UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik (August 08, 2020)

[WolfTicketDealer]

Took Tucker small. Like to fade guys coming off big upset wins who are lined closely in their next fight. That Jaynes price gives you some flexibility to reduce stake for bigger net odds or freeroll.

Yeah that's fair. I think Tucker has more skill, though Jaynes could pose problems with pressure if Tucker fades later in the fight.

Wasn't planning on buying out but the line came in more than I expected. We'll see.

[LBfightlife]

Here are my bets boys via Bovada. I normally don't make time to post but trying to get better at it. Wanted to add a parlay with Dariush too but, I mistakenly bet on the wrong fighter (Black Beast via Mary Jane ) and I'm a bit over exposed coming off a loss a few cards back so I took a few cards off and wanted to play small on this card for fun. Admittedly, I'm betting as a fan on Tim Means, but I am thinking the Dirty Bird has some more W's in the tank and I have a feeling he is going to come through with a violent finish and show hes in the conversation at the top 10.


1u - Aleskei Oleink ITD +175.2

.2u - Oleink rd 2 +625
.2u - Oleink rd3 +1400
.2u - Oleink rd4 +2000
.1u - Oleink rd5 +3000

Black Beast Rnd 2-4 (error bet/Hedge) Same Odds as above
---

.5u - Juila Stoliarenko - Straight +180
.5u - Juila Stoliarenko Via Submission +325

--

.5u Tim Means straight +120
.2u Tim Means Rd 2 +750
.1u Tim Means Rd 2 +1400

[Hugo de Naranja]

Best of luck LB. I like Means as a fighter too but win or lose tomorrow he is absolutely nowhere near the WW Top 10. I'd say he's borderline top 40 at WW.

[Sanity Check]

Means looked --done-- in his last fight.

I'll be surprised if he can rebound.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Derrick Lewis vs. Aleksei Oleinik


Omari Akhmedov vs. Chris Weidman


Maki Pitolo vs. Darren Stewart


Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzman


Nasrat Haqparast vs. Alex Munoz

[frankieunits2685]

Fight night !!!!

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

[JIBBBY]

Prelim write ups.. MMAMANIA






145 lbs.: Justin Jaynes vs. Gavin Tucker

Despite entering the cage on the heels of four consecutive first-round victories, Justin Jaynes (16-4) ended up an underdog after replacing Matt Frevola against Frank Camacho. Undaunted, “Guitar Hero” smashed “The Crank” in just 41 seconds to earn “Performance of the Night” and his tenth win in 11 fights.
All but one of his pro finishes have come in the first round.
Gavin Tucker (11-1) looked poised for a serious Featherweight run after cruising past Sam Sicilia, only to suffer a nasty beating from Rick Glenn his next time out. He returned to action almost two years later against Seung Woo Choi, whom Tucker choked out for his fifth pro submission victory.
This will be his first fight in more than 12 months.
I’ll admit to writing off Tucker before the Choi fight — the Glenn debacle was the sort of mauling that could end a career in a single night. To his credit, “Guv’nor” turned in a solid, well-rounded performance that culminated in a decisive win. If that was the product of Tucker successfully rebuilding and not Choi’s deficiencies, he should comfortably beat Jaynes the way he did fellow free-swinging wrestler Sicilia.
Beyond being the smoother operator on the feet and a capable-enough wrestler, Tucker also has far more experience actually making the Featherweight limit. Indeed, Jaynes has spent his whole career between 155 and 170 pounds, including a 165-pound Catchweight just two fights back. With a clear technical edge and an opponent entering unfamiliar territory, Tucker takes a wide decision.
Prediction: Tucker via unanimous decision
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145 lbs.: Youssef Zalal vs. Peter Barrett

An impressive flying knee knockout of Jaime Hernandez brought Youssef Zalal (9-2) to the Octagon, where he debuted with a dominant decision over Austin Lingo in February. He made it two-for-two not long after by out-dueling veteran Jordan Griffin in an entertaining affair.
He steps in for Steve Garcia on less than two weeks’ notice for his second bout in two months.
Peter Barrett (11-3) got off to an 8-0 professional start before dropping three of his next four, all of them inside the distance. He got back on track with a knockout of Zach DiSabatino, then grappled his way past unbeaten Sang Hoon Yoo on the Contender Series.
“Slippery Pete” has knocked out seven opponents as a professional and ends a nearly year-long layoff on Saturday evening.
“The Moroccan Devil” has really impressed me in the Octagon thus far, especially against Griffin. I expected Zalal to struggle with the latter’s aggressive grappling attack, but he instead maintained his composure and turned in a quality performance. He takes a step down against Barrett, whose shoddy takedown defense and unspectacular striking make him easy pickings.
I genuinely do not see an avenue of victory for Barrett — Zalal has a clear technical edge in the stand up and can likely take him down whenever the fancy strikes him. The Factory X-trained product makes it 3-0 in the Octagon in comfortable fashion.
Prediction: Zalal via unanimous decision
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135 lbs.: Ali Al Qaisi vs. Irwin Rivera

Ali Al Qaisi (8-3) has enjoyed a strong run since starting his professional career winless (0-2), securing four submission finishes along the way. His last three wins took place in Brave CF, a promotion that’s also featured the likes of Khamzat Chimaev and Amir Albazi.
“Royal Fighter” stands two inches taller than Irwin Rivera (9-5) at 5’8.”
Though he started his run in Titan FC with a leg injury, “The Beast” ultimately won and defended the promotion’s Bantamweight title in a three-fight stretch. He moved up to 145 pounds for his short-notice Octagon debut, which saw him last the distance but struggle to close the distance against kickboxing veteran Giga Chikadze.
He has scored five professional victories, including his last three, by (technical) knockout.
There isn’t much free footage of Al Qaisi’s recent efforts out there and I can’t say that what I did manage to find impressed me. Despite a Sanda background that reportedly earned him two world championships, he seems generally content to plod along with a high guard and wait for the opportunity to hit a reactive takedown. That’s not going to work against Rivera, who both scrambles well and can do some serious damage when allowed to lead the dance.
Now that he’s fighting someone his own size, Rivera should find far more success than in his Octagon debut. Al Qaisi may land some early takedowns, but Rivera’s power, cardio and ability to get out of dangerous patches should carry him past a rough start. “The Beast” steadily overwhelms him for a late finish.
Prediction: Rivera via second-round technical knockout



170 lbs.: Tim Means vs. Laureano Staropoli

Recent sailing has not been smooth for Tim Means (29-12-1), who finds himself 3-5 (1 NC) since an impressive 6-1 run. His most recent effort pitted him against late-notice foe Daniel Rodriguez, who hurt Means in the second round before finishing him with a guillotine choke.
“The Dirty Bird” has knocked out 19 pro foes and submitted five others.
Laureano Staropoli (9-2) got off to a red-hot Octagon start in 2018, brawling his way past Hector Aldana and Thiago Alves to establish himself as a credible Welterweight threat. The momentum failed to carry him past Muslim Salikhov, resulting in a decision loss in Singapore.
“Pepi” gives up an inch of height and 3.5 inches of reach to Means.
This fight is essentially a referendum on how much Means has left in the tank. He has a clear technical edge on Staropoli on top of his reach advantage, but falling to an ostensibly far lesser striker in Daniel Rodriguez is cause for concern.
At the same time, it’s worth noting that Staropoli’s only UFC wins came over Hector Aldana — who’s 0-3 in the Octagon — and a thoroughly shot Thiago Alves. “Pepi” was decisively outclassed by Salikhov, even surrendering three takedowns to the Kung Fu specialist. That should give Means plenty of confidence, as he’s got some wrestling in his back pocket alongside the Muay Thai. His length, technique and versatility get him back in the win column.
Prediction: Means via unanimous decision
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155 lbs.: Nasrat Haqparast vs. Alex Munoz

A loss to Marcin Held in his short-notice UFC debut didn’t stop Nasrat Haqparast (11-3) from punching his way into title contention with three consecutive wins, among them a bonus-winning knockout of Joaquim Silva in Newark. The run wasn’t to last, as the surging Drew Dober put Haqparast down just 70 seconds into their fight.
The Tristar-trained product has scored nine professional wins by form of knockout.
Team Alpha Male’s Alex Munoz (6-0) received a “Contender Series” headlining slot against Nick Newell in 2018, beating the former World Series of Fighting (WSOF) standout but failing to secure a contract. He would not fight again until almost 15 months later, when he took a unanimous decision over Troy Lamson in Honolulu.
He was originally slated to debut against Luis Pena in February, only to withdraw because of injury.
Losing to Dober — who’s 6-1 in his last seven and really coming into his own as a contender — isn’t cause to write Haqparast off. He remains a blue-chip talent with some of the most vicious hands in the Lightweight division and certainly has the tools to dispatch Munoz. Though the Alpha Male product is a very capable wrestler and has developed a solid counter-striking game, Haqparast’s speed and power look like far more than he can handle.
Munoz’s best chances lie in using his smothering top control to grind out long stretches of the fight on the mat, but Haqparast has proven difficult to wrangle since the Held defeat. The way Munoz appeared to fade down the stretch against Lamson last time out suggests that he might not have the gas tank to keep up with Haqparast’s high-volume offense, so even if he does find some early grappling success, expect Haqparast to wear him down for a finish late in the second or early in the third.
Prediction: Haqparast via second-round technical knockout
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185 lbs.: Andrew Sanchez vs. Wellington Turman

Andrew Sanchez (11-5) enjoyed a dominant run through The Ultimate Fighter 23, beating the touted Phil Hawes and Khalil Rountree en route to tournament victory. It’s been a rougher road in the Octagon itself, as he’s lost three of his last five and been stopped twice.
“El Dirte” will have one inch of height and four inches of reach on Wellington Turman (16-3).
Brazil’s “Prodigy” entered the UFC on short notice, replacing John Philips against Karl Roberson and fighting his way to a narrow split decision loss. He entered his sophomore bout against Markus Perez as the underdog, but came on strong to take a decision over the former LFA champ in Sao Paulo.
Seven of his professional wins have come via submission.
The great tragedy of Andrew Sanchez is that he has some genuinely elite skills: heavy hands and quality wrestling combine to make what should be a contender-worthy game. Unfortunately, he’s held back by painfully shoddy cardio.
Luckily for him, this is the sort of fight in which he’ll excel. The three men who beat him in the Octagon, Anthony Smith, Ryan Janes and Marvin Vettori, are all known for their pace and striking volume. Turman, on the other hand, isn’t. Indeed, he’s a grinder to the core, attempting a combined 16 takedowns in his last two appearances. Against Sanchez — who has never been taken down in UFC — that’s not going to cut it. “El Dirte” figures to land the better punches on the feet and control the wrestling to take a wide decision.
Prediction: Sanchez via unanimous decision

[JIBBBY]

Middleweight: Darren Stewart vs. Maki Pitolo

Best Win for Stewart? Deron Winn For Pitolo? Charles Byrd
Current Streak: In a strange circumstance, Stewart lost his last UFC bout during a Cage Warriors event (COVID, amiright?), while Pitolo rebounded to score his first UFC win last time out
X-Factor: Pitolo’s inconsistency
How these two match up: With 14 knockout wins between them, action is expected.
Stewart started his UFC career a miserable 0-3 (1), but a “Fight of the Night” winner and change in weight class kept him on the roster. Stewart proved this a smart decision, winning four of his next five bouts before the aforementioned weird fight with Bartosz Fabinski.
“The Dentist” is a scrapper, an athletic puncher with a real flair for clinch violence.
As for Pitolo, it’s been difficult to get a real read on “Coconut Bombz.” He’s definitely an aggressive bruiser who likes to punch in the pocket, but he was thoroughly out-struck in his UFC debut by a Welterweight. His follow up win over Byrd was more impressive work, and hopefully he’s able to keep that flow going.
This is going to be fun. Both men like violent battles in close distance. Sure, they’ll occasionally try to run a double along the fence, but they’re far more interested in jamming their foe into the fence and firing punishing shots.
At close distance, Stewart tends to do major work with elbows, whereas Pitolo likes body shots. That could make for some real interesting exchanges overall, but I cannot help but feel that Stewart simply hits harder and is more durable. He may get put on his back at some point or lose a round, but when Stewart strings together big shots, his foes tend to fall down.
I don’t see Pitolo having the defense to avoid those heavy blows.
Prediction: Stewart via knockout
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Women’s Bantamweight: Yana Kunitskaya vs. Julija Stoliarenko

Best Win for Kunitskaya? Marion Reneau For Stoliarenko? Lisa Verzosa
Current Streak: Kunitskaya came up short last time, while Stoliarenko won her last five bouts on the regional scene
X-Factor: Stoliarenko accepted the bout on short-notice
How these two match up: This bout is better than I first realized.
Kunitskaya was sacrificed to Cris Cyborg in her debut, but since moving back down to 135 pounds, she’s proven her talent. Kunitskaya is a long-time martial artist with quality kickboxer, but her takedowns and quality clinch work have been equally important to her recent success.
Also, she’s been dating and training with Thiago Santos for a while now, so perhaps we’ll see some of that “Marreta” power in her kicks.
Stoliarenko is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt who has scored eight submissions in nine wins — you could be forgiven for thinking she’s just a grappler. However, she’s also an unbeaten champion in Lethwei, the absolutely violent Burmese martial art that involves bare knuckle punches and headbutts!
Full disclosure: I don’t know a damn thing about the women’s Lethwei scene in Japan. Was the competition level high? Terrible? Who can say, but that’s pretty cool regardless!
At any rate, Kunitskaya is one of the better Bantamweights on the roster. She’s a good size for the division with a well-rounded mix of skills that are designed to win rounds. She can fight hard for three rounds.
That’s a major ask for an opponent who took the fight on less than two week’s notice.
Prediction: Kunitskaya via decision
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Lightweight: Beneil Dariush vs. Scott Holtzmann

Best Win for Dariush? Carlos Diego Ferreira For Holtzmann? Jim Miller
Current Streak: Dariush has won four straight, while Holtzmann has won two in a row
X-Factor: Dariush’s durability is something of a question mark
How these two match up: This has all the makings of an awesome Lightweight battle.
Dariush had a rough streak a couple years back that halted his rise through the ranks, but he’s rebounded incredible well and looks more dangerous than ever! Dariush is a killer on the mats with excellent jiu-jitsu. He’s almost as dangerous on the feet, a nasty Southpaw kickboxer with major power from all his left side weapons.
“Hot Sauce” is similarly riding a wave of momentum, having put on really strong performances in the last two years or so. Holtzmann is aggressive, a bruiser that wants nothing more than to exchange within the pocket, where he’s quite tricky in setting up his power shots.
This is such an interesting fight, because both men have clear paths to victory. Holtzmann has historically struggled with being trapped on his back — Dariush is a very solid wrestler with excellent top control. Alternatively, Dariush has lost several fights to hard punchers who he was unable to finish early on. Holtzmann is a tough customer, and he throws bricks!
Further muddying the waters is the fact that both men have really improved on their weaknesses.
Ultimately, Dariush seems the more dangerous man. He’s almost certainly going to win the first round, and there’s a solid chance he finishes the fight at the point. If he doesn’t, well, he only has to win one more and avoid getting clobbered to see his hand raised.
In a tough and competitive fight, picking the man with more ways to win isn’t a bad move.
Prediction: Dariush via submission

[frankieunits2685]

Couple more hours. Prelims should start around 6 eastern

[PaperTrail07]

excited for this card....yessir.....needed my mind erased from last night ...ITS A NEW DAY LOL....

Couple more hours. Prelims should start around 6 eastern

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 32: Oliynik vs. Lewis Picks:
Irwin Rivera Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Youssef Zalal Round 2 Submission (D’Arce Choke)
Gavin Tucker Unanimous Decision (30-27 x3)
Wellington Turman Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Nasrat Haqparast Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Kevin Holland Round 3 TKO (Punches)
Laureano Staropoli Split Decision (29-28 x2, 28-29)
Beneil Dariush Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28 x2)
Yana Kunitskaya Unanimous Decision (30-27 x2, 29-28)
Darren Stewart Unanimous Decision (29-28 x3)
Omari Akhmedov Round 1 KO (Punches)
Alexei Oliynik Round 1 Submission (Scarf Hold Headlock)

[Hugo de Naranja]

UFC on ESPN+ 32: Oliynik vs. Lewis

ESPN+ Prelims:

Fight #1: I. Rivera vs. Al Qaisi (DEBUT)
I. Rivera (-188) 1.88u to win 1u

Hedge:
Al Qaisi Submission (+950) 0.25u

Fight #2: Zalal vs. Barrett (DEBUT)
Zalal Submission (+300) 0.25u

Fight #3: Tucker vs. Jaynes
Tucker (-145) 1.09u to win 0.75u

Fight #4: Turman vs. A. Sanchez
Turman (-150) 1.5u to win 1u
Turman Round 3 (+1515) 0.1u

Fight #5: Haqparast vs. Munoz (DEBUT)
Haqparast Decision (+205) 0.5u

Fight #6: Holland vs. Buckley (DEBUT)
Holland+Buckley Over 1.5 (-123) 1.23u to win 1u

Fight #7: Staropoli vs. Means
No Bet

Main Card:

Fight #8: Dariush vs. Holtzman
Dariush (-147) 2.21u to win 1.5u
Dariush -3.5 (-110) 1.65u to win 1.5u
Dariush Decision (+301) 1.35u

Hedge(s):
Holtzman Scorecards = No Action (+253) 0.5u
Holtzman ITD (+500) 0.5u
Holtzman Round 3 (+2050) 0.1u

Fight #9: Kunitskaya vs. Stoliarenko
Kunitskaya KO/TKO (+510) 0.25u

Fight #10: Stewart vs. Pitolo
No Bet

Fight #11: Akhmedov vs. Weidman
Akhmedov+Weidman Won’t Go Distance (+125) 2u
Akhmedov KO/TKO (+245) 1u

Hedge:
Weidman ITD (+335) 0.3u

Fight #12: Oliynik vs. Lewis
Oliynik (+250) 1u
Oliynik Submission (+250) 0.25u
Oliynik Round 1 (+475) 0.25u

Hedge(s):
Lewis KO/TKO (-135) 1.35u to win 1u
Lewis Round 1 (+325) 0.25u

Straight Parlays:
Zalal/Kunitskaya (-124) 1.56u to win 1.25u

Multi-Event Parlays
Chandler/Oliynik+Lewis WSR4 (-119) 0.89u to win 0.75u
Brunson/Oliynik (+1151) 0.27u
Brunson/Oliynik (+1346) 0.23u

[richie360]

Anyone’s fight pass playing up?

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Betting:
Al Qaisi (-116) 0.58u to win 0.5u after R1

[frankieunits2685]

Anyone’s fight pass playing up?

Watching on ESPN+

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Betting:
Al Qaisi (-165) 0.48u to win 0.29u after R2

[spurginobili]

Live Betting:
Al Qaisi (-116) 0.58u to win 0.5u after R1

Live Betting:
Al Qaisi (-165) 0.48u to win 0.29u after R2

That's what I thought Hugo

I scored 1 & 2 for Al Qaisi


I had Rivera ITD & in a parlay

[63M1N1]

Two plays for me tonight.
Fading zalal for 0.8u and on jaynes for 2.5u.

[Sanity Check]

I scored 1 & 2 for Al Qaisi

+1

..

[Sanity Check]

Dropped him with a spinning back kick.

Wow.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Betting:
Zalal Decision (-124) 0.25u to win 0.2u after R1

[63M1N1]

Great play Hugo

[Sanity Check]

Joe Lauzon in Barrett's corner.

No wrestlers in Lauzon's gym afaik. All his guys get outwrestled.

[frankieunits2685]

Pizza and wings will be ordered shortly. Cold beer is in the fridge. Let’s do it

[63M1N1]

Lets go jaynes

[Hugo de Naranja]

Great play Hugo

Ty sir

[Hugo de Naranja]

Added Hedge:
A. Sanchez Decision (+187) 0.5u

[Thrilla]

Jibbby!

[frankieunits2685]

Leaning toward the Brazilian this fight, but I’m going to lay off. Sanchez has fought some respectable opponents.

[Hugo de Naranja]

Live Betting:
Sanchez (+130) 0.5u during R1

[frankieunits2685]

Good night.

[Kermit]

God Damn.

[spurginobili]

Got Munoz next ITD +560

[frankieunits2685]

Dariush ML -200 (2u)