UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum (April 17, 2021)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN 10:00 pm ET
Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum
Drakkar Klose vs. Jeremy Stephens
Andrei Arlovski vs. Chase Sherman
Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Jacob Malkoun
Alexander Munoz vs Luis Pena
Bill Algeo vs Ricardo Ramos

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Tracy Cortez vs. Justine Kish
Juan Espino vs. Alexandr Romanov
Lupita Godinez vs. Jessica Penne
Bartosz Fabinski vs Gerald Meerschaert
Zarah Fairn vs Josiane Nunes
Anthony Birchak vs Tony Gravely
Austin Hubbard vs Natan Levy

[209 Life]

Hopefully Kish doesn't drop a turd in the octagon again.

[frankieunits2685]

Solid Fight Night card.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hopefully Kish doesn't drop a turd in the octagon again.

She was up 2-0 as a big underdog in her last fight before getting caught so I'm assuming you mean literally dropping a turd like she did against Herrig.

[Sanity Check]

Excited to see Jessica Penne return.

After her battle with USADA.

[hankcream]

Espino vs Romanov is an interesting match-up. I think both of these guys would destroy Chris Daukaus but they are both ranked below him and Aleksi Olenik. Hoping Romanov wins and they match him up with Daukaus next.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Excited to see Jessica Penne return.

After her battle with USADA.

Really? Why?

[UncleChael]

Hugo, you betting the Paul vs. Askren fight? And who you got? Leaning Paul here

[Hugo de Naranja]

Hugo, you betting the Paul vs. Askren fight? And who you got? Leaning Paul here

Lean Paul by KO I guess

[Hugo de Naranja]

Perhaps some value on a quick finish too.

[frankieunits2685]

Lean Paul by KO I guess

I hate talking about these clowns, but it’s Jake fighting Saturday (Not Logan) and from the small amount that I know about these guys, Jake has actually been training boxing for a couple years and is not terrible. However, his brother Logan had a match against another YouTube guy and it was horrible.

Earlier in the week jake Paul was almost at a pick em, now he is at -200, no way I am laying that.

[frankieunits2685]

My bad Hugo I read your post fast (and without my coffee) I thought you said Logan Paul by KO , but you said “lean” Paul by KO. Lol my apologies.

[magpie878]

While I think Paul wins, I don't have a ton of confidence in a finish. Askren's striking may be bad, but I would think he can take plenty of gloved punches (plus clutching & hugging) to extend this fight.

[JIBBBY]

I think Gas has a chance in this one if he comes in focused and in great shape. I always thought Whittiker was a bit overrated. Gas underrated.

[frankieunits2685]

I think Gas has a chance in this one if he comes in focused and in great shape. I always thought Whittiker was a bit overrated. Gas underrated.

Odds in this fight seem a little high, but I don't trust Gastellum enough to back him.

[magpie878]

Those UFC promo posters usually have the "mean" looks or guys yelling or something.

This one looks like two guys' headshots, auditioning for a boy band.

[Hugo de Naranja]

My bad Hugo I read your post fast (and without my coffee) I thought you said Logan Paul by KO , but you said “lean” Paul by KO. Lol my apologies.

Np, I'm by no means on expert on these guys so when I read your post I double-checked my post assuming you were correct that I had made that mistake haha.

[Sanity Check]

He details family drug issues around when he fought Calvin Kattar.

Crazy stuff.

[JIBBBY]

Lean Paul by KO I guess

It's a boxing match not an MMA match, Ben Asken the wrestler gets dropped.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Not seeing much of interest for this card betting wise. Had some money on Algeo against Ramos but that fight has been cancelled.

[KingHawkins]

Foxbet / Pokerstars offering Raymond Daniels +240 in Bellator, they'll let you get down ~$416 to win $1000 . Line is flipped everywhere else with Daniels as -300 favorite. Free $$ opportunity for my fellow PA bettors or wherever else Foxbet is offering up bad lines. Act fast probably will be gone shortly. Not a line error, but a fast move off of the opener.

[magpie878]

Foxbet / Pokerstars offering Raymond Daniels +240 in Bellator, they'll let you get down ~$416 to win $1000 . Line is flipped everywhere else with Daniels as -300 favorite. Free $$ opportunity for my fellow PA bettors or wherever else Foxbet is offering up bad lines. Act fast probably will be gone shortly. Not a line error, but a fast move off of the opener.

Looking now, that fight is off the board

Also have Budd at -1400, last I saw DK had her at -770 or so... that's nuts

[KingHawkins]

yeah they suspended, then removed that fight. I was able to hit other side just now at betMGM +290 but they limited me to $205 risked. Weak. Also on the Budd fight, I got down $1876 on Budd at -225 about two weeks ago on the Foxbet opener. In process of hedge there, got down $82 at betMGM +725 but they limited me on that one too. Regardless, some nice $ to be made playing these slow moving books against each other.

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups..





185 lbs.: Bartosz Fabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Though he had to deal with a nearly three-year layoff in the middle, Poland’s Bartosz Fabinski (15-4) grappled his way to victory in his first three UFC appearances before running afoul of Michel Prazeres. He returned to the win column in March 2020 with a decision over Darren Stewart, only to tap to an Andre Muniz armbar 5.5 months later.
He gives up one inch of height and 2.5 inches of reach to “GM3.”
After an inconsistent start to his Octagon career, Gerald Meerschaert (31-14) appeared to finally find his footing in a 2-2 stretch that saw him upset Trevin Giles and Deron Winn while suffering questionable split decision losses to Kevin Holland and Eryk Anders. He soon hit a wall, however, suffering consecutive knockout losses to Ian Heinisch and Khamzat Chimaev in the span of three months.
He has submitted 23 professional opponents and knocked out another six.
Meerschaert’s recent losses have me more than a little concerned for his wellbeing. He’s historically been enormously difficult to knock out, as seen in the absolute artillery barrage Thiago Santos had to unleash to put him away, and seeing him get flatlined twice in two combined minutes has me thinking the end might be near.
Luckily for him, Fabinski doesn’t figure to test that chin. “The Butcher” only knows one way to fight, and that’s racking up as many double-legs as humanly possible within the allotted time limit. Meerschaert’s proven that messing around with him on the ground is a fool’s errand even if he’s on his back, and that Muniz loss suggests that Fabinski’s submission defense isn’t up to the task. In short, Meerschaert wraps up an arm sometime in the first five minutes.
Prediction: Meerschaert via first round submission
Related
Up Next! Whittaker Battles Gastelum In Vegas!

135 lbs.: Zarah Fairn vs. Josiane Nunes

A 5-1 run marred only by a questionable loss to Sinead Kavanaugh carried Zarah Fairn (6-4) to UFC, where she joined the promotion’s anemic Featherweight division. “Infinite” failed to find success, suffering first-round stoppage losses to Megan Anderson and Felicia Spencer.
She stands six inches taller than Josiane Nunes (7-1) at 5’8.”
“Josi” enters the cage this Saturday having won six straight since a 2013 loss to future UFC contender Taila Santos. She last saw action in Nov. 2020, stopping unbeaten Quezia Zbonik in her native Brazil.
All but one of her professional victories have come inside the distance.
Some fights are hard to predict because both fighters present high-level skills that their opponents may or may not be able to deal with. Others, like this one, are hard because of mutual mediocrity. Nunes has some pop, but she’s extremely short for the division and lacks any sort of setups for her power shots outside of naked low kicks and the occasional jumping technique. Fairn is rangier and more experienced against capable opposition, but had little to offer her two Octagon foes.
In the end, I have more faith in Fairn’s ability to go three hard rounds than in Nunes,’ which is enough to get me leaning her way. In short, expect a competitive start before Fairn’s pressure steadily swings things in her favor.
Prediction: Fairn via unanimous decision
Related
Pic: Whittaker vs Gastelum Poster Drops!

135 lbs.: Tony Gravely vs. Anthony Birchak

After claiming titles in both King of the Cage and CES, Tony Gravely (20-6) punched his ticket to UFC with a one-sided stoppage of Ray Rodriguez on “Contender Series.” Though he fell short in a “Fight of the Night” debut against Brett Johns, he entered UFC’s win column 10 months later with a split decision over Geraldo de Freitas.
His 11 professional stoppage wins include eight by form of knockout.
Anthony Birchak (15-7) left UFC in 2016 on the heels of a split decision over Dileno Lopez, and though he lost his next three under the Rizin banner, he got back on track with a three-fight win streak. His efforts set up a late-notice UFC return against Gustavo Lopez, who choked out “El Toro” in the first round.
He steps in for Nate Maness on one month’s notice.
The big question here is whether Gravely’s cardio struggles against de Freitas were a one-off stumble or systematic of a larger problem. His wrestling is more than sufficient to ruthlessly exploit Birchak’s historically shaky takedown defense; if the gas tank’s there, he can grind Birchak into oblivion without issue. If it’s not, things could go south very quickly, as Birchak’s spotty record belies the sort of power and aggression that can violently sink an exhausted fighter.
Even with these reservations, Gravely’s game hypothetically counters Birchak’s so thoroughly that I can’t pick against him. He racks up his usual heap of takedowns to claim a wide decision.
Prediction: Gravely via unanimous decision
Related
Watch UFC Live Stream On ESPN+

155 lbs.: Austin Hubbard vs. Dakota Bush

In just his second fight under the LFA banner, Austin Hubbard (12-5)defied massive odds to knockout unbeaten Killys Mota and claim the promotion’s Lightweight title. The victory also earned him a spot in the Octagon, where he’s gone 2-3 over the span of two years.
“Thud” owns four professional wins by knockout and another three by submission.
Dakota Bush (8-2) started his professional career 4-0 before a 2-2 stretch saw him drop decisions to Bryce Logan and Jaleel Willis. He’s since righted the ship with a pair of first-round finishes, including a 57-second knockout of Austin Clem in Jan. 2021.
He steps in for the injured Natan Levy on less than a week’s notice.
The change in opponent doesn’t figure to trip up Hubbard too much, as both Bush and Levy are primarily wrestlers, but there is one key difference: Bush is ostensibly lesser overall. He’s definitely a weaker striker than Levy, whose kick onslaught presented far more of a threat than Bush’s basic rushes, and his struggles with Willis suggest that he’ll have serious issues imposing his wrestling.
While Hubbard’s had his fair share of issues trying to shut down dedicated takedown artists like Mark Madsen and Joe Solecki, he should be able to keep it standing here and really let his solid combination striking go. Even if Bush does find early success, the short notice and Hubbard’s top-notch gas tank mean that things will only get worse for him as the fight progresses. In the end, Hubbard wears him down for a late stoppage.
Prediction: Hubbard via third-round technical knockout



125 lbs.: Tracy Cortez vs. Justine Kish

Tracy Cortez (8-1) went from losing her professional debut fighting her way to “Contender Series,” where she claimed a UFC contract with a decision over Mariya Agapova. She’s been similarly successful in the Octagon itself, defeating Vanessa Melo and Stephanie Egger in successive appearances.
She’ll have a two-inch reach advantage over Justine Kish (7-3).
Kish put her injury-shortened Ultimate Fighter run behind her to win her first two Octagon bouts, including a decision over Nina Nunes in her debut. She has since dropped three of four, most recently tapping to a Sabina Mazo rear-naked choke in Sept. 2020.
Her two professional finishes, which came in her first two bouts, came by submission.
The last time Kish had to fight off of her back, Felice Herrig dominated her so thoroughly that Kish actually pooped herself trying to brute-force her way out of a choke. While she’s almost certainly improved in the four years since, it’s a bad sign against a takedown artist as prolific as Cortez. Worse, Kish seemingly lacks the power to make Cortez hesitate before shooting in, meaning she can keep threatening her hips all night.
The one “X-Factor” here is the weight cut — Cortez shouldn’t have any issues going back to 125 pounds, as she fought there her entire pre-UFC career, but Kish definitely puts on enough pressure to turn the tides late if something goes wrong. Still, expect Cortez’s wrestling to carry the day.
Prediction: Cortez via unanimous decision
Related
Pic: Whittaker vs Gastelum Poster Drops!

265 lbs.: Alexander Romanov vs. Juan Espino

After multiple false starts, Moldova’s Alexander Romanov (13-0) finally got the chance to make his UFC debut in Sept. 2020, dominating Roque Martinez en route to a second-round submission win. Next came Marcos Rogerio de Lima, whom Romanov dispatched with an old-school forearm choke to earn “Performance of the Night.”
He’s ended all 13 of his professional bouts inside the distance, nine of them by submission.
Spain’s Juan Espino (10-1) ran the table on TUF 28, defeating Ben Sosoli and Maurice Greene before tapping Juan Frazier with a bonus-winning armbar at the Finale. A nearly two-year absence followed, after which “El Guapo” made up for lost time by submitting Jeff Hughes on “Fight Island.”
He’ll have one inch of height and five inches of reach on “King Kong.”
Even though he had more trouble with Rogerio de Lima than I expected, I have to go with Romanov here. That’s because he’s younger, more effective on the feet, and actually seems to be the faster of the two despite being a former sumo wrestler. Plus, he’s got a deceptively deep gas tank, so even if Espino does manage to get the better of him early, “King Kong” will likely be the fresher fighter down the stretch.
This is, of course, all moot if Romanov’s heretofore untested takedown defense winds up failing him. Inactive and old though he may be, Espino’s absolutely skilled enough to end the night early if he ends up on top.
Prediction: Romanov via second round technical knockout
Related
Up Next! Whittaker Battles Gastelum In Vegas!

115 lbs.: Jessica Penne vs. Lupita Godinez

Jessica Penne (12-5) — the former Invicta Atomweight champ — went 2-1 on TUF 20 before defeating season Cinderella Randa Markos at the Finale. She hasn’t tasted victory since, falling to Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Jessica Andrade and Danielle Taylor sequentially.
This will be her first fight in almost exactly four years due to issues with United States Anti-Doping Agency (USADA).
The Mexico-born, Canada-based Lupita Godinez (5-0) went 4-4-1 as an amateur before her professional debut in 2018. After four wins on the regional circuit, she squared off with “Contender Series” veteran Vanessa Demopoulos, building an insurmountable lead to claim the LFA Strawweight title in Oct. 2020.
She replaces Hannah Goldy on little more than two weeks’ notice.
While I do believe Penne is significantly better than her UFC record would suggest, as two of her losses came to champion-caliber opponents and the third was a robbery, Godinez is all wrong for her. Penne has historically wilted under the sort of furious boxing onslaught that “Loopy” brings to the table, and Godinez’s wrestling is sufficiently stout to take Penne’s quality top game out of the equation.
We’ve seen fighters make massive strides after years on the shelf before, but Penne turned 38 this year and is up against a much younger, much more powerful prospect. In the end, Godinez overwhelms her with combinations within the first five minutes.
Prediction: Godinez via first-round technical knockout

[Kermit]

Jessica Penne is still fighting? I thought she retired after her last loss a few years ago. She's gotta be about 40 now.

[frankieunits2685]

Jessica Penne is still fighting? I thought she retired after her last loss a few years ago. She's gotta be about 40 now.

yep, 38.

[Sanity Check]

[PaperTrail07]

Gastelum +210
Romanov -145
Sherman *Sigh lol...Even $--betting on his heart and agression here....
Fabinski -115

GL

[Hugo de Naranja]

Gastelum +210
Romanov -145
Sherman *Sigh lol...Even $--betting on his heart and agression here....
Fabinski -115

GL

GL Papes

[JIBBBY]

Gastelum +210
Romanov -145
Sherman *Sigh lol...Even $--betting on his heart and agression here....
Fabinski -115

GL

With ya on Sherman and Romanov..

[Kermit]

Gastelum +210
Romanov -145
Sherman *Sigh lol...Even $--betting on his heart and agression here....
Fabinski -115

GL

On both. Got Romanov ITD +120

[JIBBBY]

^^Trying Gas myself also but not confident. The odds swayed me for a try. Gas is always game and tough as nails in his fights.

[Kermit]

^^Trying Gas myself also but not confident. The odds swayed me for a try. Gas is always game and tough as nails in his fights.

Agree.

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN 22: Whittaker vs. Gastelum Picks:
Tony Gravely Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Austin Hubbard Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Bartosz Fabinski Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Lupita Godinez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Juan Espino Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Tracy Cortez Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Alex Munoz Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Abdul Razak Alhassan Round 1 KO (Punch)
Andrei Arlovski Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Jeremy Stephens Round 2 TKO (Punches)
Robert Whittaker Unanimous Decision (49-46, 48-47 x2)

[frankieunits2685]

UFC ESPN 22:
Gravely/Godinez Parlay -130 (2u)