UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega (September 25, 2021)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Pay-per-view 10:00 pm Et
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Brian Ortega (for featherweight title)
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Lauren Murphy (for flyweight title)
Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo

ESPN+ 8:00 pm ET
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Marlon Moraes
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus
Ricky Simon vs. Timur Valiev
Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

ESPN+ 6:00 pm ET
Manon Fiorot vs Mayra Bueno Silva
Karl Roberson vs. Nick Maximov
Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner
Omar Morales vs Jonathan Pearce
Martin Sano vs Matthew Semelsberger
Ricky Simon vs Timur Valiev

[magpie878]

Is Calvillo as bad as I remember?

[Demonata]

So excited for this card!!! Gooo nick diaz!!!

[magpie878]

Shevchenko ITD most likely. Quite possibly with it ending between rounds. Some kind of Murphy getting battered ending.

Leaning Ortega, if he's actually the "2.0" I keep reading about... he looked great against Zombie, and has the tools to win this.

Blaydes should win but I won't bet him this time. I've never see Diaz fight live and he's been away a long time. I'm going Lawler but not with a lot of confidence.

[hankcream]

Has anyone checked out Jessica Andrade's OnlyFans page? I'm afraid to look but it sounds like she's making money

[SEKTAUR]

All in on Alex the great. He’s gonna destroy Ortega.

[magpie878]

All in on Alex the great. He’s gonna destroy Ortega.

Volkanovski is a beast. But what's your reasoning behind Ortega getting "destroyed"?

[Sanity Check]

ESPN is trying to get in on the gambling scene.

Which seems to be exploding atm.

[PaperTrail07]

Leaning Volk as well.....rewatching the Ortega Holloway convinced me.....

Volkanovski is a beast. But what's your reasoning behind Ortega getting "destroyed"?

[UncleChael]

If GSP can comeback and beat Bisping. Nick can comeback and beat Robbie. #WARDIAZ

[hankcream]

Is Diaz having a mental breakdown? He thinks he should be fighting Usman

[hankcream]

Interesting lines @ BOL:
Vulkanowski -175 Ortega +150
Ortega ITD +265
Volkanowski ITD +325

I think Volkanowski is going to go all out to finish the California beach bum

2 units Volkanowski ITD +325

[Sanity Check]

LeMartin picks

Shevchenko ITD -275
Volkanovski +120

[magpie878]

Interesting lines @ BOL:
Vulkanowski -175 Ortega +150
Ortega ITD +265
Volkanowski ITD +325

I think Volkanowski is going to go all out to finish the California beach bum

2 units Volkanowski ITD +325

I'm guessing it's because 6 of the last 8 Volkanovski matches have gone the distance (and 2 for 2 distance in 5-rounders).

Very much looking forward to Joshua/Usyk early then UFC later!

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups - MMA MANIA




155 lbs.: Uros Medic vs. Jalin Turner

Uros Medic (7-0) — a career-long veteran of Alaska FC — kept his finishing streak going with a two-minute demolition of Mikey Gonzalez on the Contender Series. He was even more efficient in the UFC itself, battering Aalon Cruz into submission in just 100 seconds.
None of his professional fights have lasted more than six minutes.
Following a successful appearance on “Contender Series” that nonetheless failed to earn him a contract, Jalin Turner (10-5) stepped up on short notice to face Vicente Luque, who stopped him late in the first round. He’s gone on to win three of his next four, each of those victories by stoppage within two rounds.
“The Tarantula” stands two inches taller than Medic and boasts a 4.5-inch reach advantage.
It’s hard to argue that Medic doesn’t pass the eye test; “The Doctor’s” looked like a genuine monster on the feet and continues to improve under the tutelage of Rafael Cordeiro. That said, he’s definitely unproven. Cruz, the best opponent of his career by far, went winless in the Octagon and spent most of his career at Featherweight. Turner hasn’t exactly beaten a who’s-who of UFC foes himself, but he’s been tested quite a bit more than Medic, and that’s on top of his huge reach advantage and crushing power.
Though Turner doesn’t have the wrestling to exploit Medic’s most glaring weakness, I’m going with the more proven product. Another blitz from Medic wouldn’t be too outlandish, especially since Turner’s been stopped by strikes three times, but I like Turner to weather the storm, take Medic into deep waters, and put him down.
Prediction: Turner via second round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Manon Fiorot vs. Mayra Bueno Silva

Following a controversial decision loss in her professional debut, France’s Manon Fiorot (7-1) claimed titles in EFC and UAE Warriors en route to UFC. She has been similarly successful in the Octagon, stopping Victoria Leonardo and Tabatha Ricci during her 2021 campaign.
“Beast” has knocked out five opponents in a row and six overall.
Mayra Bueno Silva (7-1-1) followed her first-round submission on the Contender Series with a first-round submission in her UFC debut, only to spend nearly 18 months on the sideline and drop a decision to Maryna Moroz upon her return. She returned to the win column by tapping Mara Borella, then fought to a gritty draw against Montana De La Rosa.
“Sheetara” has scored five submission wins as a professional.
It’s a bit surprising, though definitely not unwelcome, that UFC elected to pit such entertaining and promising members of a talent-starved division against one another. At least Silva can take solace in the fact that she’s ostensibly got plenty of time to make another run after Fiorot kicks her back down the latter.
I’ve made no secret of how highly I rate Fiorot, and while wins over Leonardo and Ricci do not a contender make, she’s got the goods to beat Silva. “The Beast’s” mobile, powerful kickboxing attack figures to work well against the Brazilian’s straightforward stalking, and the former has demonstrated more than enough wrestling skill to take Silva’s lethal submission game out of the equation. So long as Fiorot doesn’t initiate the grappling herself or linger in the pocket in pursuit of a finish, she takes “Sheetara” apart at long range to make it 3-0 in UFC.
Prediction: Fiorot via unanimous decision
Related
Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 266: ‘Volkanovski Vs. Ortega’

185 lbs.: Karl Roberson vs. Nick Maximov

Karl Roberson (9-4) — half of just the third-ever “Contender Series” main event — punched his ticket to the world’s largest fight promotion by knocking out Ryan Spann in just 15 seconds. He claimed victory in four of first six UFC appearances, but enters the cage this Saturday on the heels of two consecutive submission defeats.
“Baby K” gives up two inches of reach to Maximov despite being the taller man.
Submission Underground regular Nick Maximov (6-0) went 6-0 in 3.5 months as a mixed martial arts (MMA) amateur before turning pro. He ended his first five professional bouts inside the distance to set up a spot in “Contender Series,” where he overcame a 54-pound weight disadvantage to win a decision over Oscar Cota.
He has submitted three professional foes and knocked out two others.
While Roberson’s grappling improvement has been laudable, it’s led to seem unfortunate decision-making. He nearly threw away a win against Wellington Turman by engaging the Brazilian in his wheelhouse, and his attempt to go submission-for-submission with Brendan Allen earned him a nasty heel hook for his troubles.
This is something of a competency test for his fight IQ. That’s because Maximov has no striking to speak of and is more of a determined wrestler than a highly skilled one. If Roberson remembers that he’s a kickboxer and keeps it standing, he’ll eat the Octagon newbie alive. If he tries to get cute, it’ll be either his third tapout loss in a row or a long and frustrating decision loss spent entirely on the bottom. I’ll give Roberson the benefit of the doubt and say he clobbers Maximov with the same Travis Browne elbows he used to finish Spann and nearly stop Glover Teixeira.
Prediction: Roberson via first round technical knockout
Related
MMA Fans To The Rescue!

170 lbs.: Matthew Semelsberger vs. Martin Sano

After out-working Carlton Minus to a decision in his Octagon debut, Matthew Semelsberger (8-3) returned to his finishing ways with a 16-second wipeout of Jason Witt that earned him “Performance of the Night.” This set up a clash with Khaos Williams, who used a busy striking attack to snap Semelsberger’s five-fight win streak.
“Semi the Jedi” has ended six professional fights inside the distance, five of them by knockout.
A 4-0 professional start sent Martin Sano (4-2-1) to World Series of Fighting (WSOF), where he fell to Dominic Waters in his sole promotional appearance. He then took his talents to Bellator, where he suffered a knockout loss to Don Mohammed and subsequently drew with Diego Herzog.
This marks his first fight in 4.5 years.
I know that we’re long past the point where UFC can call itself a meritocracy with a straight face, but Sano’s signing is particularly egregious. He’s 0-2-1 in his last three, hasn’t won since 2014, and looked mediocre at best in recent efforts. He’s here because he trains with Nick Diaz, not because he’s a world-class mixed martial artist.
The Sano from 2017 didn’t look much better than the Sano from 2014, and Semelsberger would annihilate either of them on the feet. Sano’s little more than an overeager slugger with a good gas tank; Semelsberger hits more than hard enough to punish his poor defense. Barring unbelievable behind-the-scenes improvement on Sano’s part, Semelsberger lamps him quick.
Prediction: Semelsberger via first round technical knockout
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145 lbs.: Jonathan Pearce vs. Omar Morales

Jonathan Pearce (10-4) went from losing three straight to stopping his next five opponents, culminating in a beatdown of Jacob Rosales on “Contender Series.” Though he suffered an upset loss to Joe Lauzon in his UFC debut, he returned to form by stopping Kai Kamaka III 13 months later.
All of his wins since his second pro fight have come by stoppage, seven of them via knockout.
Venezuela’s Omar Morales (11-1) smashed LFA champion, Harvey Park, on “Contender Series,” then followed that up with consecutive decisions over Dong Hyun Ma and Gabriel Benitez. Then came a drop to Featherweight, where he’s fallen to Giga Chikadze and outstruck Shane Young in successive efforts.
He is one inch shorter than Pearce, but will enjoy a 2.5-inch reach advantage.
I’ve picked Pearce’s last two fights incorrectly, which bodes ill for his chances here, but I do think he’s got what it takes to win. He’s by far the best grappler Morales has yet faced in the Octagon, and while he’s got some defensive issues and could be vulnerable to Morales’ signature low kicks, he’s much more active than the content-to-cruise “Venezuelan Fighter.” Morales’ reticence to push the pace looks like a key flaw here, as Pearce excels when he’s setting the tempo and walking his opponent down.
It’s all moot if Morales turns Pearce’s lead calf to jelly, of course, but Pearce’s toughness and persistence figure to pay dividends. Steady takedown attempts, constant aggression, and a deep gas tank carry him to a late ground-and-pound stoppage.
Prediction: Pearce via third round technical knockout



135 lbs.: Marlon Moraes vs. Merab Dvalishvili

Marlon Moraes (23-8-1) went from losing to Raphael Assuncao in his UFC debut and scraping out a split decision over John Dodson to smashing three elite Bantamweight contenders in less than one round apiece. “Magic” now finds himself in a 1-3 hole, however, most recently suffering knockout defeats against Cory Sandhagen and Rob Font.
He has knocked out 10 opponents and submitted another six.
Serra-Longo’s Merab Dvalishvili (13-4) had his share of misfortune early in his UFC career, dropping a questionable split decision to Frankie Saenz and subsequently fell victim to a controversial submission against Ricky Simon. He’s since put that behind him with six consecutive victories, including a win over Cody Stamann in his most recent effort.
He’ll have one inch of reach on Moraes.
I can’t think of a more punishing crucible for Moraes at the moment. His defensive lapses and cardio issues have become unignorable, and there’s no way he can return to contender status without fixing them. Who better to test his hypothetical improvement than the inhuman Dvalishvili, for whom fatigue is something that happens to other people?
Moraes has great takedown defense and exponentially better striking than Dvalishvili when he’s fresh, but after his recent struggles, I absolutely do not trust him to stay fresh when subjected to this sort of pace. Unless the 33-year-old fundamentally reinvented himself during the last nine months, Dvalishvili tanks his way through a rough first round to smother him on the mat.
Prediction: Dvalishvili via unanimous decision
Related
Watch ‘Countdown’ To UFC 266: ‘Volkanovski Vs. Ortega’

155 lbs.: Dan Hooker vs. Nasrat Haqparast

The move for Dan Hooker (20-10) from 145 to 155 pounds proved to be just what he needed, as “Hangman” won seven of his next eight to secure a spot among the Lightweight contenders. Recent efforts proved less successful, dropping a decision to Dustin Poirier and suffering a knockout loss to Michael Chandler.
His 17 professional finishes are split 10/7 between knockouts and submissions.
Despite scoring multiple knockdowns, the Octagon debut for Nasrat Haqparast (13-3) saw him fall to Marcin Held for his first defeat since his professional debut. He has since gone 5-1, most recently boxing up late replacement Rafa Garcia in March 2021.
He gives up two inches of height and 3.5 inches of reach to Hooker.
This fight is essentially a trial-by-fire for Hooker’s durability. He’s absorbed horrifying amounts of damage during his UFC tenure, including 263 combined significant strikes from brutal finishers in Paul Felder and Dustin Poirier, and his historically indestructible chin finally gave out on him against Chandler. Haqparast’s single UFC finish in seven bouts belies the startling speed and power in his hands; in other words, if Hooker can’t take strikes like he used to, Haqparast’s got more than enough thump to put him down.
I’ve flip-flopped a few times, but you know what? I think I’ve got Haqparast for the upset. Hooker’s lax defense means he needs to be invincible for his style to function, and the Chandler debacle has me thinking that isn’t the case anymore. In the end, Haqparast puts him down in one.
Prediction: Haqparast via first round technical knockout
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265 lbs.: Shamil Abdurakhimov vs. Chris Daukaus

This will be the third time in the last two months that these two were booked to fight each other and my thoughts haven’t changed, so let’s just go ahead and use what I already wrote.
Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-5) bounced back from a UFC debut loss to Timothy Johnson by winning five of his next six, including knockouts of Chase Sherman and Marcin Tybura. This led to a UFC 242 main card slot opposite Curtis Blaydes, who overpowered “Abrek” on the mat en route to a second-round stoppage.
This will be his first fight in almost two years.
While he proved unsuccessful in his quest to claim the Cage Fury Heavyweight title, Chris Daukaus (11-3) ultimately joined brother Kyle in the Octagon in 2019. He’s been nothing if not efficient there, scoring three consecutive first-round knockouts and netting two “Performance of the Night” bonuses along the way.
His 10 stoppage wins include nine by knockout..
Between his ground-and-pound losses and occasional tendency to stink out the joint, it’s easy to forget that Abdurakhimov is a genuinely solid striker with better movement and speed than the majority of the division. He’s by far the best standup artist Daukaus has yet faced in the Octagon and could very well potshot his way to victory.
At the same time, he’s been out since 2019 and just turned 40, both of which bode ill for someone so reliant on his legs. Between those worries and the fact that Daukaus can match his hand speed, I like the younger, fresher man to turn the lights out sometime before the midpoint.
Prediction: Daukaus via second round technical knockout
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125 lbs.: Roxanne Modafferi vs. Taila Santos

Roxanne Modafferi (25-19) — a two-time The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) competitor — put together a 3-2 run that saw her score sizable upsets of Antonina Shevchenko, Maycee Barber and Andrea Lee. She couldn’t do the same to Viviane Araujo, however, suffering a unanimous decision loss in Jan. 2021.
She has scored six professional knockouts and submissions apiece.
“Contender Series” graduate, Taila Santos (17-1), lost her undefeated record in her UFC debut, which saw Mara Borella grapple her way to a split decision victory. Injury and the pandemic kept her out of action for the next 17 months, though she’s made up for lost time with victories over Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson.
She steps in for the injured Tatiana Suarez on one month’s notice.
Here’s an interesting factoid for you: Modafferi has gone nine consecutive fights without ever winning or losing two straight. It’s not like she’s alternating between good and bad opponents, either, as her level of competition has stayed consistently high. That streak demands a victory here, but I can’t bring myself to overlook Santos’ enormous edge in striking and increasingly potent wrestling.
Even with her understated improvements, Modafferi is hopelessly out-gunned on the feet, and I don’t see her dragging Santos to the mat when a top-notch takedown artist like Robertson failed to do so. The universe needs to personally intervene to keep Modafferi’s pattern going, because if it doesn’t, Santos sprawls-and-brawls her way to a wide victory while potentially landing her own takedowns for good measure.
Prediction: Santos via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Betting odds link suggestions. https://www.mmamania.com/2021/9/22/2...sbook-espn-ppv

[magpie878]

DraftKings has an odds boost of "Ortega gets more takedowns and wins the match" at +650.

Hypothetically, of course, wouldn't one THINK that if Ortega won, he'd have more takedowns, even though he has a lower average?

(Article I just read says Volkanovski averages 2.09 compared to 0.80, surprisingly).

Almost feels like my cheapskate bet on Ortega might be better on that boost instead of ML.

[povis]

Chad Mendes got some takedowns again Volk it would make sense for Ortega to attempt take fight to the ground. Keep in mind that jumping guillotine for instance is takedown counter and doesn't count a as takedown. Ortega by finish or Volk by dec. imo the most likely outcomes.

[JIBBBY]

Is Diaz having a mental breakdown? He thinks he should be fighting Usman

Nick Diaz is totally mental. OMG. He needs to be on meds.

[Sanity Check]

Does Diaz call out Jake Paul if he wins?

Chael said he plans to call out Khabib.

Masvidal callout is another possibility.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega Picks:
Omar Morales Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Matt Semelsberger Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nick Maximov Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Jalin Turner Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Taila Santos Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Chris Daukaus Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nasrat Haqparast Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Merab Dvalishvili Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jessica Andrade Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Curtis Blaydes Round 2 TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Nick Diaz Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Valentina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)
Alexander Volkanovski Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)

[Hugo de Naranja]

Here's my picks for this event. GL all!

[Fedor]

I'm excited about Diaz. Not my normal type of fave fighter, but I really like his fighting style, and can kinda understand his mental situation. I like:

Volk ITD
Diaz (heart play)
Others? I got time to decide...

[richie360]

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega Picks:
Omar Morales Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Matt Semelsberger Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nick Maximov Round 2 Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Jalin Turner Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Taila Santos Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Chris Daukaus Round 1 TKO (Punches)
Nasrat Haqparast Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Merab Dvalishvili Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Jessica Andrade Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Curtis Blaydes Round 2 TKO (Elbows and Punches)
Nick Diaz Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Valentina Shevchenko Unanimous Decision (50-45 x3)
Alexander Volkanovski Unanimous Decision (49-46 x3)

Just a heads up that the Diaz vs Lawler fight is a five rounder

[UncleChael]

Tell me the last time you heard of a "5 round, middle of the card, non title fight?" I'll give you the answer. Never till you met Nick Diaz.

[magpie878]

Tell me the last time you heard of a "5 round, middle of the card, non title fight?" I'll give you the answer. Never till you met Nick Diaz.

The answer is a few months ago at UFC 263. Nick's, and this one, certainly aren't middle of the cards, they're both the final match before two title matches. That one was Nate Diaz and Leon Edwards.

[Demonata]

So excited for this card!!!!

[frankieunits2685]

Tell me the last time you heard of a "5 round, middle of the card, non title fight?" I'll give you the answer. Never till you met Nick Diaz.

*Nate Diaz

[JIBBBY]

I'm rooting and betting on Ruthless Robbie Lawler in this one. Robbie has been fighting, Nick has not in the past 5 years. Just that simple. Going with Ruthless because he's been the more active fighter and it's a grudge rematch. Not confident though.

On a side note -

I'm convinced if the Diaz brothers didn't get into MMA both would either be in jail or cooking meth today in some trailer park.

[hankcream]

UFC 266 plays:
1.5 units Morales -150
1 unit Medic by KO/TKO/DQ +150
4 units Hooker -145
.25 units Moraes by KO/TKO/DQ +435
2 units Lawler ITD + 235
2 units Volkanowski ITD +235

BOL everyone

[Kermit]

Let's see if we can start this off positive with JSP ITD +350

[TheLastOlympian7]

its fight time bros, cant wait, always blessed for fights
Omar Morales -150 first play of the day

[Kermit]

Let's see if we can start this off positive with JSP ITD +350

Nice start.

[Kermit]

Let's get this parlay started with Semelsberger ITD.

[Kermit]

That was quick.