Strikeforce 8/15- UFC 102 8/29

[brooks85]

Strikeforce

diaz/mousasi 1089 to win 1000
diaz has been cancelled so its now

Mousasi 1089 to win 418.84


UFC 102

Rosholt 300 to win 390

Silva 300 to win 420

[brooks85]

parlaying my straight up bets


Pit -1.5 1H/NE +1 1H/Bal -3/Mousasi/GG/rosholt/silva/nate 7.81 to win 1000



parlay screwed by blind refs for pit 1h.


this one is better anyways


Ishida/Marquardt/Rosholt/Silva
(Week1 nfl)SD -6.5/SD O 44/NE O 46.5/NO -11.5/Cin -3/Navy+22

5 to win 5388.01

[illmatick]

gl, had a nice number on mousasi at around -160, still like him to win but the new line that reopened was just too high for me, any opinion on the Gilbert Melendez fight, havnt watched the first fight between his opp yet but see he lost a Ud against him

[brooks85]

seems there would be good value in ishida. Gilbert definitely controlling the standup game but ishida never takes any serious damage. Ishida tho shot multiple times and landed the takedowns. Basically just holding on gilbert and controlling him most of the fight. I think I will make a play on ishida. But, it just seems odd the books would open melendez -240 and higher most places.

[brooks85]

ishida 200 to win 350

I think ishida last fight against hirota was an early stoppage.

Ishida took some of gilberts toughest shots in their first bout and ishida continued to push forward to grapple and secure takedowns.

[brooks85]

marquardt 435 to win 300

GG/Vera 300 to win 312.5

[illmatick]

just watched the Gilbert/Ishida fight and the line is indeed strange, I read Gilbert has a new strength and conditioning coach but I see no other reason to think the fight won't go the same way, lot of sharp mma cappers I know love Maia in the fight you just locked up, still undecided myself

[brooks85]

I just figure, tho thales didnt come with the best gameplan, he couldnt submit nate and thales only won by points. Thales also had a serious reach advantage(78-80inch different measurements, 80 most recent) to marquardt(74). I just think nate is going to domiNATE the stand up game and I think his bjj defense is sound enough(which only way maia will win of course). Maia hasnt faced anyone on nates level. Jason macdonald is his most impressive win imo and lasted half way into the 3rd. I think the fight will go a lot like fitch/thiago. Maia will no doubt throw some sub attempts out but im counting on nate to avoid them.

I would be a lot more comfortable if nate had the win over almeida. However, watching Almeidas fights and Maias fights, other than grappling/bjj, Almeida has more tools. Maia has never shown me anything that reminds me of almeidas performance. Maia also has questionable cardio, his gas tank noticeable goes down going into the 2nd round against herman/macdonald. Maia had jmac in a full triangle/RNC and couldnt finish either in the first. He had jmac on his back the majority 2nd and couldnt lock in any sub attempt. Jason gasd in the third and maia was able to lock in a rnc. Quarry and Sonnen were a definite step down in competition compared to macdonald. Either nate is the going to be the guy who final test maias chin or he will grind out a decision(possible ref stoppage for some GnP).






IF anyone got 10mins to kill and wants to see a classic chess match

[brooks85]

the fix is in

carano 200 to win 320

[illmatick]

lol, wouldn't suprise me, good points on the nate fight, going to watch a few more fights from both fighters before i make any final decisions

[brooks85]

speaking of which, she is about to be on jim Rome is flaming burning

[brooks85]

kyle 100 to win 375
taylor 100 to win 150

[brooks85]

The more fights I watch the more I am liking nate. Maia has never faced anyone with nates GnP. Maias takedowns and striking are sloppy. Nates also a pancrase world champx7. If maia somehow ends up on his back nate is done. But, I dont see it happening. Nates is a huge mw and a lot stronger than maia. Nate has the reach advantage(something he didnt have against gouveia/thales/silva and he won 2 of those fights) and if/when it goes to the ground maia is going to expierence something he has never tasted before - GnP.

[brooks85]

NFL 8/15- DET1Q over 7.5/SEA1Q over 7.5/Carano/Mousasi/Ishida

17.01 to win 1000

[Eccocide]

Like most of what you got here. I'm leaning Nate right now too. I just think hes too big for Maia, and hes got great wrestling to back it up. It's going to be tough for Maia to get this one to the ground.

Looks like we are going up or down together with Carano and Ishida!!

[brooks85]

crappy night, I wish diaz would have fought


I look forward to 102, I think rosholt might be my favorite bet on the card.

[brooks85]

NOG 300 to win 480


looks like the line is going down so i gotta take a bite now

[brooks85]

Nog going to show why he was ranked a top heavyweight before that debacle against mir. Randy fighting in his home state too.

[The HOFF]

I'm on the other side Brooks. I saw the line dropping and was hoping to get Randy at a better price. To me it looks like Nog is getting too much credit for the fighter he used to be, just like Liddell did against Shogun. It wasn't just the Mir fight he looked bad in. He looked bad against Herring too. I'm still waiting, but if I make a play it will be Randy. I have already played Marquardt though.

[brooks85]

I think a lot of the fight lines are based on the fighters previous fight and that is where the money can be made. Especially in this case and nogs last performance because off the issues was complete mishap. When he fought HH and tim he fought two guys with a big reach advantage over him and both a great at using their striking and size. Nog is going to have a nice reach over randy and his boxing will shine against the shorter randy. Randy still also has a weak chin. I think its crazy to think nog is past his prime or getting too much respect, he is 33. Nog also can take a lot of punishment and can finish with bjj any moment.

Looking at randy recent record, nothing wrong losing to brock. When he fought GG it was a great fight but the headbutt randy delievered on the early takedown definitely affected the outcome. And he took tim to a decision and aside from the first opening seconds never really did any damage. When he fights a striker, good chance he loses. Nog looks great training and I think he boxing is going to win this fight.

[brooks85]

what did you get nate at, i got him at -145. I though I should have waited but its -160 now.

[Eccocide]

I will be placing my bet on Nog soon as well. I disagree with the fact that he looked bad against Herring. He pretty much picked him apart standing for the whole fight other than when he got caught with that high kick. Even after that, he kicked it into high gear and beat Herring to every punch. I totally disregard the Mir fight as the guy was in the hospital for 3 weeks prior to the fight and didnt get to train. I just dont see any value in Randy at this price. Plus Randy just doesn't seem focused on this fight from what I've read. He's already talking about fighting Machida, and Anderson and blah blah blah. Guy needs to realize hes facing a legend in 2 weeks!!

[brooks85]

Simpson 200 to win 240

[brooks85]

NYG U35/NO ML/PIT ML/WNBA SAC -2.5/simpson/rosholt/silva/marquardt 5 to win 2070

first 4 above 44.77 to win 1000

[illmatick]

glad to see we both like Simpson, I locked him up early at +135, guy is crazy fast with great power, much better wrestler as well, herman has the advantage on the ground but I could see this turning into a standup battle for 3 rounds

[brooks85]

ya i love my wrestlers and this guy is a beast. He says he wants to showcase his wrestling more which is great if his bjj defense is up to par because hermans is no slouch in that field. I think simpson is going to rock him early, wrap him up and possibly give herman his first tko loss(ref stoppage).

side note. hermans camp, team quest, just added a new member, Jon Jones.. thats just nasty

[brooks85]

**** im salty right now

[brooks85]

been waiting for the lines to move to hedge this one because I actually like chris to win this fight now.

vera/chris 150 to win 683.82

[Saunders FTW]

Big dissapointment not seeing diaz on the card, damn mary jane

[brooks85]

ahah all my picks are opposite, good sign

http://www.sherdog.com/news/articles/1/UFC-102-Preview-The-Main-Card-19314

[brooks85]

ridiculous night, i felt like shit for how much money i had on this event. My only loss was 300 i had on aurelio/dufee parlay and 150 on vera/tuch parlay. Also had 4 parlays hit for abour 3000 and if navy covers +22.5 against my buckeyes next saturday i get another 2000. I have no idea why i put navy in there.

[brooks85]

ok so did the numbers

Lost 270 on aurelio/duffee parlay
Lost 150 on vera/chris parlay
Lost 100 on randy/jake/duffee
Lost 258 on various big parlays, 4 teamers or more - i know i have a problem


Won 640 on jake rosholt SU
Won 361.11 on jake/(wnba) Sea+8 jm c bet
Won 665.79 on jake/chi cubs jm bet

Won 500 on Duffee/Russo

won 312 on vera/GG<-cheata

Won 300 on Nate SU

Won 670 on thiago SU

Won 240 on Aaron SU

Won 400 on NOG SU

bigtime parlays that hit

12.78 to win 1000 nog/nate/thiago/jake/GG

16.85 to win 1000 nate/thiago/aaron/jake/vera

100 to win 500 nate/vera/russow/duffee

42 to win 1500 nog/nate/thiago/jake/vera

29 to win 2000 nog/jake/nate/thiago/vera/navy+22.5(pending 9/5)

so i Won 8088.9 - Lost 778 - Profited 7310.9 -- with 2more gs coming

i was nervous, I had a huge chunk of my bankroll on the line. Im gonna get some pics of the parlays up tomorrow.

[brooks85]

so instead of posting a bunch of pics i jjust made it into a video about a minute long. Quality a little better when viewed at youtube.

[Eccocide]

Wow, amazing night dude. Can't believe you hit all those big parlays - WELL DONE!.

Hahaha Navy +22.5 - how random was that to add in?? Maybe hedge and put a G on OSU -22.5 - that way ur up a grand either way

[brooks85]

oo, i like your thinking, i might just do that, then I can actually sit down and enjoy the game.