UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori (December 05, 2020)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ESPN2 10:00pm ET
Jack Hermansson vs. Marvin Vettori
Jamahal Hill vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Taila Santos vs. Montana De La Rosa
John Allan vs. Roman Dolidze
Movsar Evloev vs. Nate Landwehr

ESPN+ 7:00 pm ET
Jake Collier vs. Gian Villante
Jordan Leavitt vs. Matt Wiman
Cody Durden vs. Jimmy Flick
Damon Jackson vs. Ilia Topuria
Gabriel Benitez vs. Justin Jaynes
Jose Quinonez vs. Louis Smolka

[frankieunits2685]

Thanks Locky!

[agendaman]

is frankie edgar retired

[hankcream]

Another weak card, but I can't wait for Villante vs Collier, hopefully it's at heavyweight then it could be a winner & loser both leave town match.

[praisebuddha]

[QUOTE=hankcream;29929131]Another weak card, but I can't wait for Villante vs Collier, hopefully it's at heavyweight then it could be a winner & loser both leave town match.[/QUOTE

It's only weak if you don't have money on it hank.. come on buddy! ha

[JIBBBY]

Not the greatest card but I'll bet on it.

[JIBBBY]

This could be a good card for betting the DOGS though. I'm looking this card over and liking the DOGS.

[Hugo de Naranja]

is frankie edgar retired

I don't think so.

[unlearn]

Had a $200 freeplay at BOL from refer a friend and put it all on Hermansson +123

[JIBBBY]

Had a $200 freeplay at BOL from refer a friend and put it all on Hermansson +123

That's one of the dogs that jumped out to me on this card. GL...

[unlearn]

That's one of the dogs that jumped out to me on this card. GL...

I will likely play him ITD as well

[unlearn]

Also liking OSP as a dog

[JIBBBY]

Also liking OSP as a dog

Yup he's got the experience edge.. OSP never an easy OUT these days.

[JIBBBY]

Jake Collier another dog that can win I think.. Gian Villante very beatable these days.

[richie360]

Was surprised to see Hermansson open up as underdog.

[hankcream]

Quinonez, Durden, OSP, and Hermansson all appealing dogs IMO. I can't understand the line movement towards Vettori, I'd like to take Hermansson by sub @ +365 if I can get it.

[WolfTicketDealer]

Quinonez, Durden, OSP, and Hermansson all appealing dogs IMO. I can't understand the line movement towards Vettori, I'd like to take Hermansson by sub @ +365 if I can get it.

Antonio Carlos Junior couldn't submit Vettori, I doubt Hermansson will be able to.

[PaperTrail07]

ACJ is slow, but I still agree a sub is unlikely here....I like Landwehr to battle at that price

Antonio Carlos Junior couldn't submit Vettori, I doubt Hermansson will be able to.

[hankcream]

Waiting for the weigh-in to see what John Allen Arte looks like after the PED suspension. Dolidze seems to be a beast even after his PED layoff, planning to put 10 units on Dolidze if it it's still under -200.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Waiting for the weigh-in to see what John Allen Arte looks like after the PED suspension. Dolidze seems to be a beast even after his PED layoff, planning to put 10 units on Dolidze if it it's still under -200.

Really? Hmm

[JIBBBY]

MMAMANIA write ups. Prelims.





145 lbs.: Ilia Topuria vs. Damon Jackson

A former Bantamweight who moved up to 145 pounds after missing weight for what would have been a Cage Warriors title-winning submission of Brian Bouland, Ilia Topuria (9-0) started his run in the weight class with stoppage wins under the Brave CF banner. October saw him step up on short notice to fight the surging Youssef Zalal, whom Topuria overpowered over three entertaining rounds.
Like Damon Jackson (18-3-1), all but one of his wins have come inside the distance, including seven submissions.
After washing out of UFC with an 0-1-1 (1 NC) record, “The Leech” put together wins in eight of his next 10, earning an LFA title along the way. This past September saw him step up on short notice to choke out the heavily favored Mirsad Bektic and take home a $50,000 “Performance of the Night” bonus for his efforts.
He’ll enjoy four inches of height and reach on his foe.
This figures to be a solid referendum on Topuria’s maturity. His heavy hands and top-notch wrestling look sufficient to take Jackson’s venomous submissions out of the equation and control things on the feet. If he decides to test his jiu-jitsu against the more seasoned “Leech;” however, he could very easily find himself in the same position Bektic did.
To his credit, Topuria fought a smart, efficient fight against Zalal despite limited preparation time. Jackson’s finishing skills mean Topuria will have a smaller margin of error this time, but between his newfound UFC experience and the benefits of a full camp, I expect similar success here. In the end, Topuria keeps it standing and turns the lights out with an overhand right somewhere in the first half of the fight.
Prediction: Topuria via second-round technical knockout
Related
Vettori Opens As Betting Favorite Over Hermansson

145 lbs.: Gabriel Benitez vs. Justin Jaynes

Though his The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): “Latin America” run proved unsuccessful, Gabriel Benitez (21-8) established himself as one to watch with wins in five of his first seven Octagon appearances, including an upset of Jason Knight. He enters the cage this weekend on a two-fight skid, however, falling to Sodiq Yusuff and Omar Morales in competitive efforts.
He’s ended 18 professional bouts inside the distance, 11 of them via submission.
Justin Jaynes (16-5) didn’t let short notice or a one-year layoff stop him from demolishing Frank Camacho in his Octagon debut and taking home a $50,000 bonus in the process. He started his sophomore effort strong with an early knockdown of Gavin Tucker, but ultimately succumbed to the Canadian’s submission skills in the third.
“Guitar Hero” gives up an inch of height and three inches of reach to “Moggly.”
While dropping the iron-tough Tucker is a praiseworthy accomplishment, Jaynes’ last fight raised an uncomfortable number of red flags. His lack of cardio and striking craft came back to bite him in a big way, and he needs both of those to get past a kickboxer of Benitez’s caliber. Considering it’s been less than four months, I don’t see him making the necessary adjustments.
Jaynes’ wrestling figures to be the avenue to victory, but Benitez is a difficult man to hold down, and he’s got the gas tank to stay alive in the scrambles all night. In sum, expect the Mexican’s power kicks to steadily take over until he puts a fading Jaynes away somewhere around the midpoint.
Prediction: Benitez via second-round technical knockout
Related
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135 lbs.: Jose Quinonez vs. Louis Smolka

These two were slated to fight a few weeks ago before Louis Smolka (16-7) screwed up his weight cut so badly he had to be removed. My thoughts haven’t changed, so I figured I’d just reuse what I had ...
While he failed to defeat Alejandro Perez in TUF: “Latin America” finals, Jose Quinonez (8-4) put together a four-fight win streak to secure himself a foothold in UFC’s crowded Bantamweight division. “El Teco” has since lost two of three, defeating Carlos Huachin but falling to top prospects Nathaniel Wood and Sean O’Malley.
He will have a slight reach advantage over Smolka despite standing an inch shorter.
A three-fight stoppage streak brought “Da Last Samurai” back to the Octagon after a four-fight skid prompted his exit, and he started his second run strong with an armbar finish of Sumudaerji. He has enjoyed more mixed success in his last three, sandwiching a knockout of Ryan MacDonald between submission losses to Matt Schnell and Casey Kenney.
His 14 professional stoppages are split evenly between knockouts and submissions.
This is, in a strange way, sort of uncharted territory for Quinonez. Since that Perez loss in 2015, he’s beaten five sub-UFC caliber opponents and been dominated by two fringe contenders. We’ve yet to really see him against a middle-of-the-pack opponent like Smolka, so it remains unclear where exactly “El Teco” stands in the division.
My guess? Somewhere above Smolka.
Along with being a natural Bantamweight fighting a man whose best work came at 125 pounds, Quinonez looks to have the edge in wrestling and boxing. While Smolka only really needs one window of top control to get the submission finish, he’s unlikely to get it without getting battered, and his durability doesn’t look as impressive as it used to be. So long as he doesn’t decide to try his luck against Smolka’s guard game, Quinonez out-strikes him to an entertaining decision win.
Prediction: Quinonez via unanimous decision



265 lbs.: Gian Villante vs. Jake Collier

After putting together a 7-8 run as a UFC Light Heavyweight, Gian Villante (17-2) made the jump to 205 pounds, ultimately debuting against Maurice Greene in June. Though he nearly put “The Crochet Boss” away in the third round, he ultimately tapped to a Hail Mary choke with less than 90 seconds to go.
He owns 10 professional wins by knockout and another two by submission.
Jake Collier (11-5) has alternated losses and wins since his 2014 debut, scoring three upsets in the process. He returned from a nearly three-year absence this past July against Tom Aspinall, who put the newly-minted Heavyweight down with a right hand in 45 seconds.
“The Prototype” sports a 2.5” reach advantage over Villante despite both men standing 6’4.”
Just to be clear: these guys didn’t move up to Heavyweight because they’d properly outgrown their usual weight classes. They moved up to Heavyweight because they’re undisciplined. Villante’s case is especially egregious, as he seemingly added weight to only his waistline.
Neither of them have promising futures ahead, even in a division as top-heavy as 265 pounds. At the end of the day, though, I’ll take the overweight, mediocre Light Heavyweight over the overweight, mediocre Middleweight. So long as Villante doesn’t somehow compromise his gas tank even further, he blows away Collier in the first round.
Prediction: Villante via first-round technical knockout
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155 lbs.: Jordan Leavitt vs. Matt Wiman

A submission victory under the LFA banner brought Jordan Leavitt (7-0) to “Contender Series” less than one month later, when he faced fellow ground specialist Luke Flores. Despite entering on short notice, Leavitt’s grappling proved more potent, as he tapped Flores with an arm triangle late in the first.
Five of his seven professional wins have come by submission.
Matt Wiman’s (16-9) decision over Isaac Vallie-Flagg in 2014 — his sixth win in eight fights — turned out to be his last Octagon appearance for 4.5 years. His return to action hasn’t gone terribly smoothly, resulting in 2019 losses to Luis Pena and Joe Solecki.
He is the shorter man by one inch and gives up four inches of reach.
I’m not sure who among the UFC brass Wiman pissed off, but they’re a petty bastard. After getting shredded on the mat by grappling specialists twice in a row, he gets a third one in Leavitt. If this had taken place seven or so years ago, I’d favor Wiman to control the wrestling and punish Leavitt’s vestigial stand up. Now, after watching look completely helpless against a limited takedown artist in Pena, it looks like he’s headed for another wipeout loss.
If there’s one thing Wiman’s retained, it’s his submission defense, so he’ll likely survive the full 15 minutes. Unfortunately, he’s no longer sharp enough to parlay that resilience into effective offense. In the end, regular takedowns and submission attempts should carry Leavitt to a comfortable win.
Prediction: Leavitt via unanimous decision
Related
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125 lbs.: Jimmy Flick vs. Cody Durden

Jimmy Flick (15-5) — two fights removed from a loss to future UFC competitor Ray Rodriguez — needed just 38 seconds to choke out Greg Fischer and claim the LFA Flyweight title. His grappling prowess showed itself again on “Contender Series,” where he choked out unbeaten Nate Smith in a contract-winning effort.
Thirteen of his professional wins, including all of them since 2011, have come by submission.
Seven finishes in seven consecutive wins carried Cody Durden (11-2-1) to a late-notice Octagon debut against Chris Gutierrez this past August. He spent nearly the entire first round attached to the favorite’s back, but found himself unable to secure takedowns in the second and third rounds, resulting in a draw.
Though the taller man by one inch, he gives up 3.5 inches of reach.
There’s two ways this fight can go: either we get an incredible ground battle between a phenomenal submission ace and a pedigreed wrestler, or we get an awful stand up slog. Luckily for us, I’m thinking the latter because both men are far more comfortable initiating the wrestling than trying to sprawl-and-brawl.
Not that it’s necessarily the best idea for Durden. He’s the better takedown artist, sure, but Flick’s front chokes, sweeps and scrambling skills more than offset that difference. Whether by putting Durden on his back or punishing him for attempting to do the same in return, he gets his arms around Durden’s neck before long.
Prediction: Flick via first-round submission

[JIBBBY]

Main card -

Women’s Flyweight: Montana de la Rosa vs. Taila Santos

Best Win for de la Rosa? Mara Romero Borella For Santos? Molly McCann
Current Streak: De la Rosa has lost her most recent fight, while Santos won her last bout
X-Factor: high level experience vs. overall experience
How these two match up: I predict a pretty fun grappling match.
De la Rosa has fought several of the top talents at both Flyweight and 115 pounds, though she lost to most of the high-profile foes. All the same, “Monty” is a talented wrestler with tight top control and an active submission game.
Eight of her victories come via tapout.
Conversely, Santos spent a lot of time crushing cans on the regional scene in Brazil, but she proved herself both on “Contender Series” and in two UFC fights. Santos has a solid Muay Thai game, but she’s done a lot of her work in the Octagon on the mat, scoring five takedowns in her recent upset opposite McCann.
Despite the MMA math advantage (de la Rosa out-wrestled Borella, who managed to split Santos), this seems like a rough match up for the Texan. Santos seems the more physical fighter, which will go a long way in nullifying de la Rosa’s wrestling experience. Plus, the Brazilian is the better, more powerful striker, which means de la Rosa has to navigate those dangerous waters before finding the shot.
Most likely, the striking and strength advantage for Santos allow her to deny or reverse takedowns, at which point de la Rosa cannot implement her excellent top game.
Prediction: Santos via decision
Related
Vettori Opens As Betting Favorite Over Hermansson

---

Light Heavyweight: Roman Dolidze vs. John Allan

Best Win for Dolidze? Khadis Ibragimov For Allan? Alexandre Silva
Current Streak: Dolidze is undefeated (7-0) and recently won his UFC debut, while Allan comes off a “No Contest” due to a short-notice upset win ... followed by a drug test failure
X-Factor: Allan’s been on the sidelines since July 2019
How these two match up: Two big lads will step into the cage looking to throw hands and prove themselves.
Dolidze’s debut was pretty simple but impressive. Against Ibragimov, he circled, switched stances, and threw hard kicks to the head and body. Ibragimov grew frustrated, prompting Dolidze to go high for the first time and walk his opponent into the knockout.
All six of his victories come via stoppage.
A professional since 2012, Allan really impressed in his own debut, pressing Rodriguez to the fence with combinations, mixing in body shots and elbows to great effect. He wore his opponent down well and did so on short-notice, but it will remain to be seen what the Chute Boxe product looks like given a full camp and falling his suspension.
Call it a hunch, but I like Allan here. Though Dolidze is likely the deadlier finisher, he seems to prefer a distance striking battle. Allan, meanwhile, is happy to pressure forward and force an ugly brawl, at which point the distance changes.
Fighting chest-to-chest and trading strikes from the dirty boxing range is exhausting, and it makes it difficult to release power kicks. If Allan keeps the pressure on, he stands a real good chance at fatiguing his foe and prevent any huge strikes from landing.
It helps that the Brazilian has yet to be stopped by strikes.
Prediction: Allan via decision
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---

Featherweight: Movsar Evloev vs. Nate Landwehr

Best Win for Evloev? Mike Grundy For Landwehr? Darren Elkins
Current Streak: Evloev is undefeated at 13-0 (three wins in UFC), while Landwehr scored his first UFC victory last time out
X-Factor: Landwehr’s aggression
How these two match up: This is a technician vs. wildcard battle between former M-1 champions and could prove to be one of the night’s best.
Evloev is really good. The 26-year-old Russian Featherweight seems destined for the Top 10, because he’s a top-tier athlete whose game is so well put together already. He moves and strikes well for as long as needed, but once Evloev changes level and gains entry on the hips — typically with excellent timing — his opponents have a miserable time getting loose.
Landwehr made his name as the M-1 Challenge Featherweight champ, traveling across the globe to fight a bunch of badass Russian talents ... and winning. He’s a bruiser, a man who walks forward and puts together punches in bunches until his foe falls down.
This is a closer fight than the betting odds imply. Evloev is a former Bantamweight, and Landwehr has spent quite some time shucking off the takedowns of talented Featherweight wrestlers. If Evloev’s wrestling is fully stuffed, he may be in for real trouble.
However, that doesn’t appear likely. Landwehr is too straightforward with his offense, and Evloev is too mobile from the outside. Even if Evloev cannot keep him down easily, at least the occasional takedown will be there, and at that point, his striking to wrestling transitions — and vice-versa — are likely to keep him a step ahead.
Landwehr swings to the final bell, but he only has three rounds to make something crazy happen.
Prediction: Evloev via decision

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Is there a more likeable guy in MMA than Hermansson? He is always smiling and in a good mood, hope he wins and gets his title shot soon.

[unlearn]

Is there a more likeable guy in MMA than Hermansson? He is always smiling and in a good mood, hope he wins and gets his title shot soon.

Only guy that comes to mind is Stipe but I'm a Cleveland homer

[hankcream]

Really? Hmm

Anything on the card you want to put some bet points on again Hugo? So far I've got Durden, Topuria, Dolidze and leaning Hill, Hermansson, and maybe Justin Jaynes.

[vegasbb]

I just saw OSP missed weight

[Hugo de Naranja]

Anything on the card you want to put some bet points on again Hugo? So far I've got Durden, Topuria, Dolidze and leaning Hill, Hermansson, and maybe Justin Jaynes.

I'd take Vettori if you want Hermansson.

I'm picking Dolidze too but am not too high on him overall. Not a fight I plan to be going big on myself.

[PaperTrail07]

208

I just saw OSP missed weight

[PaperTrail07]

Benitez -200 but he should cruise....back to the wall (I know I know ) but overall this matchup just fits his style....on the feet high action-he wont get KO's IMO.....should =W....

[PaperTrail07]

He is also not a glove tapping -were friends type of fighter---all business INSIDE the cage....joker outside....-There is a time and place for it (Veteran Respect)...but some fighters-its all too frequent....

Is there a more likeable guy in MMA than Hermansson? He is always smiling and in a good mood, hope he wins and gets his title shot soon.

[PaperTrail07]

Feeling this +500 parlay---trusted you guys on Dolidze--

.......I like backing guys that have a lot to prove though

Marvin Vettori
-140

Gabriel Benitez
-225

Roman Dolidze
-210

Jimmy Flick
-170


I'm picking Dolidze too but am not too high on him overall. Not a fight I plan to be going big on myself.[/QUOTE]

[WolfTicketDealer]

I'm willing to put some BP's on John Allan if anyone wants Dolidze.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Feeling this +500 parlay---trusted you guys on Dolidze--

.......I like backing guys that have a lot to prove though

Marvin Vettori
-140

Gabriel Benitez
-225

Roman Dolidze
-210

Jimmy Flick
-170


I'm picking Dolidze too but am not too high on him overall. Not a fight I plan to be going big on myself.

[/QUOTE]
Flick is pretty one dimensional.

[hankcream]

The juice got a little steep on Dolidze so I was going to put 5 units on Dolidze inside the distance @-125 but BOL limited me to $250 on the prop because it was circled

[hankcream]