'll have some losing parlays to add to the mix soon enough.
(Pictures inspired by Bread and Hoff lol)
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