UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker (October 02, 2021)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Thiago Santos vs. Johnny Walker
Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland
Alex Oliveira vs. Niko Price
Misha Cirkunov vs. Krzysztof Jotko
Macy Chiasson vs. Aspen Ladd
Alexander Hernandez vs. Mike Breeden

ESPN+ 4:00 pm ET
Jared Gordon vs. Joe Solecki
Casey O’Neill vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Bethe Correia vs. Karol Rosa
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Devonte Smith
Gaetano Pirrello vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade
Johnny Eduardo vs. Alejandro Perez
Stephanie Egger vs. Shanna Young

[PaperTrail07]

Love this card- Early leans

Solecki -120
Holland -155

[magpie878]

Not a Holland fan, but I think he wins this one pretty handily.

[Sanity Check]

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups -






155 lbs.: Devonte Smith vs. Jamie Mullarkey

Devonte Smith (11-2) followed his brutal first-round knockout victory on the Contender Series with two brutal first-round finishes in the Octagon itself, one of which earned him Performance of the Night. Though he suffered a shock knockout loss to Khama Worthy, he successfully returned to action 16 months later by beating down Justin Jaynes.
All of his wins have come inside the distance, 10 of them by knockout.
Jamie Mullarkey (13-4) — the Superfight MMA Lightweight champion — struggled out of the UFC gate with consecutive competitive losses to Brad Riddell and Fares Ziam. His third effort proved a return to form, as he demolished Khama Worthy in just 46 seconds.
Though three inches taller than Smith, he gives up two inches of reach.
While he had a rough matchup in his debut and decidedly underperformed in the Ziam fight, Mullarkey showed why I’m high on him against Worthy. When he’s on, he’s a potent mix of solid striking and grappling bolstered by terrific durability. That figures to be a key weapon against Smith, whose own fight with Worthy demonstrated that he dishes it out a lot better than he can take it.
If Mullarkey can stay on the front foot and threaten with takedowns, I can easily see him taking “King Kage” out early. That said, he’s not invincible; while he absorbed everything Brad Riddell could dish out, he suffered two (technical) knockout losses in the past, and Smith is among the heaviest hitters in a division chock-full of power-punching monsters. Still, so long as Mullarkey comes out with the same fervor he had against “Deathstar,” he’ll check Smith’s chin in the opening round.
Prediction: Mullarkey via first round technical knockout
Related
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135 lbs.: Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Gaetano Pirrello

Brazil’s Douglas Silva de Andrade (26-4) has amassed an even UFC record (4-4) over the past seven years, taking on the likes of Rob Font and Petr Yan along the way. He was last seen dropping a decision to rising prospect Lerone Murphy in Jan. 2021.
He’s scored 19 knockouts as a professional.
Belgium’s Gaetano Pirrello (15-6-1) rode a 5-1 streak into his late-notice UFC debut, which pitted him against dangerous contender Ricky Simon in Jan. 2021. His boldness failed to produce commensurate results, as Simon dominated on the mat en route to a second-round submission finish.
Fourteen of his 15 professional wins have come inside the distance.
Silva de Andrade’s UFC strength of schedule is more wildly inconsistent than almost anyone else; he’s beaten three men who are no longer with the promotion while losing to two top-five Bantamweights and a pair of dangerous Featherweight contenders. The only blip in the pattern was Marlon Vera, who had yet to turn the corner and become the monster he is today.
This is a long-winded way of saying that I have no idea where exactly Silva de Andrade stands among his peers. I do, however, know that he hits like a truck and that Pirrello will almost certainly give him the striking battle he craves. Though Pirrello’s the better technician, Silva de Andrade’s speed and power should net him a brutal finish in the early going.
Prediction: Silva de Andrade via first round technical knockout
Related
Ladd Vs Chiasson Rebooked For Oct. 2

135 lbs.: Alejandro Perez vs. Johnny Eduardo

Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) went from splitting his first two UFC bouts to going unbeaten in his next seven, racking up three finishes along the way. The momentum wasn’t to last, suffering consecutive losses to Cody Stamann and Song Yadong.
This marks his first appearance in nearly 27 months.
The 41-year-old Johnny Eduardo (28-12) has managed just seven Octagon bouts in over a decade under the UFC banner. He last saw action in 2018, starting strong but suffering a submission loss to Nathaniel Wood for his third defeat in four appearances.
He has scored 13 submissions and eight knockouts as a professional.
The frustrating thing about this matchup is that Eduardo has the skillset to to win it comfortably. His pure striking craft outstrips Perez’s by a decent margin, and “Turbo” is further held back by middling wrestling and a shaky chin. Unfortunately for Eduardo, he’s 41 years old and hasn’t fought in more than three years. That alone would make him a hard sell, but he’s also got terrible fight IQ; he was eating Wood alive on the feet, but inexplicably shot directly into a d’arce choke.
That’s not to say Perez is free of fighting sin, as he’s had his share of uninspiring performances, but he strikes me as less likely to physically fall apart or shoot himself in the foot. He’ll either get plugged in the first round or run circles around the aging Brazilian, and the latter seems a bit more likely.
Prediction: Perez via unanimous decision
Related
Walker Vs Santos Set For Sept. 25 Headliner

135 lbs.: Shanna Young vs. Stephanie Egger

Shanna Young (7-3) bounced back from unsuccessful runs on “Contender Series” and Invicta’s “Phoenix Series” to beat Maiju Suotama by decision, claiming her third official win in four appearances. She then stepped up on short notice to face Macy Chiasson, who used her considerable size advantage to overpower Young over the distance.
“The Shanimal” fights for the first time in more than 19 months.
Just one month after scoring her third consecutive win, Stephanie Egger (5-2) accepted the call to fight Tracy Cortez on late notice. Cortez proved too much for the Swiss judoka, out-grappling her to a comfortable decision win.
She has knocked out and submitted two opponents apiece.
This one boils down to distance. At range, Young’s speed, versatility, and fluidity blow Egger’s out of the water. Conversely, Egger’s judo looks like a dominating weapon on the inside, and Young’s struggles to maintain range could give Egger opportunities to bring it to bear.
Though Young’s losses to Alpar and Chiasson should give Egger hope, “The Shanimal” just has too big an edge on the feet, and Egger’s inability to handle Cortez in the clinch has me concerned about her grappling’s effectiveness at the highest level. Young takes her apart for her first UFC victory.
Prediction: Young via unanimous decision



155 lbs.: Joe Solecki vs. Jared Gordon

Three fights after suffering a knockout loss to future “Contender Series” graduate Nikolas Motta, Joe Solecki (11-2) put forth a standout performance on the program, choking out James Wallace to earn himself a contract. He’s been similarly successful in the Octagon, where he’s put together a three-fight win streak.
All eight of his professional stoppage wins have come in the first round.
Jared Gordon (17-4) announced his arrival to UFC with strong victories over Michel Quinones and Hacran Dias, only to drop three of his next four. Recent efforts proved more successful, overwhelming Chris Fishgold and Danny Chavez in impressive fashion.
“Flash” gives up 2.5 inches of reach to Solecki.
If Gordon could consistently make Featherweight, he’d be a real problem for the division. I’m not quite as sold as him at Lightweight, where he’s suffered three vicious knockout losses and struggled to consistently impose his wrestling. Though Solecki pushes a far more mellow pace than Gordon, he’s skilled enough on the feet and ground to give Gordon fits if “Flash” can’t impose his physicality.
Admittedly, I could be overestimating Solecki a bit. That’s because Gordon’s definitely the more tested of the two and you can’t put too much stock in wins over Matt Wiman and Jim Miller at this stage of their careers. Still, I like Solecki to hold his own on the feet and control the wrestling for the win.
Prediction: Solecki via unanimous decision
Related
Stream UFC, Fight Night, PPV Events and Best of UFC Archives on ESPN+

125 lbs.: Antonina Shevchenko vs. Casey O’Neill

Antonina Shevchenko (9-3) “La Pantera” punched her ticket to UFC by mauling Jaimee Nievera on “Contender Series,” then proved she belonged with a decision over Ji Yeon Kim in her promotional debut. She has since alternated losses and wins, most recently suffering her first-ever submission defeat to Andrea Lee.
Her four professional stoppages include three by (technical) knockout.
Casey O’Neill (7-0) cut her teeth on the Australian circuit before a one-fight sting in UAE Warriors saw her score her first professional (technical) knockout. She’s continued her finishing ways in the Octagon by pounding out Shana Dobson and choking out Lara Procopio during her 2021 campaign.
“King” stands two inches shorter than Shevchenko, but boasts a two-inch reach advantage.
As dangerous as she is on the feet, Shevchenko’s ground game just hasn’t caught up. And, seeing as she’s now 36 years old, I’m not sure it ever will. That’s more than a little problematic against O’Neill, a top-of-the-line ground artist with the skill and durability to keep up with Shevchenko in the striking. For my money, the 23-year-old “King” is one of the best up-and-comers in the division alongside Manon Fiorot, and she’s got the exact toolset necessary to exploit Shevchenko’s shortcomings as others have before.
None of this is to say that Shevchenko can’t win this, especially if she can force O’Neill into extended clinch exchanges. That’d be a long shot at the best of times, though, and considering the way O’Neill overpowered an expert grappler and capable striker in Procopio, “King’s” got too much going her way for me to bank on a long shot. In the end, she swarms Shevchenko on the mat for a mid-round finish.
Prediction: O’Neill via second round submission
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135 lbs.: Bethe Correia vs. Karol Rosa

With her career seemingly on the ropes after a 1-4-1 skid, Bethe Correia (11-5-1) revitalized it by upsetting Sijara Eubanks in Mexico City, Mexico. “Pitbull” couldn’t quite do the same to Pannie Kianzad, who defeated her by decision 10 months later.
This will be her first fight in 14 months.
Assorted misfortunes have held Karol Rosa (14-3) to just three fights in the last three years, though she’s emerged victorious each time. Her most recent effort saw her take a decision over late-notice foe Joselyne Edwards in Feb. 2021.
She has knocked out four opponents and submitted another two.
Even acknowledging that Correia’s a better fighter than her poor record and meme status would suggest, I’m not sure what she does to win this one. “Pitbull” has long made up for her lack of technique with toughness and tenacity, a strategy that doesn’t figure to work out against a crisper and higher-volume boxer in Rosa. Rosa isn’t going to wilt when Correia refuses to drop and figures to land more and more telling strikes.
Rosa’s a problem for even ranked Bantamweights ... much less game-but-faded stalwarts like “Pitbull.” Correia is game enough to keep it competitive and push the action for all 15 minutes, but expect Rosa to rack up another 100+ significant strikes in a dominant victory.
Prediction: Rosa via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Main card -





Welterweight: Alex Oliveira vs. Niko Price

Best Win for Oliveira? Carlos Condit For Price? Tim Means
Current Streak: Oliveira has lost two in a row, while Price is winless in his last three (one of those fights being a draw)
X-Factor: Oliveira is a bit of a frontrunner
How these two match up: Sure, these two have been struggling lately, but this is absolutely going to be an awesome fight.
The Brazilian “Cowboy” is never in a boring fight. Oliveira is wildly athletic and technically limited — such a fun combination. On his feet, Oliveira shocks opponents with his ability to blast powerful kicks and spring forward with knockout punches, and he’s also a real threat with his wrestling as well.
Price has a bit of awkwardness to his overall fighting style, but the man also has giant shoulders and lunchboxes for hands! Price hits stupid hard and is never out of a fight, and if things do hit the mat, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt is deceptively tricky.
Unless he can really dominate with his wrestling, Oliveira probably has five minutes to win this fight. In general, Oliveira has been fading more often down the stretch, particularly when the going gets tough. Against a hard-nosed scrapper like Price, the fight will get ugly and gritty if it lasts long enough, and that war of attrition will almost certainly favor “The Hybrid.”
So, there’s the question at hand: can Oliveira knock his foe out in the first or completely control him on the canvas? The knockout is definitely possible. Oliveira drops bombs ... and Price is far from un-hittable. The latter seems far less likely, as Price is too good of a scramble to remain contained indefinitely.
Still, considering Price is plenty capable of scoring an early knockout himself, betting on the early Oliveira stoppage seems unwise. More likely, this fight drags into the second round, and Price begins to take over and do major damage.
Prediction: Price via knockout
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---

Middleweight: Misha Cirkunov vs. Krzysztof Jotko

Best Win for Cirkunov? Nikita Krylov For Jotko? Thales Leites
Current Streak: Both men came up short last time out
X-Factor: Cirkunov is moving to Middleweight for the first time
How these two match up: A pair of quality European veterans will throw down.
Cirkunov really has all the skills to be a top contender. The Canadian (by way of Latvia) has a great wrestling background and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. Plus, the Southpaw has some power on his feet, though his striking defense/durability have proven an issue in recent losses. Oddly enough, size did not seem to be a limiting factor at 205 pounds, but perhaps Cirkunov knows something we do not.
Jotko is similarly well-rounded, more of a grappler but plenty competent on his feet as well. In general, Jotko has done well vs. fellow jiu-jitsu fighters, struggling more against top-notch sprawl-and-brawl fighters.
This is a hard one to predict. On paper, Cirkunov is the more dangerous grappler, likely holds an edge in the wrestling, and seemingly hits harder. At the same time, it’s such a mystery what he’ll look like at 185 pounds, particularly since he’s not young at 34 years old.
The chance of a wonky weight cut is high.
If Cirkunov is at his best, I like his chances. As is, I have to assume that Jotko will keep his feet moving and maintain a higher level of volume. Furthermore, Cirkunov is more likely to be chinny minus an additional 20 pounds, and Jotko has surprised his foes with power punches in the past.
Prediction: Jotko via decision
Related
Predictions! UFC Vegas 38 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 1

Predictions! UFC Vegas 38 ‘Prelims’ Preview - Pt. 2

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Women’s Bantamweight: Aspen Ladd vs. Macy Chiasson

Best Win for Ladd? Yana Kunitskaya For Chiasson? Marion Reneau
Current Streak: Ladd returned to the win column last time out, whereas Chiasson has won two straight
X-Factor: Can Chiasson match Ladd’s strength?
How these two match up: Two of Bantamweight’s strongest ladies will throw down.
As evidenced by her intense weight cuts, Ladd is one of the largest women competing at 135 pounds. Her physicality is a major edge in wrestling exchanges, and she’s shown some quality pop in her hands as well. When able to gain top position, Ladd often finishes her opponents quickly.
A former Featherweight, Chiasson also imposes her physicality on her opposition. On the whole, Chiasson is pretty slick on her feet, particularly in the clinch, and she really excels at swarming wounded or fading opponents.
Ladd is going to wrestle, and it’s likely going to work, at least early on. Really, the big question here is whether or not Chiasson can survive on the mat. If she can extend the bout, Ladd’s wrestling-based style and weight cut definitely do drain her as the fight wears on.
Chiasson has the size and clinch skills to really give Ladd trouble if those takedowns start failing to land. The path to victory is there ... but it’s hard to go against the talented 26 year old, who is still the frontrunner as the division’s future.
Prediction: Ladd via decision

[Sanity Check]

LeMartin picks

Oliveira +155
Santos -151

[hankcream]

Santos blew out his knees and everything else he had in the Jon Jones fight and Walker is finally getting serious & looks in phenomenal shape.

5 units Johnny Walker +133
3 units Johnny Walker ITD +175

[JIBBBY]

Santos blew out his knees and everything else he had in the Jon Jones fight and Walker is finally getting serious & looks in phenomenal shape.

5 units Johnny Walker +133
3 units Johnny Walker ITD +175

Walker is a fighting clown show and gasses easily if he doesn't finish. I don't know how to bet this fight? Maybe the Under 2.5 and pay the price.

[UncleChael]

We taking Lima or MVP tomorrow afternoon??!???

[JIBBBY]

We taking Lima or MVP tomorrow afternoon??!???

MVP for me. Rematch and always bet on black theory in play here. MVP is on a winning streak also, Lima is not. I doubt MVP gets dropped again like this.

https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-Page-91937

[magpie878]

We taking Lima or MVP tomorrow afternoon??!???

It's THIS afternoon. And that's a damn near pick-em... I'd stay cheap if you're betting that one.

[magpie878]

MVP for me. Rematch and always bet on black theory in play here. MVP is on a winning streak also, Lima is not. I doubt MVP gets dropped again like this.





https://www.sherdog.com/fighter/Michael-Page-91937

I am absolutely NOT saying Lima will win, but put it in context... his 2-fight "losing streak" was to Mousasi in Lima's middleweight debut for a vacant belt and lost his welterweight belt to Amosov by decision. Top-tier guys.

My GUESS is MVP, but I'm not confident at all.

[UncleChael]

It's THIS afternoon. And that's a damn near pick-em... I'd stay cheap if you're betting that one.

Whoops. They lost me at it's a 3 round main event.

[PaperTrail07]

Lima-MVP has not beat anyone near his level...

We taking Lima or MVP tomorrow afternoon??!???

[PaperTrail07]

Only possible way you could ever take MVp would be +285 by decision-via hit and run

I am absolutely NOT saying Lima will win, but put it in context... his 2-fight "losing streak" was to Mousasi in Lima's middleweight debut for a vacant belt and lost his welterweight belt to Amosov by decision. Top-tier guys.

My GUESS is MVP, but I'm not confident at all.

[PaperTrail07]

I mean unless MVP has learned to get up, he also pulls guard when taken down.....not great for a 3 rounder...

[magpie878]

I definitely like the over, but odds are probably juiced

[PaperTrail07]

2.5 -120, 1.5 -180....

I definitely like the over, but odds are probably juiced

[magpie878]

Wow. DK has going the distance at +110.

This has decision written all over it, but I'd also expect worse odds on that bet.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Looks like the money is coming in on MVP, line flipped Lima now a +105 dog at most books...

[PaperTrail07]

MVP will try to steal this with activity.....I also think most that $ is from oversea's....half the mma fans dont even know this is happening lol....Lima by dec is also a likely outcome.///

Looks like the money is coming in on MVP, line flipped Lima now a +105 dog at most books...

[magpie878]

Last check, Page was-135 on lousy DK

[Sanity Check]

I think bellator 267 is live now. On tape delay for USA.

MVP did a good job with wrist control, from his back, in the last fight. Wish the fight had gone longer to know if he burned his arms out using that defense. Had MVP winning until the KO.

Some of the bellator guys seem depressed, now that UFC pay is on the rise thanks to the ESPN tv deal.

[JIBBBY]

Prelims are live and on now. Can watch on youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgLJTyzt9X0

[Demonata]

Prelims are live and on now. Can watch on youtube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgLJTyzt9X0

Who we betting in bellator jibby?

[JIBBBY]

Who we betting in bellator jibby?

Taking favorites in parlays. So far so good in the Prelims.

Need Trainer coming up to close out a parlay and that's it for me. Was gonna bet on MVP but decided not to. Lima hit's hard and is tough as nails. I still think MVP wins by decision though. I may still bet on that prop only. Game time decision.

[PaperTrail07]

You know we got action

Taking favorites in parlays. So far so good in the Prelims.

Need Trainer coming up to close out a parlay and that's it for me. Was gonna bet on MVP but decided not to. Lima hit's hard and is tough as nails. I still think MVP wins by decision though. I may still bet on that prop only. Game time decision.

[UncleChael]

MVP can only fight that karate style jumping in an out while Lima goes classic Muay Thai. I'm on Lima.

[Demonata]

3 eyepokes by fisher and it's only a no contest! Fuking bullshit! Robert whiteford was winnign easily too!

[PaperTrail07]

Nice to see Bellator is CLEARLY rigged LOL.....make it a 3 round in the UK lol.....he still lost lol....

[PaperTrail07]

in your face fuckery lol....

[JIBBBY]

That was a UK robbery but I'll take it. MVP by decision +250 prop for small cashes. I had to try it.

MVP is all show no go. Any solid wrestler will destroy that clown on the ground.

[UncleChael]

MVP can only fight that karate style jumping in an out while Lima goes classic Muay Thai. I'm on Lima.

I can't believe what I just heard and watched.
MVP won the first round after being on his back for the last 2:15 minutes, alright Bellator.

[PaperTrail07]

pulling guard grabbing gloves smh what a clown show

I can't believe what I just heard and watched.
MVP won the first round after being on his back for the last 2:15 minutes, alright Bellator.